| 1. |
- Ayllón, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Keeping modelling notebooks with TRACE : Good for you and good for environmental research and management support
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The acceptance and usefulness of simulation models are often limited by the efficiency, transparency, reproducibility, and reliability of the modelling process. We address these issues by suggesting that modellers (1) “trace” the iterative modelling process by keeping a modelling notebook corresponding to the laboratory notebooks used by empirical researchers, (2) use a standardized notebook structure and terminology based on the existing TRACE documentation framework, and (3) use their notebooks to compile TRACE documents that supplement publications and reports. These practices have benefits for model developers, users, and stakeholders: improved and efficient model design, analysis, testing, and application; increased model acceptance and reuse; and replicability and reproducibility of the model and the simulation experiments. Using TRACE terminology and structure in modelling notebooks facilitates production of TRACE documents. We explain the rationale of TRACE, provide example TRACE documents, and suggest strategies for keeping “TRACE Modelling Notebooks.”
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| 2. |
- Evans, Luke C, et al.
(författare)
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Data on the movement behaviour of four species of grassland butterfly
- 2019
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Ingår i: Data in Brief. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-3409. ; 27, s. 104611-104611
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This Data in Brief article describes data on the movement behaviour of four species of grassland butterflies collected over three years and at four sites in southern England. The datasets consist of the movement tracks of Maniola jurtina, Aricia agestis, Pyronia tithonus, and Melanargia galathea, recorded using standard methods and presented as steps distances and turning angles. Sites consisted of nectar-rich field margins, meadows, and mown short turf grasslands with minimal flowers. In total, 783 unique movement tracks were collected. The data were used for analysing the movement behaviour of the species and for parameterising individual-based movement models.
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| 3. |
- Evans, Luke C, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating the influence of weather into mechanistic models of butterfly movement
- 2019
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Ingår i: Movement Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2051-3933. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Understanding the factors influencing movement is essential to forecasting species persistence in a changing environment. Movement is often studied using mechanistic models, extrapolating short-term observations of individuals to longer-term predictions, but the role of weather variables such as air temperature and solar radiation, key determinants of ectotherm activity, are generally neglected. We aim to show how the effects of weather can be incorporated into individual-based models of butterfly movement thus allowing analysis of their effects.Methods: We constructed a mechanistic movement model and calibrated it with high precision movement data on a widely studied species of butterfly, the meadow brown (Maniola jurtina), collected over a 21-week period at four sites in southern England. Day time temperatures during the study ranged from 14.5 to 31.5 °C and solar radiation from heavy cloud to bright sunshine. The effects of weather are integrated into the individual-based model through weather-dependent scaling of parametric distributions representing key behaviours: the durations of flight and periods of inactivity.Results: Flight speed was unaffected by weather, time between successive flights increased as solar radiation decreased, and flight duration showed a unimodal response to air temperature that peaked between approximately 23 °C and 26 °C. After validation, the model demonstrated that weather alone can produce a more than two-fold difference in predicted weekly displacement.Conclusions: Individual Based models provide a useful framework for integrating the effect of weather into movement models. By including weather effects we are able to explain a two-fold difference in movement rate of M. jurtina consistent with inter-annual variation in dispersal measured in population studies. Climate change for the studied populations is expected to decrease activity and dispersal rates since these butterflies already operate close to their thermal optimum.
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| 4. |
- Evans, Luke C., et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying the effectiveness of agri-environment schemes for a grassland butterfly using individual-based models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The intensification of agricultural practices throughout the twentieth century has had large detrimental effects on biodiversity and these are likely to increase as the human population rises, with consequent pressure on land. To offset these negative impacts, agri-environment schemes have been widely implemented, offering financial incentives for land-owners to create or maintain favourable habitats that enhance or maintain biodiversity. While some evidence is available on the resulting species richness and abundance for groups such as natural predators, pollinating insects including butterflies and moths, this is costly to obtain and it is difficult to predict the effects of specific habitat designs. To alleviate this problem we here develop an individual-based model (IBM), modelling the detailed movement behaviour, foraging, and energy budget of a grassland butterfly Maniola jurtina Linn. in patches of varying dimensions and quality. The IBM is successfully validated against data on M. jurtina densities, movement behaviour, resource use, fecundity and lifespan in habitats of varying quality. We use the IBM to quantify the benefits for life-history outcomes of M. jurtina of increasing the quantity and the quality of field margins within agricultural landscapes. We find that increasing the quantity of field margin habitat from 1 to 3 ha per 100 ha, as recommended in agri-environment schemes, increases the average number of eggs laid across a two-week period by 60% and adds an extra day to the average lifespan. Similar effects are reported for variation in the quality of field margins. We discuss the implications of the result for modelling butterfly responses to management scenarios.
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| 5. |
- Evans, Luke C., et al.
(författare)
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The importance of including habitat-specific behaviour in models of butterfly movement
- 2020
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Ingår i: Oecologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0029-8549 .- 1432-1939.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dispersal is a key process affecting population persistence and major factors affecting dispersal rates are the amounts, connectedness and properties of habitats in landscapes. We present new data on the butterfly Maniola jurtina in flower-rich and flower-poor habitats that demonstrates how movement and behaviour differ between sexes and habitat types, and how this effects consequent dispersal rates. Females had higher flight speeds than males, but their total time in flight was four times less. The effect of habitat type was strong for both sexes, flight speeds were ~ 2.5 × and ~ 1.7 × faster on resource-poor habitats for males and females, respectively, and flights were approximately 50% longer. With few exceptions females oviposited in the mown grass habitat, likely because growing grass offers better food for emerging caterpillars, but they foraged in the resource-rich habitat. It seems that females faced a trade-off between ovipositing without foraging in the mown grass or foraging without ovipositing where flowers were abundant. We show that taking account of habitat-dependent differences in activity, here categorised as flight or non-flight, is crucial to obtaining good fits of an individual-based model to observed movement. An important implication of this finding is that incorporating habitat-specific activity budgets is likely necessary for predicting longer-term dispersal in heterogeneous habitats, as habitat-specific behaviour substantially influences the mean (> 30% difference) and kurtosis (1.4 × difference) of dispersal kernels. The presented IBMs provide a simple method to explicitly incorporate known activity and movement rates when predicting dispersal in changing and heterogeneous landscapes.
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| 6. |
- Hunka, Agnieszka D., 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU : What factors and groups influence policy changes?
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Risk Research. - Abingdon : Routledge. - 1366-9877 .- 1466-4461. ; 18:9, s. 1165-1183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the last couple of years, European environmental risk assessment (ERA) regulations have undergone significant changes. The new 1107/2009 directive which came into effect in 2011 has triggered an on-going debate on defining specific protection goals for ERA. During this period, we conducted a study on policy change among the most influential ERA stakeholders from Europe. We interviewed 43, purposively sampled, participants from the European safety authorities, plant protection product industry and academia. Transcribed interviews underwent thematic analysis conducted separately by two coders. As we followed the advocacy coalition framework, our findings focus on stakeholders processes, interrelations and values behind the ERA policy change. The main challenges emerging from our analysis turned out to be the slow uptake of scientific developments into ERA and very broadly defined protection goals. The use of safety factors and cut-off criteria left risk assessors with many uncertainties. With ERA in its current form it turned out to be impossible to determine whether the current scheme is over- or under-protective. Still, the study shows that the problem of over- or under-protectiveness lies deep in the perception of stakeholders and depends greatly on their priorities. Academics strive for better ecological relevance as a priority. They have concerns that ERA is oversimplified. Regulators worry that ERA relies too much on risk mitigation and is possibly not protective enough, but at the same time, the majority believes that the assessment is well established and straightforward to follow. Industry representatives would like to see ERA based more on probabilistic risk assessment. Recent changes, according to risk assessment and management practitioners have led to an inevitable increase in complexity, which is not perceived as a positive thing, and does not necessarily translate into better risk assessment. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.
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| 7. |
- Hunka, Agnieszka D., 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Risk communication discourse among ecological risk assessment professionals and its implications for communication with nonexperts
- 2013
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Ingår i: Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management. - Hoboken : John Wiley & Sons. - 1551-3777 .- 1551-3793. ; 9:4, s. 616-622
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk communication, especially to the general public and end users of plant protection products, is an important challenge. Currently, much of the risk communication the general public receives is via the popular press, and risk managers face the challenge of presenting their decisions and their scientific basis to the general public in an understandable way. Therefore, we decided to explore the obstacles in risk communication, as done by expert risk assessors and managers. Using the discourse analysis framework and readability tests, we studied perspectives of 3 stakeholder groups-regulators, industry representatives, and academics across Europe. We conducted 30 confidential interviews (10 participants in each group), with part of the interview guide focused on communication of pesticide risk to the general public and the ideas experts in the field of risk assessment and management hold of the public perception of pesticides. We used the key informant approach in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in ecological risk assessment of pesticides and then sampled by means of a snowball sampling technique. In the analysis, first we identified main motifs (themes) in each group, and then we moved to studying length of the sentences and grammar and to uncovering discoursespresent in the text data. We also used the Flesch Reading Ease test to determine the comprehension difficulty of transcribed interviews. The test is commonly used as a standard for estimating the readability of technical documents. Our results highlight 3 main obstacles standing in the way of effective communication with wider audiences. First of all, ecological risk assessment as a highly technical procedure uses the specific language of ecological risk assessment, which is also highly specialized and might be difficult to comprehend by nonexperts. Second, the idea of existing "expert-lay discrepancy," a phenomenon described in risk perception studies is visibly present in the experts' opinions. Finally, the communicationflow among stakeholders was perceived as flawed, e.g., our participants did not consider themselves fully included in the communication process, despite taking part in many networks. Interestingly, both studies on the role of trust in risk perception, and research on links between daily choices and perceived risk, show that the public is more likely to rely on experts they can trust, than the experts in our study were inclined to think. © 2013 SETAC
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| 8. |
- Hunka, Agnieszka D., 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Stakeholders' Perspective on Ecological Modeling in Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides : Challenges and Opportunities
- 2013
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Ingår i: Risk Analysis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0272-4332 .- 1539-6924. ; 33:1, s. 68-79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The article closely examines the role of mechanistic effect models (e.g., population models) in the European environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides. We studied perspectives of three stakeholder groups on population modeling in ERA of pesticides. Forty-three in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders from regulatory authorities, industry, and academia all over Europe. The key informant approach was employed in recruiting our participants. They were first identified as key stakeholders in the field and then sampled by means of a purposive sampling, where each stakeholder identified as important by others was interviewed and asked to suggest another potential participant for our study. Our results show that participants, although having different institutional backgrounds often presented similar perspectives and concerns about modeling. Analysis of repeating ideas and keywords revealed that all stakeholders had very high and often contradicting expectations from models. Still, all three groups expected effect models to become integrated in future ERA of pesticides. Main hopes associated with effect models were to reduce the amount of expensive and complex testing and field monitoring, both at the product development stage, and as an aid to develop mitigation measures. Our analysis suggests that, although the needs of stakeholders often overlapped, subtle differences and lack of trust hinder the process of introducing mechanistic effect models into ERA. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
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