| 1. |
- Eklund, Lina, et al.
(författare)
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Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications Earth & Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 3:85
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural impacts, migration and conflict. Furthermore, our results suggest that the influential drought-migration-conflict narrative for Syria needs to be reexamined, with implications for wider discussions of how climate change might alter conflict risk.
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| 2. |
- Theisen, Ole Magnus, et al.
(författare)
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Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region : E/ESCWA/CL6.GCP/2021/TP.9
- 2021
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Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- The Arab States are affected by a wide range of environmental challenges exacerbated by current and projected impacts of climate change, including, among others, depletion of scarce natural resources such as water and arable land, increasing pollution levels, and the growing number and magnitude of extreme weather events. At the same time, the Arab region has been a hotspot for conflicts during the last decades. This highlights the need among policymakers and practitioners of conflict prevention and peacebuilding to better understand how climate change might contribute to current or future dynamics of conflict. This report provides a conceptual framework for analysts and policymakers in the region that shows how the loss of livelihood, economic contraction, resource competition, migration, poor governance, and other social processes (mechanisms) spurred by climate risk are more likely to increase conflict risk when occurring in certain contexts.
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