| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
-
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
|
|
| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 4. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(författare)
-
Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2019
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
|
|
| 5. |
- Danne, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
-
A cross-sectional international survey of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion in 377 children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus from 10 countries
- 2005
-
Ingår i: Pediatric Diabetes. - 1399-543X .- 1399-5448. ; 6:4, s. 193-198
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To document current practices using continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) by downloading electronically the 90-d pump data held within the pump memory and relating that to clinical data from children and adolescents in different pediatric diabetes centers from Europe and Israel. Methods: Data of patients (1-18 yr) treated with CSII in 23 centers from nine European countries and Israel were recorded with the ENCAPTURE software (PEC International, Frankfurt, Germany). The number of patients who participated was 377 (48% female, mean diabetes duration ± SD: 6.8 ± 3.7 yr, age: 12.9 ± 3.8 yr, preschool n = 33, prepubertal n = 95, adolescent n = 249, CSII duration: 1.6 ± 1.2 yr, local HbA1c: 8.1 ± 1.2%). Results: The total insulin dose was lower than previously reported for injection therapy (0.79 ± 0.20 U/kg/d). Covariance coefficient of daily total insulin was high in all age groups (adolescents 19 ± 9%, prepubertal 18 ± 8 and preschool 17 ± 8). The distribution of basal insulin infusion rates over 24 hr (48 ± 12% of total dose) varied significantly between centers and age groups. The number of boluses per day (7 ± 3) was not significantly different between the age groups (average daily bolus amount: 0.42 ± 0.16 U /kg). The rate of severe hypoglycemia (coma/convulsions) was 12.4 episodes per 100 patient-years and the number of diabetes-related hospital days was 124 per 100 patient-years. Discussion: Pediatric CSII patients show a high variability in their insulin therapy. This relates both to age-dependent differences in the distribution of basal insulin as to the age-independent day-to-day variation in prandial insulin. © Blackwell Munksgaard, 2005.
|
|
| 6. |
- Roten, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimation of non-linear site response in a deep Alpine valley
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Geophysical Journal International. - 0956-540X .- 1365-246X. ; 178:3, s. 1597-1613
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We simulate non-linear behaviour of soils during strong ground motion in the Rhône valley in southern Switzerland. Previous studies of the site response using weak ground motion, ambient noise and linear 3-D FD simulations suggest that the 2-D structure of the basin will lead to amplification factors of up to 12 in the frequency band between 0.5 and 10 Hz. To estimate the importance of non-linear soil behaviour during strong ground motion in the Rhône valley we simulate the response of a superficial soft layer with a fully non-linear 1-D finite difference code. The non-linear wave propagator is based on an effective stress constitutive soil model capable of predicting pore pressure evolution due to shear. We determine the required dilatancy parameters from laboratory analysis of soil samples using cyclic triaxial tests. In order to include the effect of the strong 2-D structure in our non-linear analysis synthetic seismograms are convolved with the transfer function of the basin and then propagated through a 1-D non-linear layer. We find that reduced amplification due to soil non-linearity can be expected at rock accelerations above 0.5 ms-2, and that de-amplification occurs at ground motion levels of approximately 2 ms-2. Nevertheless, the spectral accelerations simulated forthe valley centre are still exceeding the design spectra at about 0.5 Hz for magnitudes above 6.0, which reflects the strong amplification of ground motion by the deep 2-D resonance of the basin. For frequencies above 1 Hz the design spectra are generally in agreement with the strongest simulated accelerations. We evaluate the occurrence of soil failure using the 5 per cent strain criterion as a function of hypocentral distance and magnitude. Results confirm observations of liquefaction reported after the 1855 Mw 6.4 earthquake of Visp, and they suggest that soil liquefaction may occur at distances beyond those predicted by empirical relations in the valley. Near the basin edge, however, the simulated liquefaction occurrence agrees with the empirical relations. These results suggest that the response of the whole structure needs to be simulated in order to estimate the non-linear seismic response of complex basins like the Rhône valley
|
|
