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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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- Botella, Pablo, PhD Student, et al.
(författare)
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High-pressure characterization of multifunctional CrVO4
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 0953-8984 .- 1361-648X. ; 32:38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The structural stability and physical properties of CrVO4 under compression were studied by X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, optical absorption, resistivity measurements, and ab initio calculations up to 10 GPa. High-pressure X-ray diffraction and Raman measurements show that CrVO4 undergoes a phase transition from the ambient pressure orthorhombic CrVO4-type structure (Cmcm space group, phase III) to the high-pressure monoclinic CrVO4-V phase, which is isomorphic to the wolframite structure. Such a phase transition (CrVO4-type → wolframite), driven by pressure, also was previously observed in indium vanadate. The crystal structure of both phases and the pressure dependence in unit-cell parameters, Raman-active modes, resistivity, and electronic band gap, is reported. Vanadium atoms are sixth-fold coordinated in the wolframite phase, which is related to the collapse in the volume at the phase transition. Besides, we also observed drastic changes in the phonon spectrum, a drop of the band-gap, and a sharp decrease of resistivity. All the observed phenomena are explained with the help of first-principles calculations.
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