| 1. |
- Green, C., et al.
(författare)
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A Horizon Scan to Support Chemical Pollution-Related Policymaking for Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Economies
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. - : Wiley. - 0730-7268 .- 1552-8618. ; 42:6, s. 1212-1228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While chemicals are vital to modern society through materials, agriculture, textiles, new technology, medicines, and consumer goods, their use is not without risks. Unfortunately, our resources seem inadequate to address the breadth of chemical challenges to the environment and human health. Therefore, it is important we use our intelligence and knowledge wisely to prepare for what lies ahead. The present study used a Delphi-style approach to horizon-scan future chemical threats that need to be considered in the setting of chemicals and environmental policy, which involved a multidisciplinary, multisectoral, and multinational panel of 25 scientists and practitioners (mainly from the United Kingdom, Europe, and other industrialized nations) in a three-stage process. Fifteen issues were shortlisted (from a nominated list of 48), considered by the panel to hold global relevance. The issues span from the need for new chemical manufacturing (including transitioning to non-fossil-fuel feedstocks); challenges from novel materials, food imports, landfills, and tire wear; and opportunities from artificial intelligence, greater data transparency, and the weight-of-evidence approach. The 15 issues can be divided into three classes: new perspectives on historic but insufficiently appreciated chemicals/issues, new or relatively new products and their associated industries, and thinking through approaches we can use to meet these challenges. Chemicals are one threat among many that influence the environment and human health, and interlinkages with wider issues such as climate change and how we mitigate these were clear in this exercise. The horizon scan highlights the value of thinking broadly and consulting widely, considering systems approaches to ensure that interventions appreciate synergies and avoid harmful trade-offs in other areas. We recommend further collaboration between researchers, industry, regulators, and policymakers to perform horizon scanning to inform policymaking, to develop our ability to meet these challenges, and especially to extend the approach to consider also concerns from countries with developing economies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1-17. (c) 2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland.
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| 2. |
- Sumpter, N. A., et al.
(författare)
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Association of Gout Polygenic Risk Score With Age at Disease Onset and Tophaceous Disease in European and Polynesian Men With Gout
- 2023
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Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 75:5, s. 816-825
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. To determine whether a gout polygenic risk score (PRS) is associated with age at gout onset and tophaceous disease in European, East Polynesian, and West Polynesian men and women with gout. Methods. A 19-variant gout PRS was produced in 7 European gout cohorts (N = 4,016), 2 East Polynesian gout cohorts (N = 682), and 1 West Polynesian gout cohort (N = 490). Sex-stratified regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the PRS and age at gout onset and tophaceous disease. Results. The PRS was associated with earlier age at gout onset in men (beta = -3.61 in years per unit PRS [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -4.32, -2.90] in European men; beta = -6.35 [95% CI -8.91, -3.80] in East Polynesian men; beta = -3.51 [95% CI -5.46, -1.57] in West Polynesian men) but not in women (beta = 0.07 [95% CI -2.32, 2.45] in European women; beta = 0.20 [95% CI -7.21, 7.62] in East Polynesian women; beta -3.33 [95% CI -9.28, 2.62] in West Polynesian women). The PRS showed a positive association with tophaceous disease in men (odds ratio [OR] for the association 1.15 [95% CI 1.00, 1.31] in European men; OR 2.60 [95% CI 1.66, 4.06] in East Polynesian men; OR 1.53 [95% CI 1.07, 2.19] in West Polynesian men) but not in women (OR for the association 0.68 [95% CI 0.42, 1.10] in European women; OR 1.45 [95% CI 0.39, 5.36] in East Polynesian women). The PRS association with age at gout onset was robust to the removal of ABCG2 variants from the PRS in European and East Polynesian men (beta = -2.42 [95% CI -3.37, -1.46] and beta = -6.80 [95% CI -10.06, -3.55], respectively) but not in West Polynesian men (beta = -1.79 [95% CI -4.74, 1.16]). Conclusion. Genetic risk variants for gout also harbor risk for earlier age at gout onset and tophaceous disease in European and Polynesian men. Our findings suggest that earlier gout onset involves the accumulation of gout risk alleles in men but perhaps not in women, and that this genetic risk is shared across multiple ancestral groups.
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| 3. |
- Hanson, M. L., et al.
(författare)
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How we can make ecotoxicology more valuable to environmental protection
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 578, s. 228-235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is increasing awareness that the value of peer-reviewed scientific literature is not consistent, resulting in a growing desire to improve the practice and reporting of studies. This is especially important in the field of ecotoxicology, where regulatory decisions can be partly based on data from the peer-reviewed literature, with wide-reaching implications for environmental protection. Our objective is to improve the reporting of ecotoxicology studies so that they can be appropriately utilized in a fair and transparent fashion, based on their reliability and relevance. We propose a series of nine reporting requirements, followed by a set of recommendations for adoption by the ecotoxicology community. These reporting requirements will provide clarity on the the test chemical, experimental design and conditions, chemical identification, test organisms, exposure confirmation, measurable endpoints, how data are presented, data availability and statistical analysis. Providing these specific details will allow for a fuller assessment of the reliability and relevance of the studies, including limitations. Recommendations for the implementation of these reporting requirements are provided herein for practitioners, journals, reviewers, regulators, stakeholders, funders, and professional societies. If applied, our recommendations will improve the quality of ecotoxicology studies and their value to environmental protection.
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| 4. |
- Herbert-Read, J. E., et al.
