| 1. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
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swepub:Mat__t (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 3. |
- Reynolds, C. A., et al.
(författare)
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Sortilin receptor 1 predicts longitudinal cognitive change
- 2013
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Ingår i: Neurobiology of Aging. - : Elsevier BV. - 0197-4580 .- 1558-1497. ; 34:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gene encoding sortilin receptor 1 (SORL1) has been associated with Alzheimer's disease risk. We examined 15 SORL1 variants and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) set risk scores in relation to longitudinal verbal, spatial, memory, and perceptual speed performance, testing for age trends and sex-specific effects. Altogether, 1609 individuals from 3 population-based Swedish twin studies were assessed up to 5 times across 16 years. Controlling for apolipoprotein E genotype (APOE), multiple simple and sex-moderated associations were observed for spatial, episodic memory, and verbal trajectories (p = 1.25E-03 to p = 4.83E-02). Five variants (rs11600875, rs753780, rs7105365, rs11820794, rs2070045) were associated across domains. Notably, in those homozygous for the rs2070045 risk allele, men demonstrated initially favorable performance but accelerating declines, and women showed overall lower performance. SNP set risk scores predicted spatial (Card Rotations, p = 5.92E-03) and episodic memory trajectories (Thurstone Picture Memory, p = 3.34E-02), where higher risk scores benefited men's versus women's performance up to age 75 but with accelerating declines. SORL1 is associated with cognitive aging, and might contribute differentially to change in men and women.
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| 4. |
- Brumpton, B, et al.
(författare)
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Avoiding dynastic, assortative mating, and population stratification biases in Mendelian randomization through within-family analyses
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1, s. 3519-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estimates from Mendelian randomization studies of unrelated individuals can be biased due to uncontrolled confounding from familial effects. Here we describe methods for within-family Mendelian randomization analyses and use simulation studies to show that family-based analyses can reduce such biases. We illustrate empirically how familial effects can affect estimates using data from 61,008 siblings from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study and UK Biobank and replicated our findings using 222,368 siblings from 23andMe. Both Mendelian randomization estimates using unrelated individuals and within family methods reproduced established effects of lower BMI reducing risk of diabetes and high blood pressure. However, while Mendelian randomization estimates from samples of unrelated individuals suggested that taller height and lower BMI increase educational attainment, these effects were strongly attenuated in within-family Mendelian randomization analyses. Our findings indicate the necessity of controlling for population structure and familial effects in Mendelian randomization studies.
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