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| 2. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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| 3. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 4. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 119:2, s. 359-374
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
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| 5. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 520:7546, s. 171-179
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Awarming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
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| 6. |
- Weston, David J., et al.
(författare)
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The Sphagnome Project : enabling ecological and evolutionary insights through a genus-level sequencing project
- 2018
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 217:1, s. 16-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even 'extend' to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. Progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Thus, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. Here we introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration, biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses.
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| 7. |
- Kuhn, McKenzie A., et al.
(författare)
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Controls on Stable Methane Isotope Values in Northern Peatlands and Potential Shifts in Values Under Permafrost Thaw Scenarios
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 129:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH4), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH4 production in peatlands will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ13C-CH4) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ13C-CH4 is used in top-down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH4 production pathways and associated δ13C-CH4 values is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ13C-CH4 values from high-latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH4 stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal-Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ13C-CH4 was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ13C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (−61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost-free bogs (−74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (−81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ13C-CH4 was best explained by sedge cover, CH4 concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH (r2 = 0.50, p < 0.001). Emitted δ13C-CH4 varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ13C-CH4. We calculated a mixed atmospheric δ13C-CH4 value for northern peatlands of −65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this value is more sensitive to landscape drying than wetting under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ13C-CH4 values are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models.
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| 8. |
- Loisel, Julie, et al.
(författare)
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A database and synthesis of northern peatland soil properties and Holocene carbon and nitrogen accumulation
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 24:9, s. 1028-1042
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here, we present results from the most comprehensive compilation of Holocene peat soil properties with associated carbon and nitrogen accumulation rates for northern peatlands. Our database consists of 268 peat cores from 215 sites located north of 45 degrees N. It encompasses regions within which peat carbon data have only recently become available, such as the West Siberia Lowlands, the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Kamchatka in Far East Russia, and the Tibetan Plateau. For all northern peatlands, carbon content in organic matter was estimated at 42 +/- 3% (standard deviation) for Sphagnum peat, 51 +/- 2% for non-Sphagnum peat, and at 49 +/- 2% overall. Dry bulk density averaged 0.12 +/- 0.07 g/cm(3), organic matter bulk density averaged 0.11 +/- 0.05 g/cm(3), and total carbon content in peat averaged 47 +/- 6%. In general, large differences were found between Sphagnum and non-Sphagnum peat types in terms of peat properties. Time-weighted peat carbon accumulation rates averaged 23 +/- 2 (standard error of mean) g C/m(2)/yr during the Holocene on the basis of 151 peat cores from 127 sites, with the highest rates of carbon accumulation (25-28 g C/m(2)/yr) recorded during the early Holocene when the climate was warmer than the present. Furthermore, we estimate the northern peatland carbon and nitrogen pools at 436 and 10 gigatons, respectively. The database is publicly available at https://peatlands.lehigh.edu.
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| 9. |
- Ramage, Justine, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 38:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here, we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000–2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 12 (−606, 661) Tg CO2–C yr−1, 38 (22, 53) Tg CH4–C yr−1, and 0.67 (0.07, 1.3) Tg N2O–N yr−1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. Thus, the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, while the CO2 balance was near neutral within its large uncertainties. Undisturbed terrestrial ecosystems had a CO2 sink of −340 (−836, 156) Tg CO2–C yr−1. Vertical emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. When including lateral fluxes for a complete GHG budget, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 144 (−506, 826) Tg C yr−1 and 3 (2, 5) Tg N yr−1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.
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| 10. |
- Olefeldt, D., et al.
(författare)
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Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice- rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 x 10(6) km(2), thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover similar to 20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale.
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