| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 3. |
- Stephens, Lucas, et al.
(author)
-
Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use
- 2019
-
In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 365:6456, s. 897-902
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humans began to leave lasting impacts on Earth’s surface starting 10,000 to 8000 years ago. Through a synthetic collaboration with archaeologists around the globe, Stephens et al. compiled a comprehensive picture of the trajectory of human land use worldwide during the Holocene (see the Perspective by Roberts). Hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists transformed the face of Earth earlier and to a greater extent than has been widely appreciated, a transformation that was essentially global by 3000 years before the present.Science, this issue p. 897; see also p. 865Environmentally transformative human use of land accelerated with the emergence of agriculture, but the extent, trajectory, and implications of these early changes are not well understood. An empirical global assessment of land use from 10,000 years before the present (yr B.P.) to 1850 CE reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists by 3000 years ago, considerably earlier than the dates in the land-use reconstructions commonly used by Earth scientists. Synthesis of knowledge contributed by more than 250 archaeologists highlighted gaps in archaeological expertise and data quality, which peaked for 2000 yr B.P. and in traditionally studied and wealthier regions. Archaeological reconstruction of global land-use history illuminates the deep roots of Earth’s transformation and challenges the emerging Anthropocene paradigm that large-scale anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly a recent phenomenon.
|
|
| 4. |
- Law, Philip J., et al.
(author)
-
Association analyses identify 31 new risk loci for colorectal cancer susceptibility
- 2019
-
In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and has a strong heritable basis. We report a genome-wide association analysis of 34,627 CRC cases and 71,379 controls of European ancestry that identifies SNPs at 31 new CRC risk loci. We also identify eight independent risk SNPs at the new and previously reported European CRC loci, and a further nine CRC SNPs at loci previously only identified in Asian populations. We use in situ promoter capture Hi-C (CHi-C), gene expression, and in silico annotation methods to identify likely target genes of CRC SNPs. Whilst these new SNP associations implicate target genes that are enriched for known CRC pathways such as Wnt and BMP, they also highlight novel pathways with no prior links to colorectal tumourigenesis. These findings provide further insight into CRC susceptibility and enhance the prospects of applying genetic risk scores to personalised screening and prevention.
|
|
| 5. |
- Prudencio, Mercedes, et al.
(author)
-
Toward allele-specific targeting therapy and pharmacodynamic marker for spinocerebellar ataxia type 3
- 2020
-
In: Science Translational Medicine. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1946-6242 .- 1946-6234. ; 12:566
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 (SCA3), caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the ataxin-3 gene (ATXN3), is characterized by neuronal polyglutamine (polyQ) ATXN3 protein aggregates. Although there is no cure for SCA3, gene-silencing approaches to reduce toxic polyQ ATXN3 showed promise in preclinical models. However, a major limitation in translating putative treatments for this rare disease to the clinic is the lack of pharmacodynamic markers for use in clinical trials. Here, we developed an immunoassay that readily detects polyQ ATXN3 proteins in human biological fluids and discriminates patients with SCA3 from healthy controls and individuals with other ataxias. We show that polyQ ATXN3 serves as a marker of target engagement in human fibroblasts, which may bode well for its use in clinical trials. Last, we identified a single-nucleotide polymorphism that strongly associates with the expanded allele, thus providing an exciting drug target to abrogate detrimental events initiated by mutant ATXN3. Gene-silencing strategies for several repeat diseases are well under way, and our results are expected to improve clinical trial preparedness for SCA3 therapies.
|
|
| 6. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 7. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
-
- 2020
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)
|
|
| 8. |
- Abarr, Q., et al.
(author)
-
Performance of the X-Calibur hard X-ray polarimetry mission during its 2018/19 long-duration balloon flight
- 2022
-
In: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 143, s. 102749-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- X-Calibur is a balloon-borne telescope that measures the polarization of high-energy X-rays in the 15-50 keV energy range. The instrument makes use of the fact that X-rays scatter preferentially perpendicular to the polarization direction. A beryllium scattering element surrounded by pixellated CZT detectors is located at the focal point of the InFOC mu S hard X-ray mirror. The instrument was launched for a long-duration balloon (LDB) flight from McMurdo (Antarctica) on December 29, 2018, and obtained the first constraints of the hard X-ray polarization of an accretion-powered pulsar. Here, we describe the characterization and calibration of the instrument on the ground and its performance during the flight, as well as simulations of particle backgrounds and a comparison to measured rates. The pointing system and polarimeter achieved the excellent projected performance. The energy detection threshold for the anticoincidence system was found to be higher than expected and it exhibited unanticipated dead time. Both issues will be remedied for future flights. Overall, the mission performance was nominal, and results will inform the design of the follow-up mission XL-Calibur, which is scheduled to be launched in summer 2022.
|
|
| 9. |
- Alabas, Oras A., et al.
(author)
-
Statistics on mortality following acute myocardial infarction in 842 897 Europeans
- 2020
-
In: Cardiovascular Research. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0008-6363 .- 1755-3245. ; 116:1, s. 149-157
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: To compare ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) mortality between Sweden and the UK, adjusting for background population rates of expected death, case mix, and treatments.Methods and results: National data were collected from hospitals in Sweden [n = 73 hospitals, 180 368 patients, Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART)] and the UK [n = 247, 662 529 patients, Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP)] between 2003 and 2013. There were lower rates of revascularization [STEMI (43.8% vs. 74.9%); NSTEMI (27.5% vs. 43.6%)] and pharmacotherapies at time of hospital discharge including [aspirin (82.9% vs. 90.2%) and (79.9% vs. 88.0%), beta-blockers (73.4% vs. 86.4%) and (65.3% vs. 85.1%)] in the UK compared with Sweden, respectively. Standardized net probability of death (NPD) between admission and 1 month was higher in the UK for STEMI [8.0 (95% confidence interval 7.4-8.5) vs. 6.7 (6.5-6.9)] and NSTEMI [6.8 (6.4-7.2) vs. 4.9 (4.7-5.0)]. Between 6 months and 1 year and more than 1 year, NPD remained higher in the UK for NSTEMI [2.9 (2.5-3.3) vs. 2.3 (2.2-2.5)] and [21.4 (20.0-22.8) vs. 18.3 (17.6-19.0)], but was similar for STEMI [0.7 (0.4-1.0) vs. 0.9 (0.7-1.0)] and [8.4 (6.7-10.1) vs. 8.3 (7.5-9.1)].Conclusion: Short-term mortality following STEMI and NSTEMI was higher in the UK compared with Sweden. Mid- and longer-term mortality remained higher in the UK for NSTEMI but was similar for STEMI. Differences in mortality may be due to differential use of guideline-indicated treatments.
|
|
| 10. |
- Aoyagi, M., et al.
(author)
-
Systematic effects on a Compton polarimeter at the focus of an X-ray mirror
- 2024
-
In: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 158
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- XL-Calibur is a balloon-borne Compton polarimeter for X-rays in the ∼15–80 keV range. Using an X-ray mirror with a 12 m focal length for collecting photons onto a beryllium scattering rod surrounded by CZT detectors, a minimum-detectable polarization as low as ∼3% is expected during a 24-hour on-target observation of a 1 Crab source at 45° elevation. Systematic effects alter the reconstructed polarization as the mirror focal spot moves across the beryllium scatterer, due to pointing offsets, mechanical misalignment or deformation of the carbon-fiber truss supporting the mirror and the polarimeter. Unaddressed, this can give rise to a spurious polarization signal for an unpolarized flux, or a change in reconstructed polarization fraction and angle for a polarized flux. Using bench-marked Monte-Carlo simulations and an accurate mirror point-spread function characterized at synchrotron beam-lines, systematic effects are quantified, and mitigation strategies discussed. By recalculating the scattering site for a shifted beam, systematic errors can be reduced from several tens of percent to the few-percent level for any shift within the scattering element. The treatment of these systematic effects will be important for any polarimetric instrument where a focused X-ray beam is impinging on a scattering element surrounded by counting detectors.
|
|
