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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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- Heindel, Jerrold J., et al.
(författare)
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Obesity II : Establishing causal links between chemical exposures and obesity
- 2022
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Ingår i: Biochemical Pharmacology. - : Elsevier. - 0006-2952 .- 1356-1839 .- 1873-2968. ; 199
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obesity is a multifactorial disease with both genetic and environmental components. The prevailing view is that obesity results from an imbalance between energy intake and expenditure caused by overeating and insufficient exercise. We describe another environmental element that can alter the balance between energy intake and energy expenditure: obesogens. Obesogens are a subset of environmental chemicals that act as endocrine disruptors affecting metabolic endpoints. The obesogen hypothesis posits that exposure to endocrine disruptors and other chemicals can alter the development and function of the adipose tissue, liver, pancreas, gastrointestinal tract, and brain, thus changing the set point for control of metabolism. Obesogens can determine how much food is needed to maintain homeostasis and thereby increase the susceptibility to obesity. The most sensitive time for obesogen action is in utero and early childhood, in part via epigenetic programming that can be transmitted to future generations. This review explores the evidence supporting the obesogen hypothesis and highlights knowledge gaps that have prevented widespread acceptance as a contributor to the obesity pandemic. Critically, the obesogen hypothesis changes the narrative from curing obesity to preventing obesity.
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- Secin, Fernando P, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-institutional Study of Symptomatic Deep Venous Thrombosis and Pulmonary Embolism in Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Laparoscopic or Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy
- 2008
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Ingår i: European Urology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-7560 .- 0302-2838. ; 53:1, s. 134-145
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: The true incidence of symptomatic deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical prostatectomy is unknown. Our aim was to determine the incidence of symptomatic DVT and PE and the risk factors for these complications. METHODS: Fourteen surgeons from 13 referral institutions from both Europe and the United States provided retrospective data for all 5951 patients treated with laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP), with or without robotic assistance, since the start of their institution's experience. Symptomatic DVT and PE within 90 d of surgery were regarded as venous thromboembolism (VTE). DVT was diagnosed mostly by Doppler ultrasound or contrast venography and PE by lung ventilation/perfusion scan or chest computed tomography or both. Statistical analysis included evaluation of incidence of symptomatic DVT and PE and risk factors as determined by exact methods and logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 5951 patients in the study, 31 developed symptomatic VTE (0.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4%, 0.7%). Among patients with an event, 22 (71%) had DVT only, 4 had PE without identified DVT, and 5 had both. Two patients died of PE. Prior DVT (odds ratio [OR]=13.5; 95%CI, 1.4, 61.3), current tobacco smoking (OR=2.8; 95%CI, 1.0, 7.3), larger prostate volume (OR=1.18; 95%CI, 1.09, 1.28), patient re-exploration (OR=20.6; 95%CI, 6.6, 54.0), longer operative time (OR=1.05; 95%CI, 1.02, 1.09), and longer hospital stay (OR=1.05; 95%CI, 1.01, 1.09) were associated with VTE in univariate analysis. Neoadjuvant therapy, body mass index, surgical experience, surgical approach, pathologic stage, perioperative transfusion, and heparin administration were not significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of symptomatic VTE after LRP is low. These data do not support the administration of prophylactic heparin to all patients undergoing LRP, especially those without risk factors for VTE.
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- Ayas, Mouhab, et al.
(författare)
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Second Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Patients with Fanconi Anemia and Bone Marrow Failure
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 21:10, s. 1790-1795
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the sole salvage option for individuals who develop graft failure after their first HCT. Data on outcomes after second HCT in patients with Fanconi anemia (FA) are scarce. Here we report outcomes after second allogeneic HCT for FA (n = 81). The indication for second HCT was graft failure after the first HCT. Transplantations were performed between 1990 and 2012. The timing of the second HCT predicted subsequent graft failure and survival. Graft failure was high when the second HCT was performed less than 3 months from the first. The 3-month probability of graft failure was 69% when the interval between the first HCT and second HCT was less than 3 months, compared with 23% when the interval was longer (P < .001). Consequently, the 1-year survival rate was substantially lower when the interval between the first and second HCTs was less than 3 months compared with longer (23% vs 58%; P = .001). The corresponding 5-year probability of survival was 16% and 45%, respectively (P = .006). Taken together, these data suggest that fewer than one-half of patients with FA undergoing a second HCT for graft failure are long-term survivors. There is an urgent need to develop strategies to reduce the rate of graft failure after first HCT.
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