| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Ahmad, Waqas, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of long term meteorological trends in the middle and lower Indus Basin of Pakistan-A non-parametric statistical approach
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 122, s. 282-291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Indus basin of Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change which would directly affect the livelihoods of poor people engaged in irrigated agriculture. The situation could be worse in middle and lower part of this basin which occupies 90% of the irrigated area. The objective of this research is to analyze the long term meteorological trends in the middle and lower parts of Indus basin of Pakistan. We used monthly data from 1971 to 2010 and applied non-parametric seasonal Kendal test for trend detection in combination with seasonal Kendall slope estimator to quantify the magnitude of trends. The meteorological parameters considered were mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature, and rainfall from 12 meteorological stations located in the study region. We examined the reliability and spatial integrity of data by mass-curve analysis and spatial correlation matrices, respectively. Analysis was performed for four seasons (spring-March to May, summer-June to August-fall-September to November and winter-December to February). The results show that max. temperature has an average increasing trend of magnitude +0.16, +0.03, 0.0 and +0.04 degrees C/decade during all the four seasons, respectively. The average trend of min. temperature during the four seasons also increases with magnitude of +0.29, +0.12, +0.36 and +0.36 degrees C/decade, respectively. Persistence of the increasing trend is more pronounced in the min. temperature as compared to the max. temperature on annual basis. Analysis of rainfall data has not shown any noteworthy trend during winter, fall and on annual basis. However during spring and summer season, the rainfall trends vary from -1.15 to +0.93 and -3.86 to +2.46 mm/decade, respectively. It is further revealed that rainfall trends during all seasons are statistically non-significant. Overall the study area is under a significant warming trend with no changes in rainfall.
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| 5. |
- Ali, Muhammad Taha, et al.
(författare)
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Design of High Efficiency Wireless Power Transmission System at Low Resonant Frequency
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a novel design of a wireless power transmission system which transfers an appreciable amount of electrical power wirelessly using low resonant frequency, with an excellent efficiency, and has a very low cost implementation. The designs of induction coils at both source and receiver sides are also presented in this paper. The mechanism for power transmission is through electro-magnetic induction. Also an immense knowledge of electronics was applied in order to design the source and receiver between which this transfer took place. In order to realize this method an AC-AC converter, and AC-DC rectifier were used at source and receiver sides respectively along with the resonant circuits. The work was carried out by the experimental setup and results demonstrate that proposed system design can successfully transfer the amount of power that can be used in many practical applications.
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| 6. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Irshad, Muneeb, et al.
(författare)
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A Brief Description of High Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cell's Operation, Materials, Design, Fabrication Technologies and Performance
- 2016
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Ingår i: Applied Sciences. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-3417. ; 6:3
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Today's world needs highly efficient systems that can fulfill the growing demand for energy. One of the promising solutions is the fuel cell. Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is considered by many developed countries as an alternative solution of energy in near future. A lot of efforts have been made during last decade to make it commercial by reducing its cost and increasing its durability. Different materials, designs and fabrication technologies have been developed and tested to make it more cost effective and stable. This article is focused on the advancements made in the field of high temperature SOFC. High temperature SOFC does not need any precious catalyst for its operation, unlike in other types of fuel cell. Different conventional and innovative materials have been discussed along with properties and effects on the performance of SOFC's components (electrolyte anode, cathode, interconnect and sealing materials). Advancements made in the field of cell and stack design are also explored along with hurdles coming in their fabrication and performance. This article also gives an overview of methods required for the fabrication of different components of SOFC. The flexibility of SOFC in terms fuel has also been discussed. Performance of the SOFC with varying combination of electrolyte, anode, cathode and fuel is also described in this article.
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| 8. |
- Li, Shengli, et al.
(författare)
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Formation of a Novel Polymeric Cadmium(II) Complex Bridged by Sulfur and Thiocyanato Ions
- 2003
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Ingår i: Chemistry Letters. - : Chemical Society of Japan. - 0366-7022 .- 1348-0715. ; 32:8, s. 748-749
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The title complex, {[N(CH3)4]2[Cd(SCN)2S]}n, was prepared by self-assembling from the reaction of a methanol/water (volume ratio, 1/1) solution containing cadmium(II) thiocyanate with equivalent amount of tetramethylammonium thiocyanate. The result of single X-ray determination for the complex reveals that a novel polymeric cadmium(II) complex bridged by sulfur and thiocyanato ions was obtained, which formed a two-dimensional (2D) structure.
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| 9. |
- Tian, Yupeng, et al.
(författare)
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Structural diversity and properties of a series of dinuclear and mononuclear copper(II) and copper(I) carboxylato complexes
- 2002
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Ingår i: New Journal of Chemistry. - : RSC Publishing. - 1144-0546 .- 1369-9261. ; 26:10, s. 1468-1473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The syntheses, crystal structures, magnetic and photoluminescence properties of a series of dinuclear and mononuclear copper(II) and copper(I)N-carbazolylacetate [N-carbazolylacetic acid=Hcabo] with different carboxylato coordination modes are reported. Although the carboxylato group has different coordination modes, the same carboxylate ligand binding to copper ion via four coordinating modes is rare. The crystal structure of complex [Cu2(Cabo)4(dmf)2]·2dmf (1) consists of a symmetrical dimeric Cu(II) carboxylato paddle-wheel core and oxygen atoms from dmf at the apical positions. The dinuclear complex [Cu2(Cabo)3(phen)2]ClO4·H2O·C2H5OH (2) (phen=1,10-phenanthroline) consists of an unusual dimeric core with two copper atoms bridged by three carboxylates one of which is in the η∶η∶μ2 bridging mode and the other two are in the rarer monoatomic bridging mode. To our knowledge, the present bridging mode has not been reported hitherto. Magnetic susceptibilities were measured in the temperature range 2–300 K. It is found that paddle-wheel copper(II) ions in 1 are strongly coupled antiferromagnetically with 2J=−356.4(6) cm−1, whereas complex 2 shows weak antiferromagnetic interaction with a 2J value of −12.8(4) cm−1. Copper(I)N-carbazolylacetate with strong fluorescence in the solid state as well as high thermal stability was obtained by reduction of the copper(II)N-carbazolylacetate using PPh3(triphenylphosphine) in dmf solution.
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| 10. |
- Zhang, Xuanjun, et al.
(författare)
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Two strong emitting coordination polymers with chain and ladder structures
- 2003
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Ingår i: Transition metal chemistry (Weinheim). - Netherlands : Kluwer Academic Publishers. - 0340-4285 .- 1572-901X. ; 28:6, s. 707-711
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two coordination polymers [Zn(Cabo)2(EtOH)2(4,4′-Bipy)]n(1), and [Zn2(Cabo)2(NO3)2(4,4′-Bipy)2]n(2) (Cabo = carbazolylacetate, 4,4′-Bipy = 4,4′-bipyridine) with chain and ladder structures, respectively, were prepared and characterized by X-ray single-crystal structural analysis. The results showed that the different anions of metal salts have a large effect on the construction of coordination frameworks. Both complexes show strong emissions in the solid state as well as high thermal stability.
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