| 1. |
- Crone, Elizabeth E., et al.
(författare)
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Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 27:5, s. 968-978
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas Resumen La incertidumbre asociada con el pronostico ecologico ha sido reconocida durante un largo tiempo pero rara vez se cuantifica su seguridad. Evaluamos que tan bien la informacion de 82 poblaciones de 20 especies de plantas a lo largo de 3 continentes explica y predice la dinamica de poblacion de las plantas. Realizamos parametros con modelos matriciales con base en estadios con datos demograficos a partir de plantas marcadas individualmente y determinamos que tan bien estos modelos pronostican el tamano de las poblaciones al menos 5 anos en el futuro. Los modelos demograficos simples pronosticaron pobremente las dinamicas de poblacion; solamente el 40% de las poblaciones observadas cayo dentro de los limites de confianza de 85% de nuestros pronosticos. Estos modelos sin embargo explicaron la dinamica de poblacion a lo largo de los anos en los que se colectaron datos; los cambios observados en el tamano de la poblacion durante el periodo de colecta de datos estuvieron positivamente correlacionados con la tasa de crecimiento de la poblacion. Asi, estos modelos son por lo menos una manera segura de cuantificar el estado de la poblacion. Los pronosticos debiles no estuvieron asociados con el numero de plantas individuales o con los anos de datos. Probamos si las tasas vitales dependian de la densidad y encontramos que existe dependencia hacia la densidad tanto positiva como negativa, sin embargo la dependencia de densidad no se asocio con el error de pronostico. El error de pronostico estuvo significativamente asociado con diferencias ambientales entre la recoleccion de datos y los periodos de pronostico. Para predecir el destino de las poblaciones se necesitan modelos mas detallados, como aquellos que proyectan los cambios probables en el ambiente y como estos cambios afectaran a la dinamica de las poblaciones. Tales modelos tan detallados no siempre son factibles. Por ello puede ser mejor tomar decisiones aversas a riesgos que esperar pronosticos precisos de los modelos.
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| 2. |
- Crone, Elizabeth E., et al.
(författare)
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How do plant ecologists use matrix population models?
- 2011
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 14:1, s. 1-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- P>Matrix projection models are among the most widely used tools in plant ecology. However, the way in which plant ecologists use and interpret these models differs from the way in which they are presented in the broader academic literature. In contrast to calls from earlier reviews, most studies of plant populations are based on < 5 matrices and present simple metrics such as deterministic population growth rates. However, plant ecologists also cautioned against literal interpretation of model predictions. Although academic studies have emphasized testing quantitative model predictions, such forecasts are not the way in which plant ecologists find matrix models to be most useful. Improving forecasting ability would necessitate increased model complexity and longer studies. Therefore, in addition to longer term studies with better links to environmental drivers, priorities for research include critically evaluating relative/comparative uses of matrix models and asking how we can use many short-term studies to understand long-term population dynamics.
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| 3. |
- Ibanez, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 30:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.
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| 4. |
- Rice, Jake, et al.
(författare)
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Chapter 2: Conceptualizing the sustainable use of wild species.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Thematic Assessment Report on the Sustainable Use of Wild Species of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. - Bonn : IPBES Secretariat.
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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