| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 3. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 4. |
- Blondel, A., et al.
(författare)
-
The SuperFGD Prototype charged particle beam tests
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 1748-0221. ; 15:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A novel scintillator detector, the SuperFGD, has been selected as the main neutrino target for an upgrade of the T2K experiment ND280 near detector. The detector design will allow nearly 47r coverage for neutrino interactions at the near detector and will provide lower energy thresholds, significantly reducing systematic errors for the experiment. The SuperFGD is made of optically-isolated scintillator cubes of size 10 x 10 x 10 mm(3), providing the required spatial and energy resolution to reduce systematic uncertainties for future T2K runs. The SuperFGD for T2K will have close to two million cubes in a 1920 x 560 x 1840 mm(3) volume. A prototype made of 24 x 8 x 48 cubes was tested at a charged particle beamline at the CERN PS facility. The SuperFGD Prototype was instrumented with readout electronics similar to the future implementation for T2K. Results on electronics and detector response are reported in this paper, along with a discussion of the 3D reconstruction capabilities of this type of detector. Several physics analyses with the prototype data are also discussed, including a study of stopping protons.
|
|
| 5. |
- Jerene, D, et al.
(författare)
-
Factors promoting and inhibiting sustained impact of a mental health task-shifting program for HIV providers in Ethiopia.
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Global Mental Health. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2054-4251. ; 4, s. 1-12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background.Task-shifting mental health into general medical care requires more than brief provider training. Generalists need long-term support to master new skills and changes to work context are required to sustain change in the face of competing priorities. We examined program and context factors promoting sustainability of a mental health task-shifting training for hospital-based HIV providers in Ethiopia.Methods.Convergent mixed-methods quasi-experimental study. Sustained impact was measured by trained/not-trained provider differences in case detection and management 16 months following the end of formal support. Factors related to sustainability were examined through interviews with trained providers.Results.Extent of sustained impact: Trained providers demonstrated modest but better agreement with standardized screeners (greater sensitivity with similar specificity). They were more likely to request that patients with mental health problems return to see them v. making a referral. Factors promoting sustainability (reported in semi-structured interviews): provider belief that the treatments they had learned were effective. New interactions with on-site mental health staff were a source of ongoing learning and encouragement. Factors diminishing sustainability: providers feelings of isolation when mental health partners left for work elsewhere, failure to incorporate mental health indicators into administrative data, to re-stock staff education materials, and to build formal mechanisms for generalist-mental health staff interaction.Conclusions.An intervention seen as feasible and effective, and promotion of relationships across professional lines, helped generalists sustain new skills. Failure to address key system context issues made use of the skills unsustainable as external supports ended.
|
|
| 6. |
- Khalil, Eltahir A G, et al.
(författare)
-
Safety and efficacy of single dose versus multiple doses of AmBisome for treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in eastern Africa : a randomised trial.
- 2014
-
Ingår i: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 8:1, s. e2613-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Anti-leishmanial drug regimens that include a single dose AmBisome could be suitable for eastern African patients with symptomatic visceral leishmaniasis (VL) but the appropriate single dose is unknown.METHODOLOGY: A multi-centre, open-label, non-inferiority, randomized controlled trial with an adaptive design, was conducted to compare the efficacy and safety of a single dose and multiple doses of AmBisome for the treatment of VL in eastern Africa. The primary efficacy endpoint was definitive cure (DC) at 6 months. Symptomatic patients with parasitologically-confirmed, non-severe VL, received a single dose of AmBisome 7.5 mg/kg body weight or multiple doses, 7 times 3 mg/kg on days 1-5, 14, and 21. If interim analyses, evaluated 30 days after the start of treatment following 40 or 80 patients, showed the single dose gave significantly poorer parasite clearance than multiple doses at the 5% significance level, the single dose was increased by 2·5 mg/kg. In a sub-set of patients, parasite clearance was measured by quantitative reverse transcriptase (qRT) PCR.PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The trial was terminated after the third interim analysis because of low efficacy of both regimens. Based on the intention-to-treat population, DC was 85% (95%CI 73-93%), 40% (95%CI 19-64%), and 58% (95%CI 41-73%) in patients treated with multiple doses (n = 63), and single doses of 7·5 (n = 21) or 10 mg/kg (n = 40), respectively. qRT-PCR suggested superior parasite clearance with multiple doses as early as day 3. Safety data accorded with the drug label.CONCLUSIONS: The tested AmBisome regimens would not be suitable for VL treatment across eastern Africa. An optimal single dose regimen was not identified.TRIALS REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.govNCT00832208.
|
|
| 7. |
- Gedefaw, A, et al.
