| 1. |
- Bogdanov, Dmitrii, et al.
(författare)
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Transition towards 100% renewable power and heat supply for energy intensive economies and severe continental climate conditions: Case for Kazakhstan
- 2019
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply is a challenging aim for many regions in the world. Even in regions with excellent availability of wind and solar resources, such factors as limited availability of flexible renewable energy resources, low flexibility of demand, and high seasonality of energy supply and demand can impede the transition. All these factors can be found for the case of Kazakhstan, a mostly steppe country with harsh continental climate conditions and an energy intensive economy dominated by fossil fuels. Results of the simulation using the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool show that even under these conditions, the power and heat supply system of Kazakhstan can transition towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. A renewable-based electricity only system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, with levelised cost of electricity of 54 €/MWh in 2050. The heat system transition requires installation of substantial storage capacities to compensate for seasonal heat demand variations. Electrical heating will become the main source of heat for both district and individual heating sectors with heat cost of about 45 €/MWh and electricity cost of around 56 €/MWh for integrated sectors in 2050. According to these results, transition towards a 100% renewable power and heat supply system is technically feasible and economically viable even in countries with harsh climatic conditions.
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| 2. |
- Karlsson, Ida, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Mistra Carbon Exit Technical roadmap - Buildings and transport infrastructure
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report explores different possible trajectories of technological developments in the supply chains of buildings and transportation infrastructure. By linking short-term and long-term goals with specific technology options, the Mistra Carbon Exit roadmaps describe key decision points and potential synergies, competing goals and lock-in effects. The analysis combines quantitative analytical methods, i.e. scenarios and stylized models, with participatory processes involving relevant stakeholders in the roadmap assessment process. The roadmaps outline material and energy flows along with costs associated with different technical and strategical choices and explore interlinkages and interactions across sectors. The results show how strategic choices with respect to process technologies, energy carriers and the availability of biofuels, carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) and carbon neutral electricity may have very different implications on energy use and CO2 emissions over time.
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| 3. |
- Karlsson, Ida, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Mistra Carbon Exit Technical roadmap - Cement industry
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report explores different possible trajectories of technological developments in the primary production of cement. By linking short-term and long-term goals with specific technology options, the Mistra Carbon Exit roadmaps describe key decision points and potential synergies, competing goals and lock-in effects. The analysis combines quantitative analytical methods, i.e. scenarios and stylized models, with participatory processes involving relevant stakeholders in the roadmap assessment process. The roadmaps outline material and energy flows along with costs associated with different technical and strategical choices and explore interlinkages and interactions across sectors. The results show how strategic choices with respect to process technologies, energy carriers and the availability of biofuels, carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) and carbon neutral electricity may have very different implications on energy use and CO2 emissions over time.
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| 4. |
- Karlsson, Ida, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Roadmap for climate transition of the building and construction industry – a supply chain analysis including primary production of steel and cement
- 2020
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Ingår i: Eceee Industrial Summer Study Proceedings. - 2001-7987 .- 2001-7979. ; 2020-September, s. 67-77
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sweden has, in line with the Paris agreement, committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2045. Emissions arising from manufacturing, transporting and processing of construction materials to buildings and infrastructure account for approximately one fifth of Sweden’s annual CO2 emissions. This work provides a roadmap with an analysis of different pathways of technological developments in the supply chains of the buildings and construction industry, including primary production of steel and cement. By matching short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions, these pathways make it possible to identify key decision points and potential synergies, competing goals and lock-in effects. The analysis combines quantitative analysis methods, including scenarios and stylized models, with participatory processes involving relevant stakeholders in the assessment process. The roadmap outline material and energy flows associated with different technical and strategical choices and explores interlink-ages and interactions across sectors. The results show that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions associated with construction of buildings and transport infrastructure by 50 % to 2030 and reach close to zero emissions by 2045, while indicating that strategic choices with respect to process technologies, energy carriers and the availability of biofuels, CCS and zero CO2 electricity may have different implications on energy use and CO2 emissions over time. The results also illustrate the importance of intensifying efforts to identify and manage both soft (organisation, knowledge sharing, competence) and hard (technology and costs) barriers and the importance of both acting now by implementing available measures (e.g. material efficiency and material/fuel substitution measures) and actively planning for long-term measures (low-CO2 steel or cement). Unlocking the full potential of the range of emission abatement measures will require not only technological innovation but also innovations in the policy arena and efforts to develop new ways of cooperating, coordinating and sharing information between actors.