(författare)
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Escape path complexity and its context dependency in Pacific blue-eyes (Pseudomugil signifer)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Biology. - : The Company of Biologists. - 0022-0949 .- 1477-9145. ; 220:11, s. 2076-2081
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The escape paths prey animals take following a predatory attack appear to be highly unpredictable - a property that has been described as 'protean behaviour'. Here, we present a method of quantifying the escape paths of individual animals using a path complexity approach. When individual fish (Pseudomugil signifer) were attacked, we found that a fish's movement path rapidly increased in complexity following the attack. This path complexity remained elevated (indicating a more unpredictable path) for a sustained period (at least 10 s) after the attack. The complexity of the path was context dependent: paths were more complex when attacks were made closer to the fish, suggesting that these responses are tailored to the perceived level of threat. We separated out the components of speed and turning rate changes to determine which of these components contributed to the overall increase in path complexity following an attack. We found that both speed and turning rate measures contributed similarly to an individual's path complexity in absolute terms. Overall, our work highlights the context-dependent escape responses that animals use to avoid predators, and also provides a method for quantifying the escape paths of animals.
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| 5. |
- Herbert-Read, James E., et al.
(författare)
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Inferring the rules of interaction of shoaling fish
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 108:46, s. 18726-18731
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Collective motion, where large numbers of individuals move synchronously together, is achieved when individuals adopt interaction rules that determine how they respond to their neighbors' movements and positions. These rules determine how group-living animals move, make decisions, and transmit information between individuals. Nonetheless, few studies have explicitly determined these interaction rules in moving groups, and very little is known about the interaction rules of fish. Here, we identify three key rules for the social interactions of mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki): (i) Attraction forces are important in maintaining group cohesion, while we find only weak evidence that fish align with their neighbor's orientation; (ii) repulsion is mediated principally by changes in speed; (iii) although the positions and directions of all shoal members are highly correlated, individuals only respond to their single nearest neighbor. The last two of these rules are different from the classical models of collective animal motion, raising new questions about how fish and other animals self-organize on the move.
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| 6. |
- Jones, Robert P., et al.
(författare)
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Patterns of Recurrence After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma : A Secondary Analysis of the ESPAC-4 Randomized Adjuvant Chemotherapy Trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Surgery. - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 2168-6254 .- 2168-6262. ; 154:11, s. 1038-1048
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: The patterns of disease recurrence after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with adjuvant chemotherapy remain unclear.Objective: To define patterns of recurrence after adjuvant chemotherapy and the association with survival.Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospectively collected data from the phase 3 European Study Group for Pancreatic Cancer 4 adjuvant clinical trial, an international multicenter study. The study included 730 patients who had resection and adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer. Data were analyzed between July 2017 and May 2019.Interventions: Randomization to adjuvant gemcitabine or gemcitabine plus capecitabine.Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival, recurrence, and sites of recurrence.Results: Of the 730 patients, median age was 65 years (range 37-81 years), 414 were men (57%), and 316 were women (43%). The median follow-up time from randomization was 43.2 months (95% CI, 39.7-45.5 months), with overall survival from time of surgery of 27.9 months (95% CI, 24.8-29.9 months) with gemcitabine and 30.2 months (95% CI, 25.8-33.5 months) with the combination (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.98; P=.03). The 5-year survival estimates were 17.1% (95% CI, 11.6%-23.5%) and 28.0% (22.0%-34.3%), respectively. Recurrence occurred in 479 patients (65.6%); another 78 patients (10.7%) died without recurrence. Local recurrence occurred at a median of 11.63 months (95% CI, 10.05-12.19 months), significantly different from those with distant recurrence with a median of 9.49 months (95% CI, 8.44-10.71 months) (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.45; P=.04). Following recurrence, the median survival was 9.36 months (95% CI, 8.08-10.48 months) for local recurrence and 8.94 months (95% CI, 7.82-11.17 months) with distant recurrence (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.73-1.09; P=.27). The median overall survival of patients with distant-only recurrence (23.03 months; 95% CI, 19.55-25.85 months) or local with distant recurrence (23.82 months; 95% CI, 17.48-28.32 months) was not significantly different from those with only local recurrence (24.83 months; 95% CI, 22.96-27.63 months) (P=.85 and P=.35, respectively). Gemcitabine plus capecitabine had a 21% reduction of death following recurrence compared with monotherapy (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98; P=.03).Conclusions and Relevance: There were no significant differences between the time to recurrence and subsequent and overall survival between local and distant recurrence. Pancreatic cancer behaves as a systemic disease requiring effective systemic therapy after resection.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00058201, EudraCT 2007-004299-38, and ISRCTN 96397434. This secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial investigates patterns of recurrence after adjuvant chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer and the association with survival.
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| 7. |
- Mann, R. P., et al.
(författare)
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A model comparison reveals dynamic social information drives the movements of humbug damselfish (Dascyllus aruanus)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of the Royal Society Interface. - : The Royal Society. - 1742-5689 .- 1742-5662. ; 11:90, s. 20130794-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Animals make use a range of social information to inform their movement decisions. One common movement rule, found across many different species, is that the probability that an individual moves to an area increases with the number of conspecifics there. However, in many cases, it remains unclear what social cues produce this and other similar movement rules. Here, we investigate what cues are used by damselfish (Dascyllus aruanus) when repeatedly crossing back and forth between two coral patches in an experimental arena. We find that an individual's decision to move is best predicted by the recent movements of conspecifics either to or from that individual's current habitat. Rather than actively seeking attachment to a larger group, individuals are instead prioritizing highly local and dynamic information with very limited spatial and temporal ranges. By reanalysing data in which the same species crossed for the first time to a new coral patch, we show that the individuals use static cues in this case. This suggests that these fish alter their information usage according to the structure and familiarity of their environment by using stable information when moving to a novel area and localized dynamic information when moving between familiar areas.
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| 8. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection
- 2013
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 9:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.
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| 9. |
- Mann, Richard P., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection
- 2012
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 8:1, s. e1002308-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.
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| 10. |
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