| 1. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a moreconsensual picture of past climate variability.
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| 2. |
- Esper, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium
- 2016
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 145, s. 134-151
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tree-ring chronologies are widely used to reconstruct high-to low-frequency variations in growing season temperatures over centuries to millennia. The relevance of these timeseries in large-scale climate reconstructions is often determined by the strength of their correlation against instrumental temperature data. However, this single criterion ignores several important quantitative and qualitative characteristics of tree-ring chronologies. Those characteristics are (i) data homogeneity, (ii) sample replication, (iii) growth coherence, (iv) chronology development, and (v) climate signal including the correlation with instrumental data. Based on these 5 characteristics, a reconstruction-scoring scheme is proposed and applied to 39 published, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from Asia, Europe, North America, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results reveal no reconstruction scores highest in every category and each has their own strengths and weaknesses. Reconstructions that perform better overall include N-Scan and Finland from Europe, E-Canada from North America, Yamal and Dzhelo from Asia. Reconstructions performing less well include W-Himalaya and Karakorum from Asia, Tatra and S-Finland from Europe, and Great Basin from North America. By providing a comprehensive set of criteria to evaluate tree-ring chronologies we hope to improve the development of large-scale temperature reconstructions spanning the past millennium. All reconstructions and their corresponding scores are provided at www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology.
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| 3. |
- Klippel, Lara, et al.
(författare)
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A 1200+year reconstruction of temperature extremes for the northeastern Mediterranean region
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 39:4, s. 2336-2350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Proxy evidence is necessary to place current temperature and hydroclimatic changes in a long-term context and to assess the full range of natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Here, we present the first millennium-length reconstruction of late summer (August-September) temperature variability for the Mediterranean region. We compiled 132 maximum latewood density (MXD) tree-ring series of living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees from a network of four high-elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of Greece. Forty series reach back into the first millennium and the oldest sample dates to 575 CE. At annual to decadal scales, the record correlates significantly with August-September temperatures over the Balkan Peninsula and northeastern Mediterranean (r1950-2014 = 0.71, p < 0.001). We produce two reconstructions emphasizing interannual and decadal scale variance over the past millennium. Analysis of temperature extremes reveals the coldest summers occurred in 1035, 1117, 1217, 1884 and 1959 and the coldest decades were 1061-1070 and 1811-1820. The warmest summers occurred in 1240 and 1474, and the warmest decades were 1141-1150 and 1481-1490. Comparison of this new reconstruction with MXD-based summer temperature reconstructions across Europe reveals synchronized occurrences of extreme cool summers in the northeastern Mediterranean, and an antiphase-relationship with warm summer temperatures over the British Isles and Scandinavia. This temperature dipole is related to anomalies in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic Jet. Despite the representation of common atmospheric forcing patterns, the occurrence of warm extremes is limited to few events, suggesting potential weaknesses of MXD to record warm temperature anomalies. In addition, we acknowledge problems in the observational data to capture local temperature variability due to small scale topographic differences in this high-elevation landscape. At a broader geographical scale, the occurrence of common cold summer extremes is restricted to years with volcanically induced changes in radiative forcing.
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| 4. |
- Seim, Andrea, et al.
(författare)
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Climate sensitivity of a millennium-long pine chronology from Albania
- 2012
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Ingår i: Climate Research. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 51:3, s. 217-228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Considerable progress has been made in assessing European climate variations of the last millennium, but little is known about the Mediterranean region and particularly its eastern part including the Balkan Peninsula. This area, however, will be particularly vulnerable to a predicted temperature increase and precipitation decrease, likely resulting in amplified drought extremes and episodes. Here we present a well-replicated composite tree-ring width chronology of millennial length from Albania, Balkan Peninsula. The Pinus heldreichii Christ dataset contains 302 series from 217 living and dead trees from 3 high-elevation sites, and spans the years 968–2008. Signal strength and growth–climate relationships were investigated using subsets according to location, age class, and growth level, as well as differently detrended chronology versions. Growth comparisons amongst the 3 sites’ chronologies, between age classes and between growth-rate groups reveal an overall strong common signal. Growth–climate relationships over the last 100 yr, however, indicate that tree-ring formation does not depend on one single dominant factor, but rather on various combinations of summer precipitation and temperature resulting in temporally varying drought sensitivity. Our results emphasize a mixed and variable climate signal, corresponding with findings from other P. heldreichii sites across the Balkan Peninsula and Southern Italy.
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| 5. |
- Seim, Andrea, et al.
(författare)
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Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 35:9, s. 2503-2513
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Mediterranean region is governed by a characteristic climate of summer drought that is likely to increase in duration and intensity under predicted climate change. However, large-scale network analyses investigating spatial aspects of pre-instrumental drought variability for this biogeographic zone are still scarce. In this study we introduce 54 mid- to high-elevation tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies comprising 2186 individual series from pine trees (Pinus spp.). This compilation spans a 4000-km east-west transect from Spain to Turkey, and was subjected to quality control and standardization prior to the development of site chronologies. A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify spatial growth patterns during the network's common period 1862-1976, and new composite TRW chronologies were developed and investigated. The PCA reveals a common variance of 19.7% over the 54 Mediterranean pine chronologies. More interestingly, a dipole pattern in growth variability is found between the western (15% explained variance) and eastern (9.6%) sites, persisting back to 1330 AD. Pine growth on the Iberian Peninsula and Italy favours warm early growing seasons, but summer drought is most critical for ring width formation in the eastern Mediterranean region. Synoptic climate dynamics that have been in operation for the last seven centuries have been identified as the driving mechanism of a distinct east-west dipole in the growth variability of Mediterranean pines.
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| 6. |
- Xu, Guobao, et al.
(författare)
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Century-scale temperature variability and onset of industrial-era warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 53:7-8, s. 4569-4590
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To improve our understanding of climate variability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its sensitivity to external forcings, recent temperature changes need to be placed in a long-term historical context. Here, we present two tree-ring based temperature reconstructions: a 1003-year (1000-2002 CE) annual temperature reconstruction for the northeastern TP (NETP) based on seven series and a 522-year (1489-2010 CE) summer (June-July-August) temperature reconstruction for the southeastern TP (SETP) based on 11 series. Our reconstructions show six centuries of generally warm NETP temperatures (1000-1586 CE), followed by a transition to cooler temperatures (1587-1887 CE for NETP and 1588-1930 CE for SETP). The transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age thus happened in the 1580s in NETP and SETP, which is about 150 years later than in larger-scale (e.g. Asia and the Northern Hemisphere) temperature reconstructions. We found that TP temperature variability, especially in SETP, was influenced by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and that the twentieth century was the warmest on record in NETP and SETP. Our reconstructions and climate model simulations both show industrial-era warming trends, the onset of which happened earlier in NETP (1812 CE) compared to SETP (1887 CE) and other temperature reconstructions for Western China, East Asia, Asia, and the Northern Hemisphere. The early NETP onset of industrial-era warming can likely be explained by NETP's faster warming rate and by local feedback factors (i.e., ice-snow cover-albedo). Comparisons between climate model simulations and our reconstructions reveal that cooler TP temperatures from 1600 to 1800 CE might be related to land-use and land-cover change.
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| 7. |
- Yang, Bao, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - Washington : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 118:30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated treering stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between similar to 2000 and similar to 1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from similar to 1675 to similar to 1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 +/- 4% and 5 +/- 2% lower than during themid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting similar to 2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
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