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| 5. |
- Karlsson, Ida, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Roadmap for Decarbonization of the Building and Construction Industry - A Supply Chain Analysis Including Primary Production of Steel and Cement
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073 .- 1996-1073. ; 13:16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sweden has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero by 2045. Around 20% of Sweden's annual CO(2)emissions arise from manufacturing, transporting, and processing of construction materials for construction and refurbishment of buildings and infrastructure. In this study, material and energy flows for building and transport infrastructure construction is outlined, together with a roadmap detailing how the flows change depending on different technical and strategical choices. By matching short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions, these pathways make it possible to identify key decision points and potential synergies, competing goals, and lock-in effects. The results show that it is possible to reduce CO(2)emissions associated with construction of buildings and transport infrastructure by 50% to 2030 applying already available measures, and reach close to zero emissions by 2045, while indicating that strategic choices with respect to process technologies and energy carriers may have different implications on energy use and CO(2)emissions over time. The results also illustrate the importance of intensifying efforts to identify and manage both soft and hard barriers and the importance of simultaneously acting now by implementing available measures (e.g., material efficiency and material/fuel substitution measures), while actively planning for long-term measures (low-CO(2)steel or cement).
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| 6. |
- Lehtveer, Mariliis, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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Actuating the European Energy System Transition: Indicators for Translating Energy Systems Modelling Results into Policy-Making
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Energy Research. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-598X. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we define indicators, with a focus on the electricity sector, that translate the results of energy systems modelling to quantitative entities that can facilitate assessments of the transitions required to meet stringent climate targets. Such indicators, which are often overlooked in model scenario presentations, can be applied to make the modelling results more accessible and are useful for managing the transition on the policy level, as well as for internal evaluations of modelling results. We propose a set of 13 indicators related to: 1) the resource and material usages in modelled energy system designs; 2) the rates of transition from current to future energy systems; and 3) the energy security in energy system modelling results. To illustrate its value, the proposed set of indicators is applied to energy system scenarios derived from an electricity system investment model for Northern Europe. We show that the proposed indicators are useful for facilitating discussions, raising new questions, and relating the modelling results to Sustainable Development Goals and thus facilitate better policy processes. The indicators presented here should not be seen as a complete set, but rather as examples. Therefore, this paper represents a starting point and a call to other modellers to expand and refine the list of indicators.
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| 7. |
- Toktarova, Alla, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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Design of clean steel production with hydrogen: Impact of electricity system composition
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073 .- 1996-1073. ; 14:24
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Europe, electrification is considered a key option to obtain a cleaner production of steel at the same time as the electricity system production portfolio is expected to consist of an increasing share of varying renewable electricity (VRE) generation, mainly in the form of solar PV and wind power. We investigate cost-efficient designs of hydrogen-based steelmaking in electricity systems dominated by VRE. We develop and apply a linear cost-minimization model with an hourly time resolution, which determines cost-optimal operation and sizing of the units in hydrogen-based steelmaking including an electrolyser, direct reduction shaft, electric arc furnace, as well as storage for hydrogen and hot-briquetted iron pellets. We show that the electricity price following steelmaking leads to savings in running costs but to increased capital cost due to investments in the overcapacity of steel production units and storage units for hydrogen and hot-briquetted iron pellets. For two VRE-dominated regions, we show that the electricity price following steel production reduces the total steel production cost by 23% and 17%, respectively, as compared to continuous steel production at a constant level. We also show that the cost-optimal design of the steelmaking process is dependent upon the electricity system mix.
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| 8. |
- Toktarova, Alla, 1992
(författare)
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Electrification of the basic materials industry – Implications for the electricity system
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The European energy-intensive basic materials industry must achieve deep reductions in CO2 emissions to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. The rapid decline in the cost of renewable electricity makes expanded electrification an attractive option for eliminating the dependence of the industry on fossil fuels. This work applies techno-economic optimisation modelling to investigate how electrification of the basic material intensive industry in EU can interact with the electricity system. In particular, this work examines the ability of basic material industry to take advantage of flexibility options in the production processes to avoid high-cost electricity and facilitate the integration of wind and solar power. The thesis considers flexibility options which can meet an uneven distribution of electricity in time and space, including options to invest in overcapacity in electrolysers for hydrogen production and storage (flexibility in time) and the ability to export commodities (flexibility in location) for the industries included (ammonia, cement, plastics, and steel). For the electrified process of plastics production, flexibility in terms of CO2 utilisation is used to describe the ability of industrial units to vary their CO2 utilisation modes, i.e., through carbon capture and utilisation and carbon capture and storage. The modelling results show that an energy-intensive basic materials industry that has flexibility in relation to time, location, and CO2 utilisation provides lower production costs compared to a non-flexible industry. This is despite the lower capacity utilisation rate (60%) of the electrolysers used for hydrogen production, i.e., it is cost-efficient with investment in over-capacity in electrolysers. The modelling results also show that availability of low-cost electricity generation is the main determining parameter for geographical location of new industries with high operational flexibility and high hydrogen intensity (in this work presented by ammonia industry). With present-day locations of the industry, a hydrogen pipelines network allows for moving the electrolyser capacity from industry-intensive regions to regions with access to low-cost electricity which reduces hydrogen production costs by 3%. With the modelled optimal geographical location of new industries, hydrogen production is in the same region as the hydrogen-consuming units and, thus, a hydrogen pipeline has no significant impact on the hydrogen production cost. It was found that the electrification of the energy-intensive basic materials industry in the EU increases the electricity demand by around 44% (by 1,200 TWh). The future EU electricity demand with the present-day locations of the industrial plants is primarily met by solar, wind and nuclear power. If changes in annual production volumes and relocation of industries are allowed, more commodities are produced in regions that have both existing industries and access to low-cost electricity, thereby increasing the levels of electricity generation from wind and solar power. All the modelled scenarios require a substantial and rapid increases in renewable electricity capacity.
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| 9. |
- Toktarova, Alla, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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Interaction between electrified steel production and the north European electricity system
- 2022
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 310
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigates the interactions between a steel industry that applies hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR) and the electricity system of northern Europe. We apply a techno-economic optimization model with the aim of achieving net-zero emissions from the electricity and steel sectors in Year 2050. The model minimizes the investment and running costs of electricity and steel production units, while meeting the demands for electricity and steel. The modeling is carried out for a number of scenarios, which differ in the following parameters: (i) cost of using new sites for steel production; (ii) transport costs; (iii) commodities export; (iv) flexibility in operation of a direct reduction (DR) shaft furnace; and (v) location of steel demand. The results reveal that a cost-efficient spatial allocation of the electrified steel production capacity is impacted by the availability of low-cost electricity and can differ from the present - day allocation of steel plants. The modeling results show that the additional electricity demand from an electrified steel industry is met mainly by increased investments in wind and solar power while natural gas - based production of electricity is reduced. Furthermore, it is found to be cost-efficient to invest in overcapacity for steel production units (electrolyzers, DR shaft furnaces and electric arc furnaces) and to invest in storage systems for hydrogen and hot briquetted iron, so that steel production can follow the variations inherent to wind and solar power.
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| 10. |
- Toktarova, Alla, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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Pathways for Low-Carbon Transition of the Steel Industry-A Swedish Case Study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073 .- 1996-1073. ; 13:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The concept of techno-economic pathways is used to investigate the potential implementation of CO(2)abatement measures over time towards zero-emission steelmaking in Sweden. The following mitigation measures are investigated and combined in three pathways: top gas recycling blast furnace (TGRBF); carbon capture and storage (CCS); substitution of pulverized coal injection (PCI) with biomass; hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H-DR); and electric arc furnace (EAF), where fossil fuels are replaced with biomass. The results show that CCS in combination with biomass substitution in the blast furnace and a replacement primary steel production plant with EAF with biomass (Pathway 1) yield CO(2)emission reductions of 83% in 2045 compared to CO(2)emissions with current steel process configurations. Electrification of the primary steel production in terms of H-DR/EAF process (Pathway 2), could result in almost fossil-free steel production, and Sweden could achieve a 10% reduction in total CO(2)emissions. Finally, (Pathway 3) we show that increased production of hot briquetted iron pellets (HBI), could lead to decarbonization of the steel industry outside Sweden, assuming that the exported HBI will be converted via EAF and the receiving country has a decarbonized power sector.
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