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- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Levy, G., et al.
(författare)
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12-month follow-up analysis of a multicenter, randomized, prospective trial in de novo liver transplant recipients (LIS2T) comparing cyclosporine microemulsion (C2 monitoring) and tacrolimus
- 2006
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Ingår i: Liver transplantation. - 1527-6465. ; 12:10, s. 1464-72
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The LIS2T study was an open-label, multicenter study in which recipients of a primary liver transplant were randomized to cyclosporine microemulsion (CsA-ME) (Neoral) (n = 250) (monitoring of blood concentration at 2 hours postdose) C2 or tacrolimus (n = 245) (monitoring of trough drug blood level [predose]) C0 to compare efficacy and safety at 3 and 6 months and to evaluate patient status at 12 months. All patients received steroids with or without azathioprine. At 12 months, 85% of CsA-ME patients and 86% of tacrolimus patients survived with a functioning graft (P not significant). Efficacy was similar in deceased- and living-donor recipients. Significantly fewer hepatitis C-positive patients died or lost their graft by 12 months with CsA-ME (5/88, 6%) than with tacrolimus (14/85, 16%) (P < 0.03). Recurrence of hepatitis C virus in liver grafts was similar in each group. Based on biopsies driven by clinical events, the mean time to histological diagnosis of hepatitis C virus recurrence was significantly longer with CsA-ME (100 +/- 50 days) than with tacrolimus (70 +/- 40 days) (P < 0.05). Median serum creatinine at 12 months was 106 mumol/L with CsA-ME and with tacrolimus. More patients who were nondiabetic at baseline received antihyperglycemic therapy in the tacrolimus group at 12 months (13% vs. 5%, P < 0.01). Of patients who were diabetic at baseline, more tacrolimus-treated individuals required anti-diabetic treatment at 12 months (70% vs. 49%, P = 0.02). Treatment for de novo or preexisting hypertension or hyperlipidemia was similar in both groups. In conclusion, the efficacy of CsA-ME monitored by blood concentration at 2 hours postdose and tacrolimus in liver transplant patients is equivalent to 12 months, and renal function is similar. More patients required antidiabetic therapy with tacrolimus regardless of diabetic status at baseline.
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