| 1. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(författare)
-
Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
-
Ingår i: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
|
|
| 2. |
- Bixby, H., et al.
(författare)
-
Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
|
|
| 3. |
- Ciarelli, Giancarlo, et al.
(författare)
-
Trends of inorganic and organic aerosols and precursor gases in Europe: Insights from the EURODELTA multi-model experiment over the 1990-2010 period
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 12:12, s. 4923-4954
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) modeling experiment, several chemical transport models (CTMs) were applied for the 1990-2010 period to investigate air quality changes in Europe as well as the capability of the models to reproduce observed long-term air quality trends. Five CTMs have provided modeled air quality data for 21 continuous years in Europe using emission scenarios prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (IIASA/GAINS) and corresponding year-by-year meteorology derived from ERA-Interim global reanalysis. For this study, long-term observations of particle sulfate (SO2 4-), total nitrate (TNO3), total ammonium (TNHx) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for multiple sites in Europe were used to evaluate the model results. The trend analysis was performed for the full 21 years (referred to as PT) but also for two 11-year subperiods: 1990-2000 (referred to as P1) and 2000-2010 (referred to as P2). The experiment revealed that the models were able to reproduce the faster decline in observed SO2 concentrations during the first decade, i.e., 1990-2000, with a 64%-76% mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all the models) versus an 82% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations. During the second decade (P2), the models estimated a mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations of about 34%-54%, which was also in line with that observed (47%). Comparisons of observed and modeled NO2 trends revealed a mean relative decrease of 25% and between 19% and 23% (range of all the models) during the P1 period, and 12% and between 22% and 26% (range of all the models) during the P2 period, respectively. Comparisons of observed and modeled trends in SO4 2- concentrations during the P1 period indicated that the models were able to reproduce the observed trends at most of the sites, with a 42%-54% mean relative reduction indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all models) versus a 57% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations and with good performance also during the P2 and PT periods, even though all the models overpredicted the number of statistically significant decreasing trends during the P2 period. Moreover, especially during the P1 period, both modeled and observational data indicated smaller reductions in SO42- concentrations compared with their gas-phase precursor (i.e., SO2), which could be mainly attributed to increased oxidant levels and pH-dependent cloud chemistry. An analysis of the trends in TNO3 concentrations indicated a 28%-39% and 29% mean relative reduction in TNO3 concentrations for the full period for model data (range of all the models) and observations, respectively. Further analysis of the trends in modeled HNO3 and particle nitrate (NO-3 ) concentrations revealed that the relative reduction in HNO3 was larger than that for NO-3 during the P1 period, which was mainly attributed to an increased availability of "free ammonia". By contrast, trends in modeled HNO3 and NO-3 concentrations were more comparable during the P2 period. Also, trends of TNHx concentrations were, in general, underpredicted by all models, with worse performance for the P1 period than for P2. Trends in modeled anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA and BSOA) concentrations together with the trends in available emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) were also investigated. A strong decrease in ASOA was indicated by all the models, following the reduction in anthropogenic non-methane VOC (NMVOC) precursors. Biogenic emission data provided by the modeling teams indicated a few areas with statistically significant increase in isoprene emissions and monoterpene emissions during the 1990-2010 period over Fennoscandia and eastern European regions (i.e., around 14 %-27 %), which was mainly attributed to the increase of surface temperature. However, the modeled BSOA concentrations did not linearly follow the increase in biogenic emissions. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation against positive matrix factorization (PMF) data, available during the second period (P2) at various European sites, revealed a systematic underestimation of the modeled SOA fractions of a factor of 3 to 11, on average, most likely because of missing SOA precursors and formation pathways, with reduced biases for the models that accounted for chemical aging of semi-volatile SOA components in the atmosphere.
|
|
| 4. |
- Mattsson, Marie, et al.
