| 1. |
- Carlsen, H., et al.
(författare)
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Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 84, s. 155-164
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection.
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| 2. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection
- 2014
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Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 84, s. 93-100
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Co-evolutionary scenarios are used for creative prototyping with the purpose of assessing potential implications of future autonomous robot systems on civil protection. The methodology is based on a co-evolutionary scenario approach and the development of different evolutionary paths. Opportunities, threats and ethical aspects in connection with the introduction of robotics in the domestic security and safety sector are identified using an iterative participatory workshop methodology. Three creative prototypes of robotic systems are described: "RoboMall", "RoboButler" and "SnakeSquad". The debate in society that might follow the introduction of these three robot systems and society's response to the experienced ethical problems and opportunities are discussed in the context of two scenarios of different future societies.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Transparent scenario development
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 7:9, s. 613-613
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- Carlsson Kanyama, Annika, et al.
(författare)
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"We want to know where the line is" : comparing current planning for future sea-level rise with three core principles of robust decision support approaches
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. - : Routledge. - 0964-0568 .- 1360-0559. ; 62:8, s. 1339-1358
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Handling uncertainties is a major challenge in climate change adaptation. A variety of robust decision support approaches that aim for better management of uncertainty have recently been emerging and are used in environmental planning. The present study examined to what extent existing processes of planning for future sea-level rise in Sweden utilised similar approaches. Three core principles of robust decision support approaches were identified and used as a tool for analyzing five cases of planning for future sea-level rise in companies and authorities at different levels in society. The results show that planning processes typically do not embrace uncertainties, do not use a bottom-up approach and do not specifically aim for robustness, which points to a discrepancy between current planning paradigms and the core principles of robust decision support approaches.
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| 6. |
- Carstens, Christoffer, et al.
(författare)
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Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level
- 2019
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 11:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.
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| 7. |
- Döhlen Wedin, Anna
(författare)
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The planner's dilemma : An ethical investigation of adaptation to sea level rise
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This is a thesis on the ethics of adaptation to sea level rise, with a focus on proactive adaptation planning. The research, which has been conducted within a transdisciplinary research project, takes a bottom-up approach to applied ethics, and has been conducted in close collaboration withadaptation planners and other project partners. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter which includes broader methodological concerns, and an overview of scientific and theoretical issues that are considered as relevant background to the broader research topic, as well as five articles.Article 1: Departing from an interview study with planners working with adaptation to sea level rise in Sweden, a typology of ethical issuesis presented. It is shown that planners have to deal with input-oriented, process-oriented, and outcome-oriented ethical issues, and that knowledge of these can contribute to ethical adaptation policy.Article 2: Responsibility of adaptation to sea level rise is often assigned to local planners. But what does it mean to be responsible? Departing from the idea of professional virtues, three codes of ethics for planners are analysed to extract aspirational characteristics for planners. The identified virtues are put in relation to central challenges of adaptation, where five virtues stand out as central to the understanding of what it means to be responsible in adaptation to sea level rise.Article 3: A method building on Value Sensitive Design (VSD) and scenario planning is developed and applied to address the challenge of integrating ethics when planning for uncertainty over long time-horizons, in the context of adaptation to sea level rise. The method iscalled VSSP and consists of three steps for scenario development and three steps for value investigations. The application resulted in insights on aspects important for an ethical long-term adaptation to sea levelrise.Article 4: Climate change and adaptation to climate change tend to have disproportionately negative impacts on women. An analysis of what a gender-sensitive adaptation planning needs to address is conducted, and the potential of VSSP as an approach for promoting gender equality in long-term adaptation planning is investigated.Article 5: The concept of feasibility, as it is used in the climate change context, is discussed. It is found that common uses of the term fail to capture what is meant by feasibility, and that this can have significant consequences for practical deliberation on climate policy. The conditional probability account of feasibility, as discussed in political theory, is suggested as a preferable account for feasibility in the climate change discourse.In all, the thesis explores a range of ethical topics of relevance in the context of planning for a sustainable adaptation to sea level rise. It bridges practical experiences and concerns with insights from the fields of climate ethics, decision theory, philosophy of technology, and political philosophy, to mention a few. In doing this, the thesis contributes to thegrowing field of ethics of climate change adaptation, with results that can be of interest to both philosophers, planners, and others working with adaptation genrally and adaptation to sea level rise specifically.
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| 8. |
- Kanyama, Annika Carlsson, et al.
(författare)
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"The Greatest Benefit Is to Think Differently" : Experiences of Developing and Using a Web-Based Tool for Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Municipalities
- 2024
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 16:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The need for handling the deep uncertainty surrounding the future climate has led to various novel and robust approaches for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) when adapting to climate change. Here, an online and self-explanatory web-based tool was developed and tested with civil servants from five municipalities in Sweden challenged by rising sea levels. The municipalities used the tool by themselves and were then interviewed about the usability of the tool, the perceived urgency of climate change adaptation, and the possibilities for municipalities for handling the flexible solutions that are at the core of DMDU. Results were that the civil servants reported that the urgency of climate change adaptation has increased, that the tