| 1. |
- Buhaug, Halvard, et al.
(författare)
-
A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Journal of Politics. - : University of Chicago Press. - 0022-3816 .- 1468-2508. ; 83:1, s. 354-366
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Common political economy models point to rationalist motives for engaging in conflict but say little about how income shocks translate into collective violence in some cases but not in others. Grievance models, in contrast, focus on structural origins of shared frustration but offer less insight into when the deprived decide to challenge the status quo. Addressing these lacunae, we develop a theoretical model of civil conflict that predicts income loss to trigger violent mobilization primarily when the shock can be linked to pre-existing collective grievances. The conditional argument is supported by results of a comprehensive global statistical analysis of conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Consistent with theory, we find that this relationship is most powerful among recently downgraded groups, especially in the context of agricultural dependence and low local level of development, whereas political downgrading in the absence of adverse economic changes exerts less influence on ethnic conflict risk.
|
|
| 2. |
- Buhaug, H., et al.
(författare)
-
One effect to rule them all? : A comment on climate and conflict
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Climatic Change. - Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 127:3-4, s. 391-397
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article's underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.
|
|
| 3. |
- Buhaug, Halvard, et al.
(författare)
-
Vicious Circles : Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Annual Review Environment and Resources. - : Annual Reviews. - 1543-5938 .- 1545-2050. ; 46, s. 545-568
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: (a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, (b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and (c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate?conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts.
|
|
| 4. |
- de Bruin, Sophie P., et al.
(författare)
-
Projecting long-term armed conflict risk : An underappreciated field of inquiry?
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 72
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.
|
|
| 5. |
- Dellmuth, Lisa Maria, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
-
Humanitarian need drives multilateral disaster aid
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 118:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the climate changes, human livelihoods will increasingly be threatened by extreme weather events. To provide adequate disaster relief, states extensively rely on multilateral institutions, in particular the United Nations (UN). However, the determinants of this multilateral disaster aid channeled through the UN are poorly understood. To fill this gap, we examine the determinants of UN disaster aid using a dataset on UN aid covering almost 2,000 climate-related disasters occurring between 2006 and 2017. We make two principal contributions. First, we add to research on disaster impacts by linking existing disaster data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to a meteorological reanalysis. We generate a uniquely global hazard severity measure that is comparable across different climate-related disaster types, and assess and bolster measurement validity of EM-DAT climate-related disasters. Second, by combining these data with social data on aid and its correlates, we contribute to the literature on aid disbursements. We show that UN disaster aid is primarily shaped by humanitarian considerations, rather than by strategic donor interests. These results are supported by a series of regression and out-of-sample prediction analyses and appear consistent with the view that multilateral institutions are able to shield aid allocation decisions from particular state interests to ensure that aid is motivated by need.
|
|
| 6. |
- Fjelde, Hanne, et al.
(författare)
-
Climate triggers : Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Political Geography. - : Elsevier BV. - 0962-6298 .- 1873-5096. ; 31:7, s. 444-453
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mounting evidence for climate change has put the security implications of increased climate variability high on the agenda of policymakers. However, several years of research have produced no consensus regarding whether climate variability increases the risk of armed conflict. Many have suggested that instead of outright civil war, climate variability is likely to heighten the risk of communal conflict. In particular, erratic rainfall, which reduces the availability of water and arable land, could create incentives for violent attacks against other communities to secure access to scarce resources. Yet, whether groups resort to violence in the face of environmentally induced hardship is likely to depend on the availability of alternative coping mechanisms, for example through market transfers or state accommodation. This suggests that the effect of rainfall anomalies on communal conflict will be stronger in the presence of economic and political marginalization. We evaluate these arguments statistically, utilizing a disaggregated dataset combining rainfall data with geo-referenced events data on the occurrence of communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2008. Our results suggest that large negative deviations in rainfall from the historical norm are associated with a higher risk of communal conflict. There is some evidence that the effect of rainfall shortages on the risk of communal conflict is amplified in regions inhabited by politically excluded ethno-political groups.
|
|
| 7. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:20
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted in 2015 integrate diverse issues such as addressing hunger, gender equality and clean energy and set a common agenda for all United Nations member states until 2030. The 17 SDGs interact and by working towards achieving one goal countries may further—or jeopardise—progress on others. However, the direction and strength of these interactions are still poorly understood and it remains an analytical challenge to capture the relationships between the multi-dimensional goals, comprising 169 targets and over 200 indicators. Here, we use principal component analysis (PCA), an in this context novel approach, to summarise each goal and interactions in the global SDG agenda. Applying PCA allows us to map trends, synergies and trade-offs at the level of goals for all SDGs while using all available information on indicators. While our approach does not allow us to investigate causal relationships, it provides important evidence of the degree of compatibility of goal attainment over time. Based on global data 2000–2016, our results indicate that synergies between and within the SDGs prevail, both in terms of levels and over time change. An exception is SDG 10 ‘Reducing inequalities’ which has not progressed in tandem with other goals.
|
|
| 8. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-3433 .- 1460-3578. ; 56:2, s. 155-174
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.
|
|
| 9. |
- Hendrix, Cullen S., et al.
(författare)
-
Climate change and conflict
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. - : Springer Nature. - 2662-138X. ; 4:3, s. 144-148
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Connections between climate and conflict have been the centre of critical debate and discussion. In this Viewpoint, five researchers provide their thoughts and opinions on the topic, outlining the types of conflict that can be linked to climate variability, and how these relationships might evolve with ongoing climate change.
|
|
| 10. |
- Hoch, Jannis M, et al.
(författare)
-
Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios : a machine learning approach
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1748-9326. ; 16:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the past decade, several efforts have been made to project armed conflict risk into the future. This study broadens current approaches by presenting a first-of-its-kind application of machine learning (ML) methods to project sub-national armed conflict risk over the African continent along three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and three Representative Concentration Pathways towards 2050. Results of the open-source ML framework CoPro are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic storylines of the SSPs, and the resulting out-of-sample armed conflict projections obtained with Random Forest classifiers agree with the patterns observed in comparable studies. In SSP1-RCP2.6, conflict risk is low in most regions although the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa continue to be conflict-prone. Conflict risk increases in the more adverse SSP3-RCP6.0 scenario, especially in Central Africa and large parts of Western Africa. We specifically assessed the role of hydro-climatic indicators as drivers of armed conflict. Overall, their importance is limited compared to main conflict predictors but results suggest that changing climatic conditions may both increase and decrease conflict risk, depending on the location: in Northern Africa and large parts of Eastern Africa climate change increases projected conflict risk whereas for areas in the West and northern part of the Sahel shifting climatic conditions may reduce conflict risk. With our study being at the forefront of ML applications for conflict risk projections, we identify various challenges for this arising scientific field. A major concern is the limited selection of relevant quantified indicators for the SSPs at present. Nevertheless, ML models such as the one presented here are a viable and scalable way forward in the field of armed conflict risk projections, and can help to inform the policy-making process with respect to climate security.
|
|
