| 1. |
- Dangendorf, Soenke, et al.
(författare)
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North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 27:10, s. 3582-3595
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region.
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| 2. |
- Merz, Bruno, et al.
(författare)
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Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
- 2020
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Ingår i: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 58:4
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.
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| 3. |
- Semedo, Alvaro, et al.
(författare)
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Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 26:21, s. 8269-8288
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the middle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.
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| 4. |
- Wu, Lichuan
(författare)
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Impact of surface gravity waves on air-sea fluxes and upper-ocean mixing
- 2016
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Surface gravity waves play a vital role in the air-sea interaction. They can alter the turbulence ofthe bottom atmospheric layer as well as the upper-ocean layer. Accordingly, they can affect themomentum flux, heat fluxes, as well as the upper-ocean mixing. In most numerical models, waveinfluences are not considered or not fully considered. The wave influences on the atmosphereand the ocean are important for weather forecasts and climate studies. Here, different aspects ofwave impact on the atmosphere and the ocean are introduced into numerical models.In the first study, a wave-state-dependent sea spray generation function and Charnock co-efficient were applied to a wind stress parameterization under high wind speeds. The newlyproposed wind stress parameterization and a sea spray influenced heat flux parameterizationwere applied to an atmosphere-wave coupled model to study their influence on the simulationof mid-latitude storms. The new wind stress parameterization reduces wind speed simulationerror during high wind speed ranges and intensifies the storms. Adding the sea spray impacton heat fluxes improves the model performance concerning the air temperature. Adding the seaspray impact both on the wind stress and heat fluxes results in best model performance in allexperiments for wind speed, and air temperature.In the second study, the influence of surface waves on upper-ocean mixing was parameter-ized into a 1D k − ε ocean turbulence model though four processes (wave breaking, Stokes driftinteraction with the Coriolis force, Langmuir circulation, and stirring by non-breaking waves)based mainly on existing investigations. Considering all the effects of surface gravity waves,rather than just one effect, significantly improves model performance. The non-breaking-wave-induced mixing and Langmuir turbulence are the most important terms when considering theimpact of waves on upper-ocean mixing. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that vertical pro-files of the Stokes drift calculated from 2D wave spectrum improve the model performancesignificantly compared with other methods of calculating the vertical profiles of the Stokes drift.Introducing the wave influences in modelling systems, the results verified against measure-ments. Concluding from these studies for the further model development, the wave influencesshould be taken into account to improve the model performance.
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