| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Moser, K. A., et al.
(författare)
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Describing the current status of Plasmodium falciparum population structure and drug resistance within mainland Tanzania using molecular inversion probes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Molecular Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0962-1083 .- 1365-294X. ; 30:1, s. 100-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-throughput Plasmodium genomic data is increasingly useful in assessing prevalence of clinically important mutations and malaria transmission patterns. Understanding parasite diversity is important for identification of specific human or parasite populations that can be targeted by control programmes, and to monitor the spread of mutations associated with drug resistance. An up-to-date understanding of regional parasite population dynamics is also critical to monitor the impact of control efforts. However, this data is largely absent from high-burden nations in Africa, and to date, no such analysis has been conducted for malaria parasites in Tanzania countrywide. To this end, over 1,000 P. falciparum clinical isolates were collected in 2017 from 13 sites in seven administrative regions across Tanzania, and parasites were genotyped at 1,800 variable positions genome-wide using molecular inversion probes. Population structure was detectable among Tanzanian P. falciparum parasites, approximately separating parasites from the northern and southern districts and identifying genetically admixed populations in the north. Isolates from nearby districts were more likely to be genetically related compared to parasites sampled from more distant districts. Known drug resistance mutations were seen at increased frequency in northern districts (including two infections carrying pfk13-R561H), and additional variants with undetermined significance for antimalarial resistance also varied by geography. Malaria Indicator Survey (2017) data corresponded with genetic findings, including average region-level complexity-of-infection and malaria prevalence estimates. The parasite populations identified here provide important information on extant spatial patterns of genetic diversity of Tanzanian parasites, to which future surveys of genetic relatedness can be compared. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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| 3. |
- Berner, Logan T., et al.
(författare)
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The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Nature. - 2052-4463. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m−2) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic.
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| 4. |
- Rainsley, Eleanor, et al.
(författare)
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Pleistocene glacial history of the New Zealand subantarctic islands
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 423-448
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The New Zealand subantarctic islands of Auckland and Campbell, situated between the subtropical front and the Antarctic Convergence in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, provide valuable terrestrial records from a globally important climatic region. Whilst the islands show clear evidence of past glaciation, the timing and mechanisms behind Pleistocene environmental and climate changes remain uncertain. Here we present a multidisciplinary study of the islands-including marine and terrestrial geomorphological surveys, extensive analyses of sedimentary sequences, a comprehensive dating programme, and glacier flow line modelling-to investigate multiple phases of glaciation across the islands. We find evidence that the Auckland Islands hosted a small ice cap 384 000 +/- 26 000 years ago (384 +/- 26 ka), most likely during Marine Isotope Stage 10, a period when the subtropical front was reportedly north of its present-day latitude by several degrees, and consistent with hemispheric-wide glacial expansion. Flow line modelling constrained by field evidence suggests a more restricted glacial period prior to the LGM that formed substantial valley glaciers on the Campbell and Auckland Islands around 72-62 ka. Despite previous interpretations that suggest the maximum glacial extent occurred in the form of valley glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; similar to 21 ka), our combined approach suggests minimal LGM glaciation across the New Zealand subantarctic islands and that no glaciers were present during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; similar to 15-13 ka). Instead, modelling implies that despite a regional mean annual air temperature depression of similar to 5 degrees C during the LGM, a combination of high seasonality and low precipitation left the islands incapable of sustaining significant glaciation. We suggest that northwards expansion of winter sea ice during the LGM and subsequent ACR led to precipitation starvation across the middle to high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, resulting in restricted glaciation of the subantarctic islands.
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| 5. |
- Connelly, SV, et al.
(författare)
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Strong isolation by distance and evidence of population microstructure reflect ongoing Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Zanzibar
- 2024
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Ingår i: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. - : Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area forPlasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania, and continued local transmission. To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 391P. falciparumisolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo District on the coastal mainland from 2016-2018. Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, in Zanzibar the parasite population exhibits microstructure due to rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs withinshehias, suggests ongoing low level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites acrossshehiasthat reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Our data support that importation remains a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population on Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive for malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.
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| 6. |
- Connelly, Sean, V, et al.
(författare)
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Strong isolation by distance and evidence of population microstructure reflect ongoing Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Zanzibar
- 2024
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania and continued local transmission. Methods: To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo district on the coastal mainland from 2016 to 2018. Results: Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to the rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low-level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Conclusions: Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population in Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive to malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.
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| 7. |
- Kropp, Heather, et al.
(författare)
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Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Volz, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier BV. - 1097-4172 .- 0092-8674. ; 184:1, s. 11-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.
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