(författare)
-
Temporal variability in bioassays of the stomatal ammonia compensation point in relation to plant and soil nitrogen parameters in intensively managed grassland
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - Kaltenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Publications (on behalf of the European Geosciences Union). - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 6:2, s. 171-179
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The exchange of ammonia between crop canopies and the atmosphere depends on a range of plant parameters and climatic conditions. However, little is known about effects of management factors. We have here investigated the stomatal ammonia compensation point in response to cutting and fertilization of a grass sward dominated by Lolium perenne. Tall grass had a very low NH3 compensation point (around 1 nmol mol−1), reflecting the fact that leaf nitrogen (N) concentration was very low. During re-growth after cutting, leaf tissue concentrations of NO3−, NH4+, soluble N and total N increased along with apoplastic NH4+ concentrations. In contrast, apoplastic pH decreased resulting in largely unaltered NH3 compensation points. Nitrogen fertilization one week after cutting caused the apoplastic NH4+ concentration of the newly emerging leaves to increase dramatically. The NH3 compensation point peaked between 15 and 25 nmol mol−1 the day after the fertiliser was applied and thereafter decreased over the following 10 days until reaching the same level as before fertilisation. Ammonium concentrations in leaf apoplast, bulk tissue and litter were positively correlated (P=0.001) throughout the experimental period. Bulk tissue NH4+ concentrations, total plant N and soil NH4+ concentrations also showed a positive correlation. A very high potential for NH3 emission was shown by the plant litter.
|
|
| 5. |
- Otero, Noelia, et al.
(författare)
-
A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 18:16, s. 12269-12288
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The implementation of European emission abatement strategies has led to a significant reduction in the emissions of ozone precursors during the last decade. Ground-level ozone is also influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, which exhibit interannual variability and are expected to change in the future. The impacts of climate change on air quality are usually investigated through air-quality models that simulate interactions between emissions, meteorology and chemistry. Within a multi-model assessment, this study aims to better understand how air-quality models represent the relationship between meteorological variables and surface ozone concentrations over Europe. A multiple linear regression (MLR) approach is applied to observed and modelled time series across 10 European regions in springtime and summertime for the period of 2000-2010 for both models and observations. Overall, the air-quality models are in better agreement with observations in summertime than in springtime and particularly in certain regions, such as France, central Europe or eastern Europe, where local meteorological variables show a strong influence on surface ozone concentrations. Larger discrepancies are found for the southern regions, such as the Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin, especially in springtime. We show that the air-quality models do not properly reproduce the sensitivity of surface ozone to some of the main meteorological drivers, such as maximum temperature, relative humidity and surface solar radiation. Specifically, all air-quality models show more limitations in capturing the strength of the ozone-relative-humidity relationship detected in the observed time series in most of the regions, for both seasons. Here, we speculate that dry-deposition schemes in the air-quality models might play an essential role in capturing this relationship. We further quantify the relationship between ozone and maximum temperature (m(o3-T), climate penalty) in observations and air-quality models. In summertime, most of the air-quality models are able to reproduce the observed climate penalty reasonably well in certain regions such as France, central Europe and northern Italy. However, larger discrepancies are found in springtime, where air-quality models tend to overestimate the magnitude of the observed climate penalty.
|
|
| 6. |
- Sutton, M. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Dynamics of ammonia exchange with cut grassland : Strategy and implementation of the GRAMINAE Integrated Experiment
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus Publications (on behalf of the European Geosciences Union). - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 6:3, s. 309-331
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major international experiment on ammonia (NH3) biosphere-atmosphere exchange was conducted over intensively managed grassland at Braunschweig, Germany. The experimental strategy was developed to allow an integrated analysis of different features of NH3 exchange including: a) quantification of nearby emissions and advection effects, b) estimation of net NH3 fluxes with the canopy by a range of micrometeorological measurements, c) analysis of the sources and sinks of NH3 within the plant canopy, including soils and bioassay measurements, d) comparison of the effects of grassland management options on NH3 fluxes and e) assessment of the interactions of NH3 fluxes with aerosol exchange processes. Additional technical objectives included the inter-comparison of different estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes, as well as continuous-gradient and Relaxed Eddy Accumulation (REA) systems for NH3 fluxes. The prior analysis established the spatial and temporal design of the experiment, allowing significant synergy between these objectives. The measurements were made at 7 measurement locations, thereby quantifying horizontal and vertical profiles, and covered three phases: a) tall grass canopy prior to cutting (7 days), b) short grass after cutting (7 days) and c) re-growing sward following fertilization with ammonium nitrate (10 days). The sequential management treatments allowed comparison of sources-sinks, advection and aerosol interactions under a wide range of NH3 fluxes. This paper describes the experimental strategy and reports the grassland management history, soils, environmental conditions and air chemistry during the experiment, finally summarizing how the results are coordinated in the accompanying series of papers.
|
|
| 7. |
- Sutton, M. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 1471-2970 .- 0962-8436. ; 368:1621
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment-and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5 degrees C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.
|
|
| 8. |
- Theobald, M. R., et al.
(författare)
-
An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:1, s. 379-405
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe for the period 1990–2010 was estimated by six atmospheric chemistry transport models (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH and MINNI) within the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends model intercomparison. The simulated wet deposition and its trends for two 11-year periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) were evaluated using data from observations from the EMEP European monitoring network. For annual wet deposition of oxidised nitrogen (WNOx), model bias was within 30 % of the average of the observations for most models. There was a tendency for most models to underestimate annual wet deposition of reduced nitrogen (WNHx), although the model bias was within 40 % of the average of the observations. Model bias for WNHx was inversely correlated with model bias for atmospheric concentrations of NH3 + NH4+, suggesting that an underestimation of wet deposition partially contributed to an overestimation of atmospheric concentrations. Model bias was also within about 40 % of the average of the observations for the annual wet deposition of sulfur (WSOx) for most models. Decreasing trends in WNOx were observed at most sites for both 11-year periods, with larger trends, on average, for the second period. The models also estimated predominantly decreasing trends at the monitoring sites and all but one of the models estimated larger trends, on average, for the second period. Decreasing trends were also observed at most sites for WNHx, although larger trends, on average, were observed for the first period. This pattern was not reproduced by the models, which estimated smaller decreasing trends, on average, than those observed or even small increasing trends. The largest observed trends were for WSOx, with decreasing trends at more than 80 % of the sites. On average, the observed trends were larger for the first period. All models were able to reproduce this pattern, although some models underestimated the trends (by up to a factor of 4) and others overestimated them (by up to 40 %), on average. These biases in modelled trends were directly related to the tendency of the models to under- or overestimate annual wet deposition and were smaller for the relative trends (expressed as % yr−1 relative to the deposition at the start of the period). The fact that model biases were fairly constant throughout the time series makes it possible to improve the predictions of wet deposition for future scenarios by adjusting the model estimates using a bias correction calculated from past observations. An analysis of the contributions of various factors to the modelled trends suggests that the predominantly decreasing trends in wet deposition are mostly due to reductions in emissions of the precursors NOx, NH3 and SOx. However, changes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation) and other (non-linear) interactions partially offset the decreasing trends due to emission reductions during the first period but not the second. This suggests that the emission reduction measures had a relatively larger effect on wet deposition during the second period, at least for the sites with observations.
|
|
| 9. |
- Theobald, M. R., et al.
(författare)
-
Improving the spatial resolution of air-quality modelling at a European scale - Development and evaluation of the Air Quality Re-gridder Model (AQR v1.1)
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 9:12, s. 4475-4489
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © Author(s) 2016.Currently, atmospheric chemistry and transport models (ACTMs) used to assess impacts of air quality, applied at a European scale, lack the spatial resolution necessary to simulate fine-scale spatial variability. This spatial variability is especially important for assessing the impacts to human health or ecosystems of short-lived pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2/ or ammonia (NH3/. In order to simulate this spatial variability, the Air Quality Re-gridder (AQR) model has been developed to estimate the spatial distributions (at a spatial resolution of 1×1 km2/ of annual mean atmospheric concentrations within the grid squares of an ACTM (in this case with a spatial resolution of 50×50 km2/. This is done as a post-processing step by combining the coarse-resolution ACTM concentrations with high-spatialresolution emission data and simple parameterisations of atmospheric dispersion. The AQR model was tested for two European sub-domains (the Netherlands and central Scotland) and evaluated using NO2 and NH3 concentration data from monitoring networks within each domain. A statistical comparison of the performance of the two models shows that AQR gives a substantial improvement on the predictions of the ACTM, reducing both mean model error (from 61 to 41% for NO2 and from 42 to 27% for NH3) and increasing the spatial correlation (r) with the measured concentrations (from 0.0 to 0.39 for NO2 and from 0.74 to 0.84 for NH3/. This improvement was greatest for monitoring locations close to pollutant sources. Although the model ideally requires high-spatial-resolution emission data, which are not available for the whole of Europe, the use of a Europe-wide emission dataset with a lower spatial resolution also gave an improvement on the ACTM predictions for the two test domains. The AQR model provides an easy-to-use and robust method to estimate sub-grid variability that can potentially be extended to different timescales and pollutants.
|
|
