| 1. |
- Chadburn, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes : using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5143-5169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that an improved simulation of photosynthesis would also lead to an improved simulation of soil carbon stocks. However, the stocks are also influenced by soil carbon burial (e.g. through cryoturbation) and the rate of heterotrophic respiration, which depends on the soil physical state. More detailed below-ground measurements are needed to fully evaluate biological and physical soil processes. Furthermore, even if these processes are well modelled, the soil carbon profiles cannot resemble peat layers as peat accumulation processes are not represented in the models. Thus, we identify three priority areas for model development: (1) dynamic vegetation including (a) climate and (b) nutrient limitation effects; (2) adding moss as a plant functional type; and an (3) improved vertical profile of soil carbon including peat processes.
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| 2. |
- Chadburn, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 34:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methane emissions from natural wetlands tend to increase with temperature and therefore may lead to a positive feedback under future climate change. However, their temperature response includes confounding factors and appears to differ on different time scales. Observed methane emissions depend strongly on temperature on a seasonal basis, but if the annual mean emissions are compared between sites, there is only a small temperature effect. We hypothesize that microbial dynamics are a major driver of the seasonal cycle and that they can explain this apparent discrepancy. We introduce a relatively simple model of methanogenic growth and dormancy into a wetland methane scheme that is used in an Earth system model. We show that this addition is sufficient to reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of methane emissions in fully saturated wetland sites, at the same time as reproducing the annual mean emissions. We find that a more complex scheme used in recent Earth system models does not add predictive power. The sites used span a range of climatic conditions, with the majority in high latitudes. The difference in apparent temperature sensitivity seasonally versus spatially cannot be recreated by the non-microbial schemes tested. We therefore conclude that microbial dynamics are a strong candidate to be driving the seasonal cycle of wetland methane emissions. We quantify longer-term temperature sensitivity using this scheme and show that it gives approximately a 12% increase in emissions per degree of warming globally. This is in addition to any hydrological changes, which could also impact future methane emissions.
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| 3. |
- Chaudhary, Nitin, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling Pan-Arctic Peatland Carbon Dynamics Under Alternative Warming Scenarios
- 2022
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276. ; 49:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands store large amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and they are vulnerable to recent warming. The ongoing warming may change their carbon sink capacity and could reduce their potential to sequester carbon. In this study, we simulated peatland carbon dynamics in distinct future climate conditions using the peatland-vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The study examined whether less pronounced warming could further enhance the peatland carbon sink capacity and buffer the effects of climate change. It also determined which trajectory peatland carbon balance would follow, what the main drivers were, and which one would dominate in the future. We found that peatlands will largely retain their carbon sink capacity under the climate scenario RCP2.6 to RCP6.0. They are projected to shift from a carbon sink to a carbon-neutral (5–10 gC m−2 yr−1) in RCP8.5. Higher respiration rates will dominate the net productivity in a warmer world leading to a reduction in carbon sink capacity.
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| 4. |
- Gisnås, Kjersti, et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost Map for Norway, Sweden and Finland
- 2017
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Ingår i: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. - : Wiley. - 1045-6740 .- 1099-1530. ; 28:2, s. 359-378
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A research-based understanding of permafrost distribution at a sufficient spatial resolution is important to meet the demands of science, education and society. We present a new permafrost map for Norway, Sweden and Finland that provides a more detailed and updated description of permafrost distribution in this area than previously available. We implemented the CryoGRID1 model at 1km(2) resolution, forced by a new operationally gridded data-set of daily air temperature and snow cover for Finland, Norway and Sweden. Hundred model realisations were run for each grid cell, based on statistical snow distributions, allowing for the representation of sub-grid variability of ground temperature. The new map indicates a total permafrost area (excluding palsas) of 23 400km(2) in equilibrium with the average 1981-2010 climate, corresponding to 2.2 per cent of the total land area. About 56 per cent of the area is in Norway, 35 per cent in Sweden and 9 per cent in Finland. The model results are thoroughly evaluated, both quantitatively and qualitatively, as a collaboration project including permafrost experts in the three countries. Observed ground temperatures from 25 boreholes are within +/- 2 degrees C of the average modelled grid cell ground temperature, and all are within the range of the modelled ground temperature for the corresponding grid cell. Qualitative model evaluation by field investigators within the three countries shows that the map reproduces the observed lower altitudinal limits of mountain permafrost and the distribution of lowland permafrost.
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| 5. |
- Kjellman, Sofia E., et al.
(författare)
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Holocene development of subarctic permafrost peatlands in Finnmark, northern Norway
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 28:12, s. 1855-1869
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Subarctic permafrost peatlands are important soil organic carbon pools, and improved knowledge about peat properties and peatland sensitivity to past climate change is essential when predicting future response to a warmer climate and associated feedback mechanisms. In this study, Holocene peatland development and permafrost dynamics of four subarctic peat plateaus in Finnmark, northern Norway have been investigated through detailed analyses of plant macrofossils and geochemical properties. Peatland inception occurred around 9800 cal. yr BP and 9200 cal. yr BP at the two continental sites Suossjavri and Iskoras. Younger basal peat ages were found at the two coastal locations Lakselv and Karlebotn, at least partly caused by the time lag between deglaciation and emergence of land by isostatic uplift. Here, peatland development started around 6150 cal. yr BP and 5150 cal. yr BP, respectively. All four peatlands developed as wet fens throughout most of the Holocene. Permafrost aggradation, causing frost heave and a shift in the vegetation assemblage from wet fen to dry bog species, probably did not occur until during the last millennium, ca. 950 cal. yr BP in Karlebotn and ca. 800 cal. yr BP in Iskoras, and before ca. 150 cal. yr BP in Lakselv and ca. 100 cal. yr BP in Suossjavri. In Karlebotn, there are indications of a possible earlier permafrost phase around 2200 cal. yr BP due to climatic cooling at the late Subboreal to early Subatlantic transition. The mean long-term Holocene carbon accumulation rate at all four sites was 12.3 +/- 4.1 gC m(-2) yr(-1) (+/- SD) and the mean soil organic carbon storage was 97 +/- 46 kgC m(-2).
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Palmtag, Juri, 1980-, et al.
(författare)
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A high spatial resolution soil carbon and nitrogen dataset for the northern permafrost region based on circumpolar land cover upscaling
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 14:9, s. 4095-4110
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soils in the northern high latitudes are a key component in the global carbon cycle; the northern permafrost region covers 22% of the Northern Hemisphere land surface area and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. Permafrost soil organic matter stocks represent an enormous long-term carbon sink which is in risk of switching to a net source in the future. Detailed knowledge about the quantity and the mechanisms controlling organic carbon storage is of utmost importance for our understanding of potential impacts of and feedbacks on climate change. Here we present a geospatial dataset of physical and chemical soil properties calculated from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. The aim of our dataset is to provide a basis to describe spatial patterns in soil properties, including quantifying carbon and nitrogen stocks. There is a particular need for spatially distributed datasets of soil properties, including vertical and horizontal distribution patterns, for modeling at local, regional, or global scales. This paper presents this dataset, describes in detail soil sampling; laboratory analysis, and derived soil geochemical parameters; calculations; and data clustering. Moreover, we use this dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage estimates in soils in the northern circumpolar permafrost region (17.9 x 106 km2) using the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) global land cover dataset at 300m pixel resolution. We estimate organic carbon and total nitrogen stocks on a circumpolar scale (excluding Tibet) for the 0-100 and 0-300 cm soil depth to be 380 and 813 Pg for carbon, and 21 and 55 Pg for nitrogen, respectively. Our organic carbon estimates agree with previous studies, with most recent estimates of 1000 Pg (170 to C186 Pg) to 300 cm depth. Two separate datasets are freely available on the Bolin Centre Database repository (https://doi.org/10.17043/palmtag-2022-pedon-1, Palmtag et al., 2022a; and https://doi.org/10.17043/palmtag-2022-spatial-1, Palmtag et al., 2002b).
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| 8. |
- Qiu, Chunjing, et al.
(författare)
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A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands
- 2022
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 5:1, s. 86-97
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.
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| 9. |
- Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara, et al.
(författare)
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Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains similar to 560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170-740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10-110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2-34) and 38 (13-110) megatons C yr(-1), respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO(2)e) by 2100 (14-110) and 190 Gt CO(2)e by 2300 (45-590), with similar to 30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.
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| 10. |
- Treat, Claire C., et al.
(författare)
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Permafrost Carbon : Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 129:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink with lower net CO2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m−2 y−1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m−2 y−1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m−2 y−1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.
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