(författare)
-
Magnitude of Neural Tube Defects and Associated Risk Factors at Three Teaching Hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- 2018
-
Ingår i: BioMed research international. - : Hindawi Limited. - 2314-6141 .- 2314-6133. ; 2018, s. 4829023-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is scarcity of data on prevalence of neural tube defects (NTDs) in lower-income countries. Local data are important to understand the real burden of the problem and explore risk factors to design and implement preventive approaches. This study aimed to determine prevalence and risk factors of NTDs. A hospital-based cross-sectional and unmatched case-control study was conducted at three teaching hospitals of Addis Ababa University. NTDs were defined as cases of anencephaly, spina bifida, and encephalocele based on ICD-10 criteria. The prevalence of NTDs was calculated per 10,000 births for both birth and total prevalence. During seven months, we observed 55 cases of NTDs out of 8677 births after 28 weeks of gestation—birth prevalence of 63.4 per 10,000 births (95% confidence interval (CI), 51–77). A total of 115 cases were medically terminated after 12 weeks of gestation. Fifty-six of these terminations (48.7%) were due to NTDs. Thus, total prevalence of NTDs after 12 weeks’ gestation is 126 per 10,000 births (95% CI, 100–150). Planned pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24–0.92), male sex (aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33–0.94), normal or underweight body mass index (aOR, 0.49; 95%, 0.29–0.95), and taking folic acid or multivitamins during first trimester (aOR, 0.47; 95%, 0.23–0.95) were protective of NTDs. However, annual cash family income less than $1,300 USD (aOR, 2.5; 95%, 1.2–5.5), $1,300–1,800 USD (aOR, 2.8; 95%, 1.3–5.8), and $1,801–2,700 USD (aOR, 2.6; 95%, 1.2–5.8) was found to be risk factors compared to income greater than $2,700 USD. The prevalence of NTDs was found to be high in this setting. Comprehensive preventive strategies focused on identified risk factors should be urgently established. More studies on prevention strategies, including folic acid supplementations, should be conducted in the setting.
|
|
| 8. |
- Kelemu, Tsehayneh, et al.
(författare)
-
Polymorphism in killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors and human leukocyte antigen-c and predisposition to preeclampsia in Ethiopian pregnant women population
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Reproductive Immunology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0165-0378. ; 141
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Preeclampsia (PE) is a human specific pregnancy-related syndrome of unknown etiology that affects 2–8 % of pregnancies. Polymorphism in maternal Killer Cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptors (KIRs) and the ligand fetal Human Leukocyte Antigen-C (HLA-C) may predispose pregnant mothers for PE due to defective trophoblast invasion into the maternal decidua. Our study aimed to investigate the association between maternal KIR and fetal HLA-C polymorphism and PE in Ethiopian pregnant women. Methods: We included a total of 288 (157 controls and 131 PE cases) in a case-controls study at Adama Regional Referral Hospital, Ethiopia. The KIR and HLA-C genotyping was done using traditional polymerase chain reaction on genomic DNA extracted form maternal venous and cord blood followed by 2% agarose gel electrophoresis. Results: The statistical associations between variables were evaluated using Pearson's Chi-square test. P < 0.05, with 95 % confidence interval was considered statistically significant. A significant association was observed between the KIR2DS1 and PE, with a higher frequency (60.5 %) of the gene in the control group. Similarly, a significant association was observed between KIR AA genotype and PE, with a higher frequency (38.2 %) of this genotype in the PE group. Ethiopians share the same risk genotype for PE as seen in previous African and European studies, namely homozygosity of a maternal KIR AA genotype. However, Ethiopians differ from other East African populations by sharing the same protective KIR2DS1 gene as Europeans.
|
|
