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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Posthuma, R., et al.
(författare)
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Implementation of Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction Using One-Way Endobronchial Valves: A Retrospective Single-Centre Cohort Study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Respiration. - : S. Karger AG. - 0025-7931 .- 1423-0356. ; 101:5, s. 476-484
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (BLVR) using 1-way endobronchial valves (EBV) has become a guideline treatment in patients with advanced emphysema. Evidence from this minimally invasive treatment derives mainly from well-designed controlled trials conducted in high-volume specialized intervention centres. Little is known about real-life outcome data in hospitals setting up this novel treatment and which favourable conditions are required for a continuous successful program. Objectives: In this study, we aim to evaluate the eligibility rate for BLVR and whether the implementation of BLVR in our academic hospital is feasible and yields clinically significant outcomes. Method: A retrospective evaluation of patients treated with EBV between January 2016 and August 2019 was conducted. COPD assessment test (CAT), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), residual volume (RV), and 6-min walking test (6MWT) were measured at baseline and 3 months after intervention. Paired sample t tests were performed to compare means before and after intervention. Results: Of 350 subjects screened, 283 (81%) were not suitable for intervention mostly due to lack of a target lobe. The remaining 67 subjects (19%) underwent bronchoscopic assessment, and if suitable, valves were placed in the same session. In total, 55 subjects (16%) were treated with EBV of which 10 did not have complete follow-up: 6 subjects had their valves removed because of severe pneumothorax (n = 2) or lack of benefit (n = 4) and the remaining 4 had missing follow-up data. Finally, 45 patients had complete follow-up at 3 months and showed an average change +/- SD in CAT -4 +/- 6 points, FEV1 +190 +/- 140 mL, RV -770 +/- 790 mL, and +37 +/- 65 m on the 6MWT (all p < 0.001). After 1-year follow-up, 34 (76%) subjects had their EBV in situ. Conclusion: Implementing BLVR with EBV is feasible and effective. Only 16% of screened patients were eligible, indicating that this intervention is only applicable in a small subset of highly selected subjects with advanced emphysema, and therefore a high volume of COPD patients is essential for a sustainable BLVR program.
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- Gietema, H. A., et al.
(författare)
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Dual-Energy Computed Tomography Compared to Lung Perfusion Scintigraphy to Assess Pulmonary Perfusion in Patients Screened for Endoscopic Lung Volume Reduction
- 2021
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Ingår i: Respiration. - : S. Karger AG. - 0025-7931 .- 1423-0356.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Endoscopic lung volume reduction (ELVR) using one-way endobronchial valves is a technique to reduce hyperinflation in patients with severe emphysema by inducing collapse of a severely destroyed pulmonary lobe. Patient selection is mainly based on evaluation of emphysema severity on high-resolution computed tomography and evaluation of lung perfusion with perfusion scintigraphy. Dual-energy contrast-enhanced CT scans may be useful for perfusion assessment in emphysema but has not been compared against perfusion scintigraphy. Aims: The aim of the study was to compare perfusion distribution assessed with dual-energy contrast-enhanced computed tomography and perfusion scintigraphy. Material and Methods: Forty consecutive patients with severe emphysema, who were screened for ELVR, were included. Perfusion was assessed with 99mTc perfusion scintigraphy and using the iodine map calculated from the dual-energy contrast-enhanced CT scans. Perfusion distribution was calculated as usually for the upper, middle, and lower thirds of both lungs with the planar technique and the iodine overlay. Results: Perfusion distribution between the right and left lung showed good correlation (r = 0.8). The limits of agreement of the mean absolute difference in percentage perfusion per region of interest were 0.75-5.6%. The upper lobes showed more severe perfusion reduction than the lower lobes. Mean difference in measured pulmonary perfusion ranged from -2.8% to 2.3%. Lower limit of agreement ranged from -8.9% to 4.6% and upper limit was 3.3-10.0%. Conclusion: Quantification of perfusion distribution using planar 99mTc perfusion scintigraphy and iodine overlays calculated from dual-energy contrast-enhanced CTs correlates well with acceptable variability.
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