| 1. |
- Bruce, Louise C, et al.
(författare)
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A multi-lake comparative analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM) : Stress-testing across a global observatory network
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 102, s. 274-291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The modelling community has identified challenges for the integration and assessment of lake models due to the diversity of modelling approaches and lakes. In this study, we develop and assess a one-dimensional lake model and apply it to 32 lakes from a global observatory network. The data set included lakes over broad ranges in latitude, climatic zones, size, residence time, mixing regime and trophic level. Model performance was evaluated using several error assessment metrics, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted for nine parameters that governed the surface heat exchange and mixing efficiency. There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance and predictions of temperature were less sensitive to model parameters than prediction of thermocline depth and Schmidt stability. The study provides guidance to where the general model approach and associated assumptions work, and cases where adjustments to model parameterisations and/or structure are required.
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| 2. |
- Janssen, Annette B. G., et al.
(författare)
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Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models : a community perspective
- 2015
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Ingår i: Aquatic Ecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1386-2588 .- 1573-5125. ; 49:4, s. 513-548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary.
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| 3. |
- Jiménez-Navarro, Inmaculada C., et al.
(författare)
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Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 885
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is simultaneously affecting lakes and their catchments, resulting in altered runoff patterns in the catchment and modified mixing and biogeochemical dynamics in lakes. The effects of climate change in a catchment will eventually have an impact on the dynamics of a downstream water body as well. An integrated model would allow considering how changes in the watershed affect the lake, but coupled modelling studies are rare. In this study we integrate a catchment model (SWAT+) and a lake model (GOTM-WET) to obtain holistic predictions for Lake Erken, Sweden. Using five different global climate models, projections of climate, catchment loads and lake water quality for the mid and end of the 21st century have been obtained under two future scenarios (SSP 2-45 and SSP 5-85). Temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration will increase in the future, overall resulting in an increase in water inflow to the lake. An increasing importance of surface runoff will also have consequences on the catchment soil, hydrologic flow paths, and the input of nutrients to the lake. In the lake, water temperatures will rise, leading to increased stratification and a drop in oxygen levels. Nitrate levels are predicted to remain unchanged, while phosphate and ammonium levels increase. A coupled catchment-lake configuration such as that illustrated here allows prediction of future biogeochemical conditions of a lake, including linking land use changes to changing lake conditions, as well as eutrophication and browning studies. Since climate affects both the lake and the catchment, simulations of climate change should ideally take into account both systems.
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| 4. |
- Mesman, Jorrit P., 1993-, et al.
(författare)
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Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake
- 2024
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : European Geosciences Union (EGU). - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 28:8, s. 1791-1802
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes experience shifts in the timing of physical and biogeochemical events as a result of climate warming, and relative changes in the timing of events may have important ecological consequences. Spring, in particular, is a period in which many key processes that regulate the ecology and biogeochemistry of lakes occur and also a time that may experience significant changes under the influence of global warming. In this study, we used a coupled catchment–lake model forced by future climate projections to evaluate changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, the spring phytoplankton peak, and the onset of stratification in a temperate mesotrophic lake. Although the model explained only part of the variation in these events, the overall patterns were simulated with little bias. All four events showed a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming, with ice cover tending to disappear at the end of the century in the most extreme climate scenario. Moreover, relative shifts in the timing of these springtime events also occurred, with the onset of stratification tending to advance more slowly than the other events and the spring phytoplankton peak and ice-off advancing faster in the most extreme climate scenario. The outcomes of this study stress the impact of climate change on the phenology of events in lakes and especially the relative shifts in timing during spring. This can have profound effects on food web dynamics as well as other regulatory processes and influence the lake for the remainder of the growing season.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Mooij, Wolf M., et al.
(författare)
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Serving many at once : How a database approach can create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 61, s. 266-273
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulation modelling in ecology is a field that is becoming increasingly compartmentalized. Here we propose a Database Approach To Modelling (DATM) to create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling with differential equations. In this approach the storage of ecological knowledge is independent of the language and platform in which the model will be run. To create an instance of the model, the information in the database is translated and augmented with the language and platform specifics. This process is automated so that a new instance can be created each time the database is updated. We describe the approach using the simple Lotka-Volterra model and the complex ecosystem model for shallow lakes PCLake, which we automatically implement in the frameworks OSIRIS, GRIND for MATLAB, ACSL, R, DUFLOW and DELWAQ. A clear advantage of working in a database is the overview it provides. The simplicity of the approach only adds to its elegance.
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| 7. |
- van Gerven, Luuk P. A., et al.
(författare)
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Advantages of concurrent use of multiple software frameworks in water quality modelling using a database approach
- 2015
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Ingår i: Fundamental and Applied Limnology. - : Schweizerbart. - 1863-9135. ; 186:1-2, s. 5-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water quality modelling deals with multidisciplinary questions ranging from fundamental to applied. Addressing this broad range of questions requires multiple analysis techniques and therefore multiple frameworks. Through the recently developed database approach to modelling (DATM), it has become possible to run a model in multiple software frameworks without much overhead. Here we apply DATM to the ecosystem model for ditches PCDitch and its twin model for shallow lakes PCLake. Using DATM, we run these models in six frameworks (ACSL, DELWAQ, DUFLOW, GRIND for MATLAB, OSIRIS and R), and report on the possible model analyses with tools provided by each framework. We conclude that the dynamic link between frameworks and models resulting from DATM has the following main advantages: it allows one to use the framework one is familiar with for most model analyses and eases switching between frameworks for complementary model analyses, including the switch between a 0-D and 1-D to 3-D setting. Moreover, the strength of each framework - including runtime performance - can now be easily exploited. We envision that a community-based further development of the concept can contribute to the future development of water quality modelling, not only by addressing multidisciplinary questions but also by facilitating the exchange of models and process formulations within the community of water quality modellers.
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