| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Pham, Binh Thai, et al.
(författare)
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Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Forest Fire Modeling and Prediction
- 2020
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Ingår i: Symmetry. - Switzerland : MDPI. - 2073-8994. ; 12:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predicting and mapping fire susceptibility is a top research priority in fire-prone forests worldwide. This study evaluates the abilities of the Bayes Network (BN), Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT), and Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLP) machine learning methods for the prediction and mapping fire susceptibility across the Pu Mat National Park, Nghe An Province, Vietnam. The modeling methodology was formulated based on processing the information from the 57 historical fires and a set of nine spatially explicit explanatory variables, namely elevation, slope degree, aspect, average annual temperate, drought index, river density, land cover, and distance from roads and residential areas. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and seven other performance metrics, the models were validated in terms of their abilities to elucidate the general fire behaviors in the Pu Mat National Park and to predict future fires. Despite a few differences between the AUC values, the BN model with an AUC value of 0.96 was dominant over the other models in predicting future fires. The second best was the DT model (AUC = 0.94), followed by the NB (AUC = 0.939), and MLR (AUC = 0.937) models. Our robust analysis demonstrated that these models are sufficiently robust in response to the training and validation datasets change. Further, the results revealed that moderate to high levels of fire susceptibilities are associated with ~19% of the Pu Mat National Park where human activities are numerous. This study and the resultant susceptibility maps provide a basis for developing more efficient fire-fighting strategies and reorganizing policies in favor of sustainable management of forest resources.
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| 3. |
- Luu, Chinh, et al.
(författare)
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Framework of Spatial Flood Risk Assessment for a Case Study in Quang Binh Province, Vietnam
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - Switzerland : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 12:7, s. 1-17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Vietnam has been extensively affected by floods, suffering heavy losses in human life andproperty. While the Vietnamese government has focused on structural measures of flood defence such as levees and early warning systems, the country still lacks flood risk assessment methodologies and frameworks at local and national levels. In response to this gap, this study developed a flood risk assessment framework that uses historical flood mark data and a high- resolution digital elevation model to create an inundation map, then combined this map with exposure and vulnerability data to develop a holistic flood risk assessment map. The case study is the October 2010 flood event in Quang Binh province, which caused 74 deaths, 210 injuries, 188,628 flooded properties, 9019 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, and widespread damages to canals, levees, and roads. The final flood risk map showed a total inundation area of 64348 ha, in which 8.3% area of low risk, 16.3% area of medium risk, 12.0% area of high risk, 37.1% area of very high risk, and 26.2% area of extremely high risk. The holistic flood risk assessment map of QuangBinh province is a valuable tool and source for flood preparedness activities at the local scale.
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| 4. |
- Nguyen, Hai Nam, et al.
(författare)
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A Blockchain-based SDN East/West Interface
- 2022
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Ingår i: 2022 IEEE GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS CONFERENCE (GLOBECOM 2022). - : IEEE. - 9781665435406 - 9781665435413 ; , s. 5759-5764
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Software-Defined Networking (SDN) architecture was developed to address the shortcomings of traditional network architectures. It allows system administrators to easily manage and configure the network by separating and abstracting the control plane from the data plane. All the knowledge and intelligence of SDN is concentrated in a software entity called the SDN controller, making the network programmable. However, a large-scale SDN architecture, particularly in the IoT domain, requires the implementation of a physically distributed control mechanism. Such a mechanism, based on the East/West interface raises many challenges in terms of scalability, reliability, security, consistency, and traceability. The development of the Blockchain allows addressing some of these challenges. In this paper, we present a design using Blockchain technology to improve SDNs in terms of trackability and discuss the adaptations required for large-scale deployment. Experimental results clearly show that the use of a proof-of-authority consensus algorithm in combination with a Merkle tree approach reduces the impact in terms of latency as well as in terms of Gas consumption.
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| 5. |
- Nguyen, Hai Nam, et al.
(författare)
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A survey of Blockchain technologies applied to software-defined networking : Research challenges and solutions
- 2021
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Ingår i: IET Wireless Sensor Systems. - : Wiley. - 2043-6386 .- 2043-6394. ; 11:6, s. 233-247
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Software-Defined Networking (SDN) brought a groundbreaking idea to facilitate network system management by decoupling and abstracting the Control plane and Data plane of traditional networks. The centralised control offers network administrators many benefits such as a global view of the network, programmability, dynamic updating of forwarding rules, and software-based traffic analysis. The SDN architecture has been applied a lot in practice, and especially in Internet of Things (IoT) platforms. With the superiority of SDN, IoT devices can be managed and configured much more easily when combined. However, SDN also raises many challenges in terms of scalability, reliability, and security. Blockchain is another promising solution for secure information storage and transmission technology that operates without a centralised authority. Applying Blockchain technology into SDN can address some of the current issues of SDN by providing decentralised methods to authenticate exchanged network information. This study provides a comprehensive survey on Blockchain technologies applied to SDN in both security and non-security fields. First, related studies and an overview of SDN and the background of Blockchain technology are presented. Then, the authors review how Blockchain technologies are applied in SDN from two perspectives: non-security and security-aware approaches. Finally, challenges and broader perspectives are discussed.
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| 6. |
- Nguyen-Tien, Thang, et al.
(författare)
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The Distribution and Composition of Vector Abundance in Hanoi City, Vietnam : Association with Livestock Keeping and Flavivirus Detection
- 2021
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Ingår i: Viruses. - : MDPI. - 1999-4915. ; 13:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Dengue virus and Japanese encephalitis virus are two common flaviviruses that are spread widely by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes. Livestock keeping is vital for cities; however, it can pose the risk of increasing the mosquito population. Our study explored how livestock keeping in and around a large city is associated with the presence of mosquitoes and the risk of them spreading flaviviruses.Methods: An entomological study was conducted in 6 districts with 233 households with livestock, and 280 households without livestock, in Hanoi city. BG-Sentinel traps and CDC light traps were used to collect mosquitoes close to animal farms and human habitats. Adult mosquitoes were counted, identified to species level, and grouped into 385 pools, which were screened for flaviviruses using a pan-flavivirus qPCR protocol and sequencing.Results: A total of 12,861 adult mosquitoes were collected at the 513 households, with 5 different genera collected, of which the Culex genus was the most abundant. Our study found that there was a positive association between livestock keeping and the size of the mosquito population-most predominantly between pig rearing and Culex species (p < 0.001). One pool of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, collected in a peri-urban district, was found to be positive for Japanese encephalitis virus.Conclusions: The risk of flavivirus transmission in urban areas of Hanoi city due to the spread of Culex and Aedes mosquitoes could be facilitated by livestock keeping.
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| 7. |
- Pham, Binh Thai, et al.
(författare)
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A Comparative Study of Kernel Logistic Regression, Radial Basis Function Classifier, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, and Logistic Model Tree for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water. - Switzerland : MDPI. - 2073-4441. ; 12:1, s. 1-21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk of flash floods is currently an important problem in many parts of Vietnam. In this study, we used four machine-learning methods, namely Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR), Radial Basis Function Classifier (RBFC), Multinomial Naïve Bayes (NBM), and Logistic Model Tree (LMT) to generate flash flood susceptibility maps at the minor part of Nghe An province of the Center region (Vietnam) where recurrent flood problems are being experienced. Performance of these four methods was evaluated to select the best method for flash flood susceptibility mapping. In the model studies, ten flash flood conditioning factors, namely soil, slope, curvature, river density, flow direction, distance from rivers, elevation, aspect, land use, and geology, were chosen based on topography and geo-environmental conditions of the site. For the validation of models, the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC), and various statistical indices were used. The results indicated that performance of all the models is good for generating flash flood susceptibility maps (AUC = 0.983–0.988). However, performance of LMT model is the best among the four methods (LMT: AUC = 0.988; KLR: AUC = 0.985; RBFC: AUC = 0.984; and NBM: AUC = 0.983). The present study would be useful for the construction of accurate flash flood susceptibility maps with the objectives of identifying flood-susceptible areas/zones for proper flash flood risk management.
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| 8. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 9. |
- Trinh, Duc Anh, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of terrestrial runoff on organic matter, trophic state, and phytoplankton in a tropical, upland reservoir
- 2016
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Ingår i: Aquatic Sciences. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1015-1621 .- 1420-9055. ; 78:2, s. 367-379
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of organic matter inputs from agricultural, forest and domestic sources on aquatic processes has been considerably less studied in tropical reservoirs relative to temperate systems despite the high number of these small aquatic systems in the tropics. Here we present the results of an in situ mesocosm study that examined the impact of allochthonous organic matter on a headwater reservoir in Northern Vietnam. We examined the impact of wastewater and soils from floodplain paddies, Acacia mangium plantations and from upland slopes on the metabolic status of the reservoir. The addition of floodplain paddy soils to the reservoir water led to a rapid switch in metabolic status from net autotrophic to net heterotrophic. In contrast, the addition of wastewater in low concentrations had less impact on the metabolic status of the reservoir, reflecting the low population density in the area. The addition of floodplain paddy soils also increased phytoplankton diversity and evenness relative to the control. In summary, soils from floodplain paddies and from A. mangium plantations had the highest impact on the reservoir, with upland soils and wastewater having less of an impact. We also found that primary production in this reservoir was nitrogen limited. In order to avoid accelerating the impact of runoff on the reservoir, future management options should perhaps focus on minimizing water and sediment runoff from upstream paddy fields and from A. mangium plantations. These results also underline the importance of studying these upland tropical water bodies that can contribute an important but, on the whole, ignored part of the global carbon balance.
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| 10. |
- Berglund, Björn, et al.
(författare)
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Clonal spread of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae among patients at admission and discharge at a Vietnamese neonatal intensive care unit
- 2021
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Ingår i: Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control. - : BMC. - 2047-2994. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The increasing prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) is a growing problem globally, particularly in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs). Previous studies have shown high rates of CRE colonisation among patients at hospitals in LMICs, with increased risk of hospital-acquired infections. Methods We isolated carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) from faecal samples collected in 2017 from patients at admission and discharge at a Vietnamese neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). 126 CRKP were whole-genome sequenced. The phylogenetic relationship between the isolates and between clinical CRKP isolates collected in 2012-2018 at the same hospital were investigated. Results NDM-type carbapenemase-(61%) and KPC-2-encoding genes (41%) were the most common carbapenem resistance genes observed among the admission and discharge isolates. Most isolates (56%) belonged to three distinct clonal clusters of ST15, carrying bla(KPC-2), bla(NDM-1) and bla(NDM-4), respectively. Each cluster also comprised clinical isolates from blood collected at the study hospital. The most dominant ST15 clone was shown to be related to isolates collected from the same hospital as far back as in 2012. Conclusions Highly resistant CRKP were found colonising admission and discharge patients at a Vietnamese NICU, emphasising the importance of continued monitoring. Whole-genome sequencing revealed a population of CRKP consisting mostly of ST15 isolates in three clonally related clusters, each related to blood isolates collected from the same hospital. Furthermore, clinical isolates collected from previous years (dating back to 2012) were shown to likely be clonally descended from ST15 isolates in the largest cluster, suggesting a successful hospital strain which can colonise inpatients.
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