| 1. |
- Lopez, Luis Fernandez, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers
- 2016
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Ingår i: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0092-8240 .- 1522-9602. ; 78:2, s. 185-209
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.
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| 2. |
- Massad, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
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| 3. |
- Massad, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data : Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks
- 2017
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Ingår i: Infectious Disease Modelling. - : Elsevier. - 2468-0427. ; 2:4, s. 441-454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes’ densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes’ density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.
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| 4. |
- Massad, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil
- 2014
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Ingår i: Memórias do instituto Oswaldo Cruz. - : FapUNIFESP (SciELO). - 0074-0276 .- 1678-8060. ; 109:3, s. 394-397
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.
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| 5. |
- Massad, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19
- 2020
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Ingår i: Epidemiology and Infection. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0950-2688 .- 1469-4409. ; 148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an averageR(0)= 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.
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| 6. |
- Struchiner, Claudio Jose, et al.
(författare)
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Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years : Population Growth, Climate and Mobility
- 2015
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.
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| 7. |
- Ximenes, Raphael, et al.
(författare)
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The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMC Infectious Diseases. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2334. ; 16:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.METHODS: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics.RESULTS: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.CONCLUSIONS: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
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