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- Dahal, Prabin, et al.
(författare)
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Competing risk events in antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria : a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : BMC. - 1475-2875 .- 1475-2875. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.Methods: Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.Results: Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (rho): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [rho: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.Conclusions: The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
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- Maiga, Bakary, et al.
(författare)
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Fc gamma Receptor IIa-H131R Polymorphism and Malaria Susceptibility in Sympatric Ethnic Groups, Fulani and Dogon of Mali
- 2014
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Immunology. - : Wiley. - 0300-9475 .- 1365-3083. ; 79:1, s. 43-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has been previously shown that there are some interethnic differences in susceptibility to malaria between two sympatric ethnic groups of Mali, the Fulani and the Dogon. The lower susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum malaria seen in the Fulani has not been fully explained by genetic polymorphisms previously known to be associated with malaria resistance, including haemoglobin S (HbS), haemoglobin C (HbC), alpha-thalassaemia and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. Given the observed differences in the distribution of FcγRIIa allotypes among different ethnic groups and with malaria susceptibility that have been reported, we analysed the rs1801274-R131H polymorphism in the FcγRIIa gene in a study of Dogon and Fulani in Mali (n = 939). We confirm that the Fulani have less parasite densities, less parasite prevalence, more spleen enlargement and higher levels of total IgG antibodies (anti-CSP, anti-AMA1, anti-MSP1 and anti-MSP2) and more total IgE (P < 0.05) compared with the Dogon ethnic group. Furthermore, the Fulani exhibit higher frequencies of the blood group O (56.5%) compared with the Dogon (43.5%) (P < 0.001). With regard to the FcγRIIa polymorphism and allele frequency, the Fulani group have a higher frequency of the H allele (Fulani 0.474, Dogon 0.341, P < 0.0001), which was associated with greater total IgE production (P = 0.004). Our findings show that the FcγRIIa polymorphism might have an implication in the relative protection seen in the Fulani tribe, with confirmatory studies required in other malaria endemic settings.
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- Dahal, Prabin, et al.
(författare)
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Temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence following artemisinin-based combination therapy : an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Nature. - 1475-2875 .- 1475-2875. ; 21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.Methods: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up.Results: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with <= 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up following AL underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.8 percentage points compared to day 63 estimates and those limited to 42 days following DP underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.0 percentage points compared to day 42 estimates. The analysis was limited by few clinical trials following patients for longer than 42 days (9 out of 83 trials) and the imprecision of PCR genotyping which overcalls recrudescence in areas of higher transmission biasing the later distribution.Conclusions: Restricting follow-up of clinical efficacy trials to day 28 for AL and day 42 for DP will miss a proportion of late recrudescent treatment failures but will have a modest impact in derived efficacy. The results highlight that as genotyping methods improve consideration should be given for trials with longer duration of follow-up to detect early indications of emerging drug resistance.
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- Maiga, Bakary, et al.
(författare)
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Human Candidate Polymorphisms in Sympatric Ethnic Groups Differing in Malaria Susceptibility in Mali
- 2013
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Malaria still remains a major public health problem in Mali, although disease susceptibility varies between ethnic groups, particularly between the Fulani and Dogon. These two sympatric groups share similar socio-cultural factors and malaria transmission rates, but Fulani individuals tend to show significantly higher spleen enlargement scores, lower parasite prevalence, and seem less affected by the disease than their Dogon neighbours. We have used genetic polymorphisms from malaria-associated genes to investigate associations with various malaria metrics between the Fulanai and Dogon groups. Two cross sectional surveys (transmission season 2006, dry season 2007) were performed. Healthy volunteers from the both ethnic groups (n=939) were recruited in a rural setting. In each survey, clinical (spleen enlargement, axillary temperature, weight) and parasitological data (malaria parasite densities and species) were collected, as well as blood samples. One hundred and sixty six SNPs were genotyped and 5 immunoassays (AMA1, CSP, MSP1, MSP2, total IgE) were performed on the DNA and serum samples respectively. The data confirm the reduced malaria susceptibility in the Fulani, with a higher level of the protective O-blood group, and increased circulating antibody levels to several malaria antigens (p<10(-15)). We identified SNP allele frequency differences between the 2 ethnic groups in CD36, IL4, RTN3 and ADCY9. Moreover, polymorphisms in FCER1A, RAD50, TNF, SLC22A4, and IL13 genes were correlated with antibody production (p-value<0.003). Further work is required to understand the mechanisms underpinning these genetic factors.
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- Mansoor, Rashid, et al.
(författare)
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Haematological consequences of acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria : a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network pooled analysis of individual patient data
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : Springer Nature. - 1741-7015. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundPlasmodium falciparum malaria is associated with anaemia-related morbidity, attributable to host, parasite and drug factors. We quantified the haematological response following treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria to identify the factors associated with malarial anaemia.MethodsIndividual patient data from eligible antimalarial efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, available through the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository prior to August 2015, were pooled using standardised methodology. The haematological response over time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with nonlinear terms for time, and the model was then used to estimate the mean haemoglobin at day of nadir and day 7. Multivariable logistic regression quantified risk factors for moderately severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 7 g/dL) at day 0, day 3 and day 7 as well as a fractional fall >= 25% at day 3 and day 7.ResultsA total of 70,226 patients, recruited into 200 studies between 1991 and 2013, were included in the analysis: 50,859 (72.4%) enrolled in Africa, 18,451 (26.3%) in Asia and 916 (1.3%) in South America. The median haemoglobin concentration at presentation was 9.9 g/dL (range 5.0-19.7 g/dL) in Africa, 11.6 g/dL (range 5.0-20.0 g/dL) in Asia and 12.3 g/dL (range 6.9-17.9 g/dL) in South America. Moderately severe anaemia (Hb < 7g/dl) was present in 8.4% (4284/50,859) of patients from Africa, 3.3% (606/18,451) from Asia and 0.1% (1/916) from South America. The nadir haemoglobin occurred on day 2 post treatment with a mean fall from baseline of 0.57 g/dL in Africa and 1.13 g/dL in Asia. Independent risk factors for moderately severe anaemia on day 7, in both Africa and Asia, included moderately severe anaemia at baseline (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 16.10 and AOR = 23.00, respectively), young age (age < 1 compared to >= 12 years AOR = 12.81 and AOR = 6.79, respectively), high parasitaemia (AOR = 1.78 and AOR = 1.58, respectively) and delayed parasite clearance (AOR = 2.44 and AOR = 2.59, respectively). In Asia, patients treated with an artemisinin-based regimen were at significantly greater risk of moderately severe anaemia on day 7 compared to those treated with a non-artemisinin-based regimen (AOR = 2.06 [95%CI 1.39-3.05], p < 0.001).ConclusionsIn patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, the nadir haemoglobin occurs 2 days after starting treatment. Although artemisinin-based treatments increase the rate of parasite clearance, in Asia they are associated with a greater risk of anaemia during recovery.
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