| 1. |
- Liemohn, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
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Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions
- 2018
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - 1542-7390. ; 16:12, s. 2079-2102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.
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| 2. |
- Salojarvi, Jarkko, et al.
(författare)
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Genome sequencing and population genomic analyses provide insights into the adaptive landscape of silver birch
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 49:6, s. 904-912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Silver birch (Betula pendula) is a pioneer boreal tree that can be induced to flower within 1 year. Its rapid life cycle, small (440-Mb) genome, and advanced germplasm resources make birch an attractive model for forest biotechnology. We assembled and chromosomally anchored the nuclear genome of an inbred B. pendula individual. Gene duplicates from the paleohexaploid event were enriched for transcriptional regulation, whereas tandem duplicates were overrepresented by environmental responses. Population resequencing of 80 individuals showed effective population size crashes at major points of climatic upheaval. Selective sweeps were enriched among polyploid duplicates encoding key developmental and physiological triggering functions, suggesting that local adaptation has tuned the timing of and cross-talk between fundamental plant processes. Variation around the tightly-linked light response genes PHYC and FRS10 correlated with latitude and longitude and temperature, and with precipitation for PHYC. Similar associations characterized the growth-promoting cytokinin response regulator ARR1, and the wood development genes KAK and MED5A.
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| 3. |
- Vandegriff, Erik M., et al.
(författare)
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Exploring Localized Geomagnetic Disturbances in Global MHD : Physics and Numerics
- 2024
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1542-7390. ; 22:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the prominent effects of space weather is the formation of rapid geomagnetic field variations on Earth's surface driven by the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) cause geomagnetically induced currents to run through ground conducting systems. In particular, localized GMDs (LGMDs) can be high amplitude and can have an effect on scale sizes less than 100 km, making them hazardous to power grids and difficult to predict. In this study, we examine the ability of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to reproduce LGMDs in the 7 September 2017 event using both existing and new metrics to quantify the success of the model against observation. We show that the high-resolution SWMF can reproduce LGMDs driven by ionospheric sources, but struggles to reproduce LGMDs driven by substorm effects. We calculate the global maxima of the magnetic fluctuations to show instances when the SWMF captures LGMDs at the correct times but not the correct locations. To remedy these shortcomings we suggest model developments that will directly impact the ability of the SWMF to reproduce LGMDs, most importantly updating the ionospheric conductance calculation from empirical to physics-based. Studying the negative effects of space weather on Earth is a crucial part of protecting ourselves and our technology from solar phenomena. Fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field cause high-amplitude currents to run through ground conducting systems such as underwater cables and power lines, causing damage to the hardware. Being able to predict these magnetic field fluctuations is essential to protecting ourselves and our technology; however these effects can be highly localized, making them more difficult to predict. This study presents an analysis of a high-resolution model run of Earth's magnetic field that captures localized magnetic fluctuations on the ground. We use the model results to explore the causes of these fluctuations in the model and compare the results with observation. We show that the model can reproduce magnetic fluctuations associated with some dynamics in Earth's ionosphere, but misses some of the fluctuations caused by complex dynamics farther out in Earth's magnetic field. We also show that in some cases the model captures fluctuations at the correct times but not the correct locations. Finally we suggest model improvements that will directly improve our model's ability to reproduce and predict localized magnetic fluctuations. High resolution Space Weather Modeling Framework can reproduce Localized Geomagnetic Disturbances (localized geomagnetic disturbances s (LGMDs)) driven by ionospheric sources Magnetospheric disturbances associated with substorms appear in model, but effects do not translate to LGMDs on the ground Improvements to calculation of ionospheric conductance and capture of substorm dynamics in model needed to better predict LGMDs
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| 4. |
- Welling, Daniel T., et al.
(författare)
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The Earth : Plasma Sources, Losses, and Transport Processes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Space Science Reviews. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0038-6308 .- 1572-9672. ; 192:1-4, s. 145-208
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper reviews the state of knowledge concerning the source of magnetospheric plasma at Earth. Source of plasma, its acceleration and transport throughout the system, its consequences on system dynamics, and its loss are all discussed. Both observational and modeling advances since the last time this subject was covered in detail (Hultqvist et al., Magnetospheric Plasma Sources and Losses, 1999) are addressed.
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