| 1. |
- Tran, K. B., et al.
(författare)
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Alvarez, E. M., et al.
(författare)
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The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 23:1, s. 27-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Sheena, B. S., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:9, s. 796-829
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-ofsample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4 center dot 1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 center dot 7 to 4 center dot 5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31 center dot 3% (29 center dot 0 to 33 center dot 9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76 center dot 8% (76 center dot 2 to 77 center dot 5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5 center dot 9% [-5 center dot 6 to 19 center dot 2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2 center dot 9% [-5 center dot 9 to 11 center dot 3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.
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| 5. |
- Obers, Niels A., et al.
(författare)
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Quantum gravity phenomenology at the dawn of the multi-messenger era—A review
- 2022
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Ingår i: Progress in Particle and Nuclear Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0146-6410 .- 1873-2224. ; 125
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The exploration of the universe has recently entered a new era thanks to the multi-messenger paradigm, characterized by a continuous increase in the quantity and quality of experimental data that is obtained by the detection of the various cosmic messengers (photons, neutrinos, cosmic rays and gravitational waves) from numerous origins. They give us information about their sources in the universe and the properties of the intergalactic medium. Moreover, multi-messenger astronomy opens up the possibility to search for phenomenological signatures of quantum gravity. On the one hand, the most energetic events allow us to test our physical theories at energy regimes which are not directly accessible in accelerators; on the other hand, tiny effects in the propagation of very high energy particles could be amplified by cosmological distances. After decades of merely theoretical investigations, the possibility of obtaining phenomenological indications of Planck-scale effects is a revolutionary step in the quest for a quantum theory of gravity, but it requires cooperation between different communities of physicists (both theoretical and experimental). This review, prepared within the COST Action CA18108 “Quantum gravity phenomenology in the multi-messenger approach”, is aimed at promoting this cooperation by giving a state-of-the art account of the interdisciplinary expertise that is needed in the effective search of quantum gravity footprints in the production, propagation and detection of cosmic messengers.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Vernant, P, et al.
(författare)
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Deciphering oblique shortening of central Alborz in Iran using geodetic data
- 2004
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Ingår i: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier. - 0012-821X. ; 223:1-2, s. 177-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Alborz is a narrow (100 km) and elevated (3000 m) mountain belt which accommodates the differential motion between the Sanandaj–Sirjan zone in central Iran and the South Caspian basin. GPS measurements of 12 geodetic sites in Central Alborz between 2000 and 2002 allow to constrain the motion of the belt with respect to western Eurasia. One site velocity on the Caspian shoreline suggests that the South Caspian basin moves northwest at a rate of 6±2 mm/year with respect to western Eurasia. North–South shortening across the Alborz occurs at 5±2 mm/year. To the South, deformation seems to extend beyond the piedmont area, probably due to active thrusting on the Pishva fault. We also observe a left-lateral shear of the overall belt at a rate of 4±2 mm/year, consistent with the geological motion observed along E–W active strike-slip faults inside the belt (e.g., the Mosha fault).
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| 8. |
- Vernant, P, et al.
(författare)
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Present-day crustal deformation and plate kinematics in the Middle East constrained by GPS measurements in Iran and northern Oman
- 2004
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Ingår i: Geophysical Journal International. - 0956-540X .- 1365-246X. ; 157:1, s. 381-398
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A network of 27 GPS sites was implemented in Iran and northern Oman to measure displacements in this part of the Alpine–Himalayan mountain belt. We present and interpret the results of two surveys performed in 1999 September and 2001 October. GPS sites in Oman show northward motion of the Arabian Plate relative to Eurasia slower than the NUVEL-1A estimates (e.g. 22 ± 2 mm yr−1 at N8°± 5°E instead of 30.5 mm yr−1 at N6°E at Bahrain longitude). We define a GPS Arabia–Eurasia Euler vector of 27.9°± 0.5°N, 19.5°± 1.4°E, 0.41°± 0.1° Myr−1. The Arabia–Eurasia convergence is accommodated differently in eastern and western Iran. East of 58°E, most of the shortening is accommodated by the Makran subduction zone (19.5 ± 2 mm yr−1) and less by the Kopet-Dag (6.5 ± 2 mm yr−1). West of 58°E, the deformation is distributed in separate fold and thrust belts. At the longitude of Tehran, the Zagros and the Alborz mountain ranges accommodate 6.5 ± 2 mm yr−1 and 8 ± 2 mm yr−1 respectively. The right-lateral displacement along the Main Recent Fault in the northern Zagros is about 3 ± 2 mm yr−1, smaller than what was generally expected. By contrast, large right-lateral displacement takes place in northwestern Iran (up to 8 ± mm yr−1). The Central Iranian Block is characterized by coherent plate motion (internal deformation <2 mm yr−1). Sites east of 61°E show very low displacements relative to Eurasia. The kinematic contrast between eastern and western Iran is accommodated by strike-slip motions along the Lut Block. To the south, the transition zone between Zagros and Makran is under transpression with right-lateral displacements of 11 ± 2 mm yr−1.
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| 9. |
- Khorrami, F., et al.
(författare)
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An up-to-date block model and strain rate map of Iran using integrated campaign-mode and permanent GPS velocities
- 2019
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Ingår i: 27th IUGG General Assembly.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Iran accommodates a large part of the ongoing Arabia-Eurasia collision deformation. Because of such active tectonics, the country suffers from intensive seismicity and frequent destructive earthquakes in different locations.To study further the crustal deformation in Iran, we processed the data collected during 10 years (2006-2015) from the Iranian Permanent GNSS Network and combined them with previously published velocity solutions from GPS survey measurements during 1997–2013. We analysed this velocity field using a continuum approach to compute a new strain rate map for this region and we designed a block model based on the main geological, morphological, and seismic structures. Comparison between both approaches suggests similar results and allow us to present the first comprehensive first order fault slip rate estimates for the whole of Iran. Our results confirm most of the results from previous geodetic studies. Moreover, we also show a trade-off between the coupling ratio of the Iranian Makran subduction interface and the kinematic of the faults north of the Makran in the Jazmurian depression. Although too scarce to accurately estimate a coupling ratio, we show that coupling higher than 0.4 on the plate interface down to a depth of 25 km will induce extension on the E-W faults in the Jazmurian region. However, the sites close to the shoreline suggest a low coupling ratio, hence the coupling on this plate interface is probably more complicated than previously described and the Iranian Makran subduction interface mechanical behaviour might be similar to that on the Hellenic subduction zone.
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| 10. |
- Nilforoushan, Faramarz, et al.
(författare)
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GPS network monitors the Arabia-Eurasia collision deformation in Iran
- 2003
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Ingår i: Journal of Geodesy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0949-7714 .- 1432-1394. ; 77, s. 411-422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rate of crustal deformation in Iran due to the Arabia–Eurasia collision is estimated. The results are based on new global positioning system (GPS) data. In order to address the problem of the distribution of the deformation in Iran, Iranian and French research organizations have carried out the first large-scale GPS survey of Iran. A GPS network of 28 sites (25 in Iran, two in Oman and one in Uzbekistan) has been installed and surveyed twice, in September 1999 and October 2001. Each site has been surveyed for a minimum observation of 4 days. GPS data processing has been done using the GAMIT-GLOBK software package. The solution displays horizontal repeatabilities of about 1.2 mm in 1999 and 2001. The resulting velocities allow us to constrain the kinematics of the Iranian tectonic blocks. These velocities are given in ITRF2000 and also relative to Eurasia. This last kinematic model demonstrates that (1) the north–south shortening from Arabia to Eurasia is 2–2.5 cm/year, less than previously estimated, and (2) the transition from subduction (Makran) to collision (Zagros) is very sharp and governs the different styles of deformation observed in Iran. In the eastern part of Iran, most of the shortening is accommodated in the Gulf of Oman, while in the western part the shortening is more distributed from south to north. The large faults surrounding the Lut block accommodate most of the subduction–collision transition.
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