| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Karaye, Kamilu M., et al.
(författare)
-
Incidence, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of peripartum cardiomyopathy in Nigeria : results from the PEACE Registry
- 2020
-
Ingår i: ESC Heart Failure. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2055-5822. ; 7:1, s. 236-244
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence, clinical characteristics and risk factors of peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) in Nigeria.Methods and Results: The study was conducted in 22 hospitals in Nigeria, and PPCM patients were consecutively recruited between June 2017 and March 2018. To determine factors associated with PPCM, the patients were compared with apparently healthy women who recently delivered, as controls. Four hundred six patients were compared with 99 controls. The incidence and disease burden (based on the rate of consecutive recruitment of subjects) varied widely between the six geographical zones of Nigeria. From the North-West zone, 72.3% of the patients was recruited, where an incidence as high as 1 per 96 live births was obtained in a centre, while the disease was uncommon (7.6% of all recruited patients) in the South. Majority of the patients (76.6%) and controls (74.8%) (p = 0.694) were of Hausa-Fulani ethnic group. Atrial fibrillation, intracardiac thrombus, stroke, and right ventricular systolic dysfunction were found in 1.7%, 6.4%, 2.2%, and 54.9% of the patients, respectively. Lack of formal education (odds ratio [OR] 3.08, 95% confidence interval [1.71, 5.53]; P < 0.001), unemployment (OR: 3.28 [2.05, 5.24]; P < 0.001), underweight (OR: 13.43 [4.17, 43.21]; P < 0.001) and history of pre-eclampsia (OR: 9.01 [2.18, 37.75]; P = 0.002) emerged as independent PPCM risk factors using regression models. Customary hot baths (OR: 1.24 [0.80, 1.93]; P = 0.344), pap enriched with dried lake salt (OR: 1.20 [0.74, 1.94]; P = 0.451), and Hausa-Fulani ethnicity (OR: 1.11 [0.67, 1.84]; P = 0.698) did not achieve significance as PPCM risk factors.Conclusions: In Nigeria, the burden of PPCM was greatest in the North-West zone, which has the highest known incidence. PPCM was predicted by sociodemographic factors and pre-eclampsia, which should be considered in its control at population level. Postpartum customary birth practices and Hausa-Fulani ethnicity were not associated with PPCM in Nigeria.
|
|
| 3. |
- Sa'idu, H., et al.
(författare)
-
Influence of systolic blood pressure on outcomes in Nigerians with peripartum cardiomyopathy
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Nigerian Journal of Clinical Practice. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 1119-3077 .- 2229-7731. ; 25:12, s. 1963-1968
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The relationship between blood pressure (BP) trajectories and outcomes in patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) is not clear.Aim: The study aimed to assess the clinical features and outcomes (all-cause mortality and unrecovered left ventricular [LV] systolic function) of PPCM patients grouped according to their baseline systolic BP (SBP).Patients and Methods: PPCM patients presenting to 14 tertiary hospitals in Nigeria were consecutively recruited between June 2017 and March 2018 and then followed up till March 2019. SBP at first presentation was used to categorize the patients into seven groups: <90, 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, 120-129, 130-139, and ≥140 mmHg. Unrecovered LV systolic function was defined as echocardiographic LV ejection fraction (LVEF) below 55% at the last profiling.Results: Two hundred and twenty-seven patients were recruited and followed up for a median of 18 months. Of these, 4.0% had <90 mmHg, 16.3% had 90-99 mmHg, 24.7% had 100-109 mmHg, 24.7% had 110-119 mmHg, 18.5% had 120-129 mmHg, 7.5% had 130-139 mmHg, and 4.4% had ≥140 mmHg of SBP at presentation. The highest frequency of all-cause mortality was recorded among patients with SBP ≤90 mmHg (30.8%) followed by those with 90-99 mmHg (20.5%) (P = 0.076), while unrecovered LV systolic function did not differ significantly between the groups (P = 0.659). In a Cox proportional regression model for all-cause mortality, SBP <90 mmHg had a hazard ratio (HR) of 4.00 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-10.78, P = 0.006), LVEF had an HR of 0.94 (95% CI 0.91-0.98, P = 0.003, B = 0.06%), and use of angiotensin-converting enzyme or angiotensin receptor and/or β-receptor blockers had an HR of 1.71 (95% CI 0.93-3.16, P = 0.085). However, SBP was not associated with LV function recovery.Conclusion: In our cohort of PPCM patients, one-fifth was hypotensive at presentation. SBP <90 mmHg at presentation was associated with a four-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 18 months.
|
|
