| 1. |
- Annan, James D., et al.
(author)
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What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?
- 2020
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 11:3, s. 709-719
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We examine what can be learnt about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface air temperature record over the instrumental period, from around 1880 to the present. While many previous studies have used trends in observational time series to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity, it has also been argued that temporal variability may also be a powerful constraint. We explore this question in the context of a simple widely used energy balance model of the climate system. We consider two recently proposed summary measures of variability and also show how the full information content can be optimally used in this idealised scenario. We find that the constraint provided by variability is inherently skewed, and its power is inversely related to the sensitivity itself, discriminating most strongly between low sensitivity values and weakening substantially for higher values. It is only when the sensitivity is very low that the variability can provide a tight constraint. Our investigations take the form of perfect model experiments, in which we make the optimistic assumption that the model is structurally perfect and all uncertainties (including the true parameter values and nature of internal variability noise) are correctly characterised. Therefore the results might be interpreted as a best-case scenario for what we can learn from variability, rather than a realistic estimate of this. In these experiments, we find that for a moderate sensitivity of 2.5 degrees C, a 150-year time series of pure internal variability will typically support an estimate with a 5 %-95% range of around 5 degrees C (e.g. 1.9-6.8 degrees C). Total variability including that due to the forced response, as inferred from the detrended observational record, can provide a stronger constraint with an equivalent 5 %-95 % posterior range of around 4 degrees C (e.g. 1.8-6.0 degrees C) even when uncertainty in aerosol forcing is considered. Using a statistical summary of variability based on autocorrelation and the magnitude of residuals after detrending proves somewhat less powerful as a constraint than the full time series in both situations. Our results support the analysis of variability as a potentially useful tool in helping to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity but suggest caution in the interpretation of precise results.
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| 2. |
- Blanco, Joaquin, 1985-, et al.
(author)
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A Cloud-Controlling Factor Perspective on the Hemispheric Asymmetry of Extratropical Cloud Albedo
- 2023
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In: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 36:6, s. 1793-1804
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Northern and Southern Hemispheres reflect on average almost equal amounts of sunlight due to compensating hemispheric asymmetries in clear-sky and cloud albedo. Recent work indicates that the cloud albedo asymmetry is largely due to clouds in extratropical oceanic regions. Here, we investigate the proximate causes of this extratropical cloud albedo asymmetry using a cloud-controlling factor (CCF) approach. We develop a simple index that measures the skill of CCFs, either individually or in combination, in predicting the asymmetry. The index captures the contribution to the asymmetry due to interhemispheric differences in the probability distribution function of daily CCF values. Cloud albedo is quantified using daily MODIS satellite retrievals, and is related to range of CCFs derived from the ERA5 product. We find that sea surface temperature is the CCF that individually explains the largest fraction of the asymmetry, followed by surface wind. The asymmetry is predominantly due to low clouds, and our results are consistent with prior local-scale modeling work showing that marine boundary layer clouds become thicker and more extensive as surface wind increases and surface temperature cools. The asymmetry is consistent with large-scale control of storm-track intensity and surface winds by meridional temperature gradients: persistently cold and windy conditions in the Southern Hemisphere keep cloud albedo high year-round. Our results have important implications for global-scale cloud feedbacks and contribute to efforts to develop a theory for planetary albedo and its symmetry.
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| 3. |
- Datseris, George, et al.
(author)
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Minimal Recipes for Global Cloudiness
- 2022
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 49:20
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Clouds are primary modulators of Earth's energy balance. It is thus important to understand the links connecting variabilities in cloudiness to variabilities in other state variables of the climate system, and also describe how these links would change in a changing climate. A conceptual model of global cloudiness can help elucidate these points. In this work we derive simple representations of cloudiness, that can be useful in creating a theory of global cloudiness. These representations illustrate how both spatial and temporal variability of cloudiness can be expressed in terms of basic state variables. Specifically, cloud albedo is captured by a nonlinear combination of pressure velocity and a measure of the low-level stability, and cloud longwave effect is captured by surface temperature, pressure velocity, and standard deviation of pressure velocity. We conclude with a short discussion on the usefulness of this work in the context of global warming response studies.
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| 4. |
- Fiedler, Stephanie, et al.
(author)
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Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
- 2020
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In: Monthly Weather Review. - 0027-0644 .- 1520-0493. ; 148:9, s. 3653-3680
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
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| 5. |
- Hadas, Or, et al.
(author)
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The role of baroclinic activity in controlling Earth's albedo in the present and future climates
- 2023
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 120:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Clouds are one of the most influential components of Earth's climate system. Specifically, the midlatitude clouds play a vital role in shaping Earth's albedo. This study investigates the connection between baroclinic activity, which dominates the midlatitude climate, and cloud-albedo and how it relates to Earth's existing hemispheric albedo symmetry. We show that baroclinic activity and cloud-albedo are highly correlated. By using Lagrangian tracking of cyclones and anticyclones and analyzing their individual cloud properties at different vertical levels, we explain why their cloud-albedo increases monotonically with intensity. We find that while for anticyclones, the relation between strength and cloudiness is mostly linear, for cyclones, in which clouds are more prevalent, the relation saturates with strength. Using the cloud-albedo strength relationships and the climatology of baroclinic activity, we demonstrate that the observed hemispheric difference in cloud-albedo is well explained by the difference in the population of cyclones and anticyclones, which counter-balances the difference in clear-sky albedo. Finally, we discuss the robustness of the hemispheric albedo symmetry in the future climate. Seemingly, the symmetry should break, as the northern hemisphere's storm track response differs from that of the southern hemisphere due to Arctic amplification. However, we show that the saturation of the cloud response to storm intensity implies that the increase in the skewness of the southern hemisphere storm distribution toward strong storms will decrease future cloud-albedo in the southern hemisphere. This complex response explains how albedo symmetry might persist even with the predicted asymmetric hemispheric change in baroclinicity under climate change.
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| 6. |
- Hohenegger, Cathy, et al.
(author)
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ICON-Sapphire : simulating the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and subkilometer scales
- 2023
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 16:2, s. 779-811
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- State-of-the-art Earth system models typically employ grid spacings of O(100 km), which is too coarse to explicitly resolve main drivers of the flow of energy and matter across the Earth system. In this paper, we present the new ICON-Sapphire model configuration, which targets a representation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions with a grid spacing of 10 km and finer. Through the use of selected simulation examples, we demonstrate that ICON-Sapphire can (i) be run coupled globally on seasonal timescales with a grid spacing of 5 km, on monthly timescales with a grid spacing of 2.5 km, and on daily timescales with a grid spacing of 1.25 km; (ii) resolve large eddies in the atmosphere using hectometer grid spacings on limited-area domains in atmosphere-only simulations; (iii) resolve submesoscale ocean eddies by using a global uniform grid of 1.25 km or a telescoping grid with the finest grid spacing at 530 m, the latter coupled to a uniform atmosphere; and (iv) simulate biogeochemistry in an ocean-only simulation integrated for 4 years at 10 km. Comparison of basic features of the climate system to observations reveals no obvious pitfalls, even though some observed aspects remain difficult to capture. The throughput of the coupled 5 km global simulation is 126 simulated days per day employing 21 % of the latest machine of the German Climate Computing Center. Extrapolating from these results, multi-decadal global simulations including interactive carbon are now possible, and short global simulations resolving large eddies in the atmosphere and submesoscale eddies in the ocean are within reach.
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| 7. |
- Karlsson, Johannes, 1978-
(author)
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The influence of clouds on Earth's radiation budget in global climate models
- 2009
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Considering the high sensitivity of climate to changes in cloudiness, the way clouds might change in a perturbed climate is important for the total temperature response. In fact, the cloud feedback has been identified as the main uncertainty in future projections, as simulated by global climate models. To increase the confidence of future scenario simulations it is necessary, although not sufficient, that the models manage to represent the present-day climate in a realistic manner. We compare the simulations of cloudiness to available observations in the marine subtropics and the Arctic, two regions in which changes in cloudiness are believed to have large impact on the climate. In terms of the annual cycle of Arctic cloud properties, climate models show large disagreement with each other and with observations. There exists a tentative across-model relationship, such that models with higher amounts of clouds in the winter are also associated with larger surface cloud forcing. However, across-model differences in the wintertime surface cloud forcing cannot explain differences in the simulated surface temperatures. Rather, we identify across-model differences in temperature and moisture properties of the air entering the Arctic region to be of greater importance. We find that climate models in general underestimate the amount of low clouds in the marine subtropics but still overestimate the regional averaged cloud radiative cooling. As a consequence we suggest that models are likely to overestimate the radiative response to changes in the cloudiness. We also demonstrate the potential of satellite derived cloud top heights to be used as model diagnostics in the climatologically important transition from stratus-topped to cumulus-topped marine boundary layers in the subtropics.
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| 8. |
- Mauritsen, Thorsten, et al.
(author)
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Climate feedback efficiency and synergy
- 2013
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In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 41:9-10, s. 2539-2554
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Earth's climate sensitivity to radiative forcing induced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 is determined by feedback mechanisms, including changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds and surface albedo, that act to either amplify or dampen the response. The climate system is frequently interpreted in terms of a simple energy balance model, in which it is assumed that individual feedback mechanisms are additive and act independently. Here we test these assumptions by systematically controlling, or locking, the radiative feedbacks in a state-of-the-art climate model. The method is shown to yield a near-perfect decomposition of change into partial temperature contributions pertaining to forcing and each of the feedbacks. In the studied model water vapor feedback stands for about half the temperature change, CO2-forcing about one third, while cloud and surface albedo feedback contributions are relatively small. We find a close correspondence between forcing, feedback and partial surface temperature response for the water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks, while the cloud feedback is inefficient in inducing surface temperature change. Analysis suggests that cloud-induced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with rising convective cloud anvils in a warming climate enhances the negative lapse-rate feedback, thereby offsetting some of the warming that would otherwise be attributable to this positive cloud feedback. By subsequently combining feedback mechanisms we find a positive synergy acting between the water vapor feedback and the cloud feedback; that is, the combined cloud and water vapor feedback is greater than the sum of its parts. Negative synergies surround the surface albedo feedback, as associated cloud and water vapor changes dampen the anticipated climate change induced by retreating snow and ice. Our results highlight the importance of treating the coupling between clouds, water vapor and temperature in a deepening troposphere.
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| 9. |
- Mauritsen, Thorsten, et al.
(author)
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Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2
- 2019
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In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. - 1942-2466. ; 11:4, s. 998-1038
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.
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| 10. |
- Mauritsen, Thorsten, et al.
(author)
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Early Development and Tuning of a Global Coupled Cloud Resolving Model, and its Fast Response to Increasing CO2
- 2022
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In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 74:1, s. 346-363
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since the dawn of functioning numerical dynamical atmosphere- and ocean models, their resolution has steadily increased, fed by an exponential growth in computational capabilities. However, because resolution of models is at all times limited by computational power a number of mostly small-scale or micro-scale processes have to be parameterised. Particularly those of atmospheric moist convection and ocean eddies are problematic when scientists seek to interpret output from model experiments. Here we present the first coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with sufficient resolution to dispose of moist convection and ocean eddy parameterisations. We describe the early development and discuss the challenges associated with conducting the simulations with a focus on tuning the global mean radiation balance in order to limit drifts. A four-month experiment with quadrupled CO2 is then compared with a ten-member ensemble of low-resolution simulations using MPI-ESM1.2-LR. We find broad similarities of the response, albeit with a more diversified spatial pattern with both stronger and weaker regional warming, as well as a sharpening of precipitation in the inter tropical convergence zone. These early results demonstrate that it is already now possible to learn from such coupled model experiments, even if short by nature.
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