| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Khalid, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Frontier molecular, natural bond orbital, UV-VIS spectral study, solvent influence on geometric parameters, vibrational frequencies and solvation energies of 8-hydroxyquinoline
- 2017
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Ingår i: International Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research. - : International Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research. - 0975-8232. ; 8:2, s. 457-469
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- N-heterocyclic compounds have extensive biological and pharmaceutical applications. 8-Hydroxyquinoline (8-HQ) also plays a significant role in many fields of life. The excellent biological significance of the 8-HQ prompted us to extend the DFT based studies. The frontier molecular orbitals (FMOs), UV-VIS and solvation model based studies remained unknown. Therefore, we intended to study the natural bond orbital, FMOs, UV-VIS, thermodynamic properties and medium influence on solvation energies, dipole moment, FTIR and FT-Raman using polarizable continuum model (PCM) and density-based solvation model (SMD). The electronic properties of molecule were calculated by M06-2X/6-31G (d,P) and B3LYP/6-31G (d,p) level of theories. The solvent influence on the geometric parameters, FT-IR and FT-Raman were studied by B3LYP /6-31G(d) method. A good correspondence is found between the optimized parameters and the reported X-ray data. Natural bond orbital reveals that the maximum stabilization energy reached up to 39.64kJ/mol which is responsible for extra stability of the molecule. In solvated 8-HQ, a significant medium effects on FT-IR and FT-Raman intensities is observed. The intensities enhanced from gas to solvent phase. The solvation free energies are found to be -28.710 and -39.456 kJ/mol in PCM and SMD models respectively. FMOs suggested that this molecule contain less hardness and larger softness values. These findings reveal that the molecule might be bioactive.
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| 5. |
- Usman, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Use of Gasoline, LPG and LPG-HHO Blend in SI Engine : A Comparative Performance for Emission Control and Sustainable Environment
- 2020
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Ingår i: Processes. - : MDPI. - 2227-9717. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rising global warming concerns and explosive degradation of the environment requires the mainstream utilization of alternative fuels, such as hydroxy gas (HHO) which presents itself as a viable substitute for extracting the benefits of hydrogen. Therefore, an experimental study of the performance and emission characteristics of alternative fuels in contrast to conventional gasoline was undertaken. For experimentation, a spark ignition engine was run on a multitude of fuels comprising of gasoline, Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and hybrid blend of HHO with LPG. The engine was operated at 60% open throttle with engine speed ranging from 1600 rpm to 3400 rpm. Simultaneously, the corresponding performance parameters including brake specific fuel consumption, brake power and brake thermal efficiency were investigated. Emission levels of CO, CO2, HC and NOx were quantified in the specified speed range. To check the suitability of the acquired experimental data, it was subjected to a Weibull distribution fit. Enhanced performance efficiency and reduced emissions were observed with the combustion of the hybrid mixture of LPG with HHO in comparison to LPG: on average, brake power increased by 7% while the brake specific fuel consumption reduced by 15%. On the other hand, emissions relative to LPG decreased by 21%, 9% and 21.8% in cases of CO, CO2, and unburned hydrocarbons respectively. Incorporating alternative fuels would not only imply reduced dependency on conventional fuels but would also contribute to their sustainability for future generations. Simultaneously, the decrease in harmful environmental pollutants would help to mitigate and combat the threats of climate change.
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| 6. |
- Farooq, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Thermodynamic Performance Analysis of Hydrofluoroolefins (HFO) Refrigerants in Commercial Air-Conditioning Systems for Sustainable Environment
- 2020
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Ingår i: Processes. - : MDPI. - 2227-9717. ; 8:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming is one of most severe environmental concerns that our planet is facing today. One of its causes is the previous generation of refrigerants that, upon release, remain in the atmosphere for longer periods and contribute towards global warming. This issue could potentially be solved by replacing the previous generation's high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants with environmentally friendly refrigerants. This scenario requires an analysis of new refrigerants for a comparison of the thermodynamic properties of the previously used refrigerants. In the present research, a numerical study was conducted to analyze the thermodynamic performance of specifically low GWP hydrofluoroolefens (HFO) refrigerants for an actual vapor compression refrigeration cycle (VCRC) with a constant degree of 3 K superheat. The output parameters included the refrigeration effect, compressor work input, the coefficient of performance (COP), and the volumetric refrigeration capacity (VRC), all of which were calculated by varying the condenser pressure from 6 to 12 bars and vapor pressure from 0.7 to 1.9 bars. Results showed that R1234ze(Z) clearly possessed the desired thermodynamic performance. The drop in refrigeration effect for R1234ze(Z) was merely 14.6% less than that of R134a at a 12 bar condenser pressure; this was minimum drop among candidate refrigerants. The drop in the COP was the minimum for R1234ze(Z)-5.1% less than that of R134a at a 9 bar condenser pressure and 4.7% less than that of R134a at a 1.9 bar evaporator pressure, whereas the COP values of the other refrigerants dropped more drastically at higher condenser pressures. R1234ze(Z) possessed favorable thermodynamic characteristics, with a GWP of 7, and it can serve as an alternative refrigerant for refrigeration systems for a sustainable environment.
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| 7. |
- Usman, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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A Blockchain based Scalable Domain Access Control Framework for Industrial Internet of Things
- 2024
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Ingår i: IEEE Access. - : IEEE. - 2169-3536.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) applications consist of resource constrained interconnected devices that make them vulnerable to data leak and integrity violation challenges. The mobility, dynamism, and complex structure of the network further make this issue more challenging. To control the information flow in such environments, access control is critical to make collaboration and communication safe. To deal with these challenges, recent studies employ attribute-based access control on top of blockchain technology. However, the attribute-based access control frameworks suffer due to high computational overhead. In this paper, we propose an improved role-based access control framework using hyperledger blockchain to deal with IIoT requirements with less computational overhead making the information control process more efficient and real-time. The proposed framework leverages a layered architecture of chaincodes to implement the improved access control framework that handles the permission delegation and conflict management to deal with the dynamism of the IIoT network. The system uses a Policy Contract, Device Contract, and Access Contract to manage the workflow of the whole access control process. Each chaincode in the proposed framework is isolated in terms of its responsibilities to make the design low coupled. The integration of improved access control with blockchain enables the proposed framework to provide a highly scalable solution, tamper-proof, and flexible to manage conflicting scenarios. The proposed system outperforms the recent studies significantly in computational overhead in extensive simulation results. To verify the scalability and efficiency, the proposed is evaluated against a large number of concurrent virtual clients in simulation and statistical analysis proves that the proposed system is promising for further research in this domain.
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| 8. |
- Usman, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Automatic Hybrid Access Control in SCADA-Enabled IIoT Networks Using Machine Learning
- 2023
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Ingår i: Sensors. - : MDPI. - 1424-8220. ; 23:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recent advancements in the Internet of Things have made it converge towards critical infrastructure automation, opening a new paradigm referred to as the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). In the IIoT, different connected devices can send huge amounts of data to other devices back and forth for a better decision-making process. In such use cases, the role of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) has been studied by many researchers in recent years for robust supervisory control management. Nevertheless, for better sustainability of these applications, reliable data exchange is crucial in this domain. To ensure the privacy and integrity of the data shared between the connected devices, access control can be used as the front-line security mechanism for these systems. However, the role engineering and assignment propagation in access control is still a tedious process as its manually performed by network administrators. In this study, we explored the potential of supervised machine learning to automate role engineering for fine-grained access control in Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) settings. We propose a mapping framework to employ a fine-tuned multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) and extreme learning machine (ELM) for role engineering in the SCADA-enabled IIoT environment to ensure privacy and user access rights to resources. For the application of machine learning, a thorough comparison between these two algorithms is also presented in terms of their effectiveness and performance. Extensive experiments demonstrated the significant performance of the proposed scheme, which is promising for future research to automate the role assignment in the IIoT domain.
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| 9. |
- Vasile, Massimiliano, et al.
(författare)
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The Suaineadh Project : a Stepping Stone Towards the Deployment of Large Flexible Structures in Space
- 2010
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 61<sup>st</sup> International Astronautical Congress. - : the International Astronautical Federation. ; , s. IAC-10-C3.4-
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Suaineadh project aims at testing the controlled deployment and stabilization of space web. The deployment system is based on a simple yet ingenious control of the centrifugal force that will pull each of the four daughters sections apart. The four daughters are attached onto the four corners of a square web, and will be released from their initial stowed configuration attached to a central hub. Enclosed in the central hub is a specifically designed spinning reaction wheel that controls the rotational speed with a closed loop control fed by measurements from an onboard inertial measurement sensor. Five other such sensors located within the web and central hub provide information on the surface curvature of the web, and progression of the deployment. Suaineadh is currently at an advanced stage of development: all the components are manufactured with the subsystems integrated and are presently awaiting full integration and testing. This paper will present the current status of the Suaineadh project and the results of the most recent set of tests. In particular, the paper will cover the overall mechanical design of the system, the electrical and sensor assemblies, the communication and power systems and the spinning wheel with its control system.
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| 10. |
- Abdullah, Gamil M. S., et al.
(författare)
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Boosting-based ensemble machine learning models for predicting unconfined compressive strength of geopolymer stabilized clayey soil
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Nature. - 2045-2322. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present research employs new boosting-based ensemble machine learning models i.e., gradient boosting (GB) and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) to predict the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of geopolymer stabilized clayey soil. The GB and AdaBoost models were developed and validated using 270 clayey soil samples stabilized with geopolymer, with ground-granulated blast-furnace slag and fly ash as source materials and sodium hydroxide solution as alkali activator. The database was randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets for model development and validation. Several performance metrics, including coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean squared error (MSE), were utilized to assess the accuracy and reliability of the developed models. The statistical results of this research showed that the GB and AdaBoost are reliable models based on the obtained values of R2 (= 0.980, 0.975), MAE (= 0.585, 0.655), RMSE (= 0.969, 1.088), and MSE (= 0.940, 1.185) for the testing dataset, respectively compared to the widely used artificial neural network, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, multivariable regression, and multi-gen genetic programming based models. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis result shows that ground-granulated blast-furnace slag content was the key parameter affecting the UCS.
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