| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Kariippanon, Katharina E., et al.
(författare)
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Levels and Correlates of Objectively Measured Sedentary Behavior in Young Children : SUNRISE Study Results from 19 Countries
- 2022
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Ingår i: Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise. - : Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins. - 0195-9131 .- 1530-0315. ; 54:7, s. 1123-1130
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose There is a paucity of global data on sedentary behavior during early childhood. The purpose of this study was to examine how device-measured sedentary behavior in young children differed across geographically, economically, and sociodemographically diverse populations, in an international sample. Methods This multinational, cross-sectional study included data from 1071 children 3-5 yr old from 19 countries, collected between 2018 and 2020 (pre-COVID). Sedentary behavior was measured for three consecutive days using activPAL accelerometers. Sedentary time, sedentary fragmentation, and seated transport duration were calculated. Linear mixed models were used to examine the differences in sedentary behavior variables between sex, country-level income groups, urban/rural settings, and population density. Results Children spent 56% (7.4 h) of their waking time sedentary. The longest average bout duration was 81.1 +/- 45.4 min, and an average of 61.1 +/- 50.1 min center dot d(-1) was spent in seated transport. Children from upper-middle-income and high-income countries spent a greater proportion of the day sedentary, accrued more sedentary bouts, had shorter breaks between sedentary bouts, and spent significantly more time in seated transport, compared with children from low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Sex and urban/rural residential setting were not associated with any outcomes. Higher population density was associated with several higher sedentary behavior measures. Conclusions These data advance our understanding of young childrens sedentary behavior patterns globally. Country income levels and population density appear to be stronger drivers of the observed differences, than sex or rural/urban residential setting.
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| 4. |
- Kim, Min Seo, et al.
(författare)
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Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier. - 2214-109X. ; 11:10, s. E1553-E1565
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.Methods: Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.Findings: In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 center dot 2-128 center dot 4), with a global prevalence of 1 center dot 52% (95% UI 1 center dot 33-1 center dot 72), of which 42 center dot 6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14 center dot 91% [12 center dot 41-17 center dot 87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69 center dot 4% (64 center dot 2-74 center dot 3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.Interpretation: The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.
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| 5. |
- Okely, Anthony D., et al.
(författare)
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Cross-sectional examination of 24-hour movement behaviours among 3-and 4-year-old children in urban and rural settings in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries : the SUNRISE study protocol
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 11:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction 24-hour movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep) during the early years are associated with health and developmental outcomes, prompting the WHO to develop Global guidelines for physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep for children under 5 years of age. Prevalence data on 24-hour movement behaviours is lacking, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). This paper describes the development of the SUNRISE International Study of Movement Behaviours in the Early Years protocol, designed to address this gap. Methods and analysis SUNRISE is the first international cross-sectional study that aims to determine the proportion of 3- and 4-year-old children who meet the WHO Global guidelines. The study will assess if proportions differ by gender, urban/rural location and/or socioeconomic status. Executive function, motor skills and adiposity will be assessed and potential correlates of 24-hour movement behaviours examined. Pilot research from 24 countries (14 LMICs) informed the study design and protocol. Data are collected locally by research staff from partnering institutions who are trained throughout the research process. Piloting of all measures to determine protocol acceptability and feasibility was interrupted by COVID-19 but is nearing completion. At the time of publication 41 countries are participating in the SUNRISE study. Ethics and dissemination The SUNRISE protocol has received ethics approved from the University of Wollongong, Australia, and in each country by the applicable ethics committees. Approval is also sought from any relevant government departments or organisations. The results will inform global efforts to prevent childhood obesity and ensure young children reach their health and developmental potential. Findings on the correlates of movement behaviours can guide future interventions to improve the movement behaviours in culturally specific ways. Study findings will be disseminated via publications, conference presentations and may contribute to the development of local guidelines and public health interventions.
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| 6. |
- von Seidlein, Lorenz, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of targeted malaria elimination with mass drug administrations on falciparum malaria in Southeast Asia: A cluster randomised trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 16:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threatens global malaria elimination efforts. Mass drug administration (MDA), the presumptive antimalarial treatment of an entire population to clear the subclinical parasite reservoir, is a strategy to accelerate malaria elimination. We report a cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) MDA in reducing falciparum malaria incidence and prevalence in 16 remote village populations in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, where artemisinin resistance is prevalent. Methods and findings After establishing vector control and community-based case management and following intensive community engagement, we used restricted randomisation within village pairs to select 8 villages to receive early DP MDA and 8 villages as controls for 12 months, after which the control villages received deferred DP MDA. The MDA comprised 3 monthly rounds of 3 daily doses of DP and, except in Cambodia, a single low dose of primaquine. We conducted exhaustive cross-sectional surveys of the entire population of each village at quarterly intervals using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR to detect Plasmodium infections. The study was conducted between May 2013 and July 2017. The investigators randomised 16 villages that had a total of 8,445 residents at the start of the study. Of these 8,445 residents, 4,135 (49%) residents living in 8 villages, plus an additional 288 newcomers to the villages, were randomised to receive early MDA; 3,790 out of the 4,423 (86%) participated in at least 1 MDA round, and 2,520 out of the 4,423 (57%) participated in all 3 rounds. The primary outcome, P. falciparum prevalence by month 3 (M3), fell by 92% (from 5.1% [171/3,340] to 0.4% [12/2,828]) in early MDA villages and by 29% (from 7.2% [246/3,405] to 5.1% [155/3,057]) in control villages. Over the following 9 months, the P. falciparum prevalence increased to 3.3% (96/2,881) in early MDA villages and to 6.1% (128/2,101) in control villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.41 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.84]; p = 0.015). Individual protection was proportional to the number of completed MDA rounds. Of 221 participants with subclinical P. falciparum infections who participated in MDA and could be followed up, 207 (94%) cleared their infections, including 9 of 10 with artemisinin-and piperaquine- resistant infections. The DP MDAs were well tolerated; 6 severe adverse events were detected during the follow-up period, but none was attributable to the intervention. Conclusions Added to community-based basic malaria control measures, 3 monthly rounds of DP MDA reduced the incidence and prevalence of falciparum malaria over a 1-year period in areas affected by artemisinin resistance. P. falciparum infections returned during the follow-up period as the remaining infections spread and malaria was reintroduced from surrounding areas. Limitations of this study include a relatively small sample of villages, heterogeneity between villages, and mobility of villagers that may have limited the impact of the intervention. These results suggest that, if used as part of a comprehensive, well-organised, and well-resourced elimination programme, DP MDA can be a useful additional tool to accelerate malaria elimination.
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| 7. |
- Nguyen, Thanh N, et al.
(författare)
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Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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| 8. |
- Okely, Anthony D., et al.
(författare)
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Global effect of COVID-19 pandemic on physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep among 3-to 5-year-old children : a longitudinal study of 14 countries
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : BMC. - 1471-2458. ; 21:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe restrictions associated with the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in changes to young childrens daily routines and habits. The impact on their participation in movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary screen time and sleep) is unknown. This international longitudinal study compared young childrens movement behaviours before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsParents of children aged 3-5years, from 14 countries (8 low- and middle-income countries, LMICs) completed surveys to assess changes in movement behaviours and how these changes were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Surveys were completed in the 12months up to March 2020 and again between May and June 2020 (at the height of restrictions). Physical activity (PA), sedentary screen time (SST) and sleep were assessed via parent survey. At Time 2, COVID-19 factors including level of restriction, environmental conditions, and parental stress were measured. Compliance with the World Health Organizations (WHO) Global guidelines for PA (180min/day [>= 60min moderate- vigorous PA]), SST (<= 1h/day) and sleep (10-13h/day) for children under 5years of age, was determined.ResultsNine hundred- forty-eight parents completed the survey at both time points. Children from LMICs were more likely to meet the PA (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AdjOR]=2.0, 95%Confidence Interval [CI] 1.0,3.8) and SST (AdjOR=2.2, 95%CI 1.2,3.9) guidelines than their high-income country (HIC) counterparts. Children who could go outside during COVID-19 were more likely to meet all WHO Global guidelines (AdjOR=3.3, 95%CI 1.1,9.8) than those who were not. Children of parents with higher compared to lower stress were less likely to meet all three guidelines (AdjOR=0.5, 95%CI 0.3,0.9).ConclusionPA and SST levels of children from LMICs have been less impacted by COVID-19 than in HICs. Ensuring children can access an outdoor space, and supporting parents mental health are important prerequisites for enabling pre-schoolers to practice healthy movement behaviours and meet the Global guidelines.
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| 9. |
- Quyen, Vu Thi, et al.
(författare)
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Enhanced recovery of phosphate as a value-added product from wastewater by using lanthanum modified carbon-fiber
- 2021
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Ingår i: Chemosphere. - : Elsevier. - 0045-6535 .- 1879-1298. ; 281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study is to present the potential of activated carbon fiber (CF) impregnated with lanthanum (La) as a novel adsorbent (La-CF) of phosphate-phosphorus (P) and to assess the value-added due to P-recovery from wastewater using La-CF. The CF were loaded with La and the loaded CF was then calcined at 500 degrees C. The La-CF adsorbent was used in a series of batch experiments to characterize the adsorption of P at pH of 6-10 and P concentrations of 1-200 mg/L. Physical-chemical properties such as surface morphology, surface charge, surface area, and surface chemistry were determined for the La-CF. The La-CF exhibited adsorption capacity of 196.5 mg/g, fast sorption kinetics and high selectivity for P removal from aqueous solution. La-CF removed 97.3% of P from wastewater and achieved P-level to below 2 mg/L. It was repetitively reused over 10 times in successive cycles to remove P from wastewater. The value-added by recovery of P from wastewater was calculated at around 0.12 US$/L, demonstrating economic benefits of La-CF. In conclusion, the successful removal, recycling, and recovery value-added of P using La-CF adsorbent displayed good potential for developing the technology for treatment of wastewaters to recover valuable compounds such as phosphorus.
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| 10. |
- Settele, Josef, et al.
(författare)
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Rice ecosystem services in South-east Asia
- 2018
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Ingår i: Paddy and Water Environment. - : Springer. - 1611-2490 .- 1611-2504. ; 16:2, s. 211-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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