| 1. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Arridge, Christopher S., et al.
(författare)
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Uranus Pathfinder : exploring the origins and evolution of Ice Giant planets
- 2012
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Ingår i: Experimental astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0922-6435 .- 1572-9508. ; 33:2-3, s. 753-791
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The "Ice Giants" Uranus and Neptune are a different class of planet compared to Jupiter and Saturn. Studying these objects is important for furthering our understanding of the formation and evolution of the planets, and unravelling the fundamental physical and chemical processes in the Solar System. The importance of filling these gaps in our knowledge of the Solar System is particularly acute when trying to apply our understanding to the numerous planetary systems that have been discovered around other stars. The Uranus Pathfinder (UP) mission thus represents the quintessential aspects of the objectives of the European planetary community as expressed in ESA's Cosmic Vision 2015-2025. UP was proposed to the European Space Agency's M3 call for medium-class missions in 2010 and proposed to be the first orbiter of an Ice Giant planet. As the most accessible Ice Giant within the M-class mission envelope Uranus was identified as the mission target. Although not selected for this call the UP mission concept provides a baseline framework for the exploration of Uranus with existing low-cost platforms and underlines the need to develop power sources suitable for the outer Solar System. The UP science case is based around exploring the origins, evolution, and processes at work in Ice Giant planetary systems. Three broad themes were identified: (1) Uranus as an Ice Giant, (2) An Ice Giant planetary system, and (3) An asymmetric magnetosphere. Due to the long interplanetary transfer from Earth to Uranus a significant cruise-phase science theme was also developed. The UP mission concept calls for the use of a Mars Express/Rosetta-type platform to launch on a Soyuz-Fregat in 2021 and entering into an eccentric polar orbit around Uranus in the 2036-2037 timeframe. The science payload has a strong heritage in Europe and beyond and requires no significant technology developments.
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| 4. |
- Carneiro, Ana P. B., et al.
(författare)
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A framework for mapping the distribution of seabirds by integrating tracking, demography and phenology
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 57:3, s. 514-525
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The identification of geographic areas where the densities of animals are highest across their annual cycles is a crucial step in conservation planning. In marine environments, however, it can be particularly difficult to map the distribution of species, and the methods used are usually biased towards adults, neglecting the distribution of other life-history stages even though they can represent a substantial proportion of the total population. Here we develop a methodological framework for estimating population-level density distributions of seabirds, integrating tracking data across the main life-history stages (adult breeders and non-breeders, juveniles and immatures). We incorporate demographic information (adult and juvenile/immature survival, breeding frequency and success, age at first breeding) and phenological data (average timing of breeding and migration) to weight distribution maps according to the proportion of the population represented by each life-history stage. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by applying it to 22 species of albatrosses and petrels that are of conservation concern due to interactions with fisheries. Because juveniles, immatures and non-breeding adults account for 47%-81% of all individuals of the populations analysed, ignoring the distributions of birds in these stages leads to biased estimates of overlap with threats, and may misdirect management and conservation efforts. Population-level distribution maps using only adult distributions underestimated exposure to longline fishing effort by 18%-42%, compared with overlap scores based on data from all life-history stages. Synthesis and applications. Our framework synthesizes and improves on previous approaches to estimate seabird densities at sea, is applicable for data-poor situations, and provides a standard and repeatable method that can be easily updated as new tracking and demographic data become available. We provide scripts in the R language and a Shiny app to facilitate future applications of our approach. We recommend that where sufficient tracking data are available, this framework be used to assess overlap of seabirds with at-sea threats such as overharvesting, fisheries bycatch, shipping, offshore industry and pollutants. Based on such an analysis, conservation interventions could be directed towards areas where they have the greatest impact on populations.
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| 5. |
- Edwards, Robert A., et al.
(författare)
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Global phylogeography and ancient evolution of the widespread human gut virus crAssphage
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Microbiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-5276. ; 4:10, s. 1727-1736
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microbiomes are vast communities of microorganisms and viruses that populate all natural ecosystems. Viruses have been considered to be the most variable component of microbiomes, as supported by virome surveys and examples of high genomic mosaicism. However, recent evidence suggests that the human gut virome is remarkably stable compared with that of other environments. Here, we investigate the origin, evolution and epidemiology of crAssphage, a widespread human gut virus. Through a global collaboration, we obtained DNA sequences of crAssphage from more than one-third of the world's countries and showed that the phylogeography of crAssphage is locally clustered within countries, cities and individuals. We also found fully colinear crAssphage-like genomes in both Old-World and New-World primates, suggesting that the association of crAssphage with primates may be millions of years old. Finally, by exploiting a large cohort of more than 1,000 individuals, we tested whether crAssphage is associated with bacterial taxonomic groups of the gut microbiome, diverse human health parameters and a wide range of dietary factors. We identified strong correlations with different clades of bacteria that are related to Bacteroidetes and weak associations with several diet categories, but no significant association with health or disease. We conclude that crAssphage is a benign cosmopolitan virus that may have coevolved with the human lineage and is an integral part of the normal human gut virome.
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| 6. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 7. |
- Leigh, R. S., et al.
(författare)
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Vibrational modes of sulfur defects in GaP
- 2003
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Ingår i: Physical Review B. Condensed Matter and Materials Physics. - 1098-0121 .- 1550-235X. ; 68:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- First principles calculations carried out on GaP containing sulfur donors 32SP (95%) and34SP (5%) show that both the neutral and ionized donors are located on substitutional sites and have weak S-Ga bonds. For the sulfur impurity in its positive charge state the calculations give gap modes for 32S and34S at frequencies close to those found experimentally. Modes within the gap are also predicted for neutral sulfur at frequencies within a few cm-1 of their charged-state counterparts. However, the SP0 donor has a very low apparent charge (i.e. oscillator strength), its calculated integrated absorption cross section being only ∼3% of that for the SP+ defect. These results support an earlier explanation of the failure to detect gap modes from SP0 in infrared measurements. Calculated and observed apparent charges for the SP+ donor are compared, and the importance of taking due account of the different geometries that apply to the theoretical calculations and infrared experiments is emphasized.
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| 8. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 9. |
- Orton, Glenn S., et al.
(författare)
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Mid-infrared spectroscopy of Uranus from the Spitzer Infrared Spectrometer : 1. Determination of the mean temperature structure of the upper troposphere and stratosphere
- 2014
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Ingår i: Icarus. - : Elsevier BV. - 0019-1035 .- 1090-2643. ; 243, s. 494-513
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- On 2007 December 16-17, spectra were acquired of the disk of Uranus by the Spitzer Infrared Spectrometer (IRS), ten days after the planet's equinox, when its equator was close to the sub-Earth point. This spectrum provides the highest-resolution broad-band spectrum ever obtained for Uranus from space, allowing a determination of the disk-averaged temperature and molecule composition to a greater degree of accuracy than ever before. The temperature profiles derived from the Voyager radio occultation experiment by Lindal et al. (Lindal, G.F., Lyons, J.R., Sweetnam, D.N., Eshleman, V.R., Hinson, D.P. [1987]. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 14987-15001) and revisions suggested by Sromovsky et al. (Sromovsky, L.A., Fry, P.A., Kim, J.H. [2011]. Icarus 215, 292-312) that match these data best are those that assume a high abundance of methane in the deep atmosphere. However, none of these model profiles provides a satisfactory fit over the full spectral range sampled. This result could be the result of spatial differences between global and low-latitudinal regions, changes in time, missing continuum opacity sources such as stratospheric hazes or unknown tropospheric constituents, or undiagnosed systematic problems with either the Voyager radio-occultation or the Spitzer IRS data sets. The spectrum is compatible with the stratospheric temperatures derived from the Voyager ultraviolet occultations measurements by Herbert et al. (Herbert, F. et al. [1987]. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 15093-15109), but it is incompatible with the hot stratospheric temperatures derived from the same data by Stevens et al. (Stevens, M.H., Strobel, D.F., Herbert, F.H. [1993]. Icarus 101, 45-63). Thermospheric temperatures determined from the analysis of the observed H2 quadrupole emission features are colder than those derived by Herbert et al. at pressures less than ~1μbar. Extrapolation of the nominal model spectrum to far-infrared through millimeter wavelengths shows that the spectrum arising solely from H2 collision-induced absorption is too warm to reproduce observations between wavelengths of 0.8 and 3.3mm. Adding an additional absorber such as H2S provides a reasonable match to the spectrum, although a unique identification of the responsible absorber is not yet possible with available data. An immediate practical use for the spectrum resulting from this model is to establish a high-precision continuum flux model for use as an absolute radiometric standard for future astronomical observations.
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| 10. |
- Orton, Glenn S., et al.
(författare)
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Mid-infrared spectroscopy of Uranus from the Spitzer infrared spectrometer : 2. Determination of the mean composition of the upper troposphere and stratosphere
- 2014
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Ingår i: Icarus. - : Elsevier BV. - 0019-1035 .- 1090-2643. ; 243, s. 471-493
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mid-infrared spectral observations Uranus acquired with the Infrared Spectrometer (IRS) on the Spitzer Space Telescope are used to determine the abundances of C2H2, C2H6, CH3C2H, C4H2, CO2, and tentatively CH3 on Uranus at the time of the 2007 equinox. For vertically uniform eddy diffusion coefficients in the range 2200-2600cm2s-1, photochemical models that reproduce the observed methane emission also predict C2H6 profiles that compare well with emission in the 11.6-12.5μm wavelength region, where the υ9 band of C2H6 is prominent. Our nominal model with a uniform eddy diffusion coefficient Kzz=2430cm2s-1 and a CH4 tropopause mole fraction of 1.6×10-5 provides a good fit to other hydrocarbon emission features, such as those of C2H2 and C4H2, but the model profile for CH3C2H must be scaled by a factor of 0.43, suggesting that improvements are needed in the chemical reaction mechanism for C3Hx species. The nominal model is consistent with a CH3D/CH4 ratio of 3.0±0.2×10-4. From the best-fit scaling of these photochemical-model profiles, we derive column abundances above the 10-mbar level of 4.5+01.1/-0.8×1019molecule-cm-2 for CH4, 6.2±1.0×1016molecule-cm-2 for C2H2 (with a value 24% higher from a different longitudinal sampling), 3.1±0.3×1016molecule-cm-2 for C2H6, 8.6±2.6×1013molecule-cm-2 for CH3C2H, 1.8±0.3×1013molecule-cm-2 for C4H2, and 1.7±0.4×1013molecule-cm-2 for CO2 on Uranus. A model with Kzz increasing with altitude fits the observed spectrum and requires CH4 and C2H6 column abundances that are 54% and 45% higher than their respective values in the nominal model, but the other hydrocarbons and CO2 are within 14% of their values in the nominal model. Systematic uncertainties arising from errors in the temperature profile are estimated very conservatively by assuming an unrealistic "alternative" temperature profile that is nonetheless consistent with the observations; for this profile the column abundance of CH4 is over four times higher than in the nominal model, but the column abundances of the hydrocarbons and CO2 differ from their value in the nominal model by less than 22%. The CH3D/CH4 ratio is the same in both the nominal model with its uniform Kzz as in the vertically variable Kzz model, and it is 10% lower with the "alternative" temperature profile than the nominal model. There is no compelling evidence for temporal variations in global-average hydrocarbon abundances over the decade between Infrared Space Observatory and Spitzer observations, but we cannot preclude a possible large increase in the C2H2 abundance since the Voyager era. Our results have implications with respect to the influx rate of exogenic oxygen species and the production rate of stratospheric hazes on Uranus, as well as the C4H2 vapor pressure over C4H2 ice at low temperatures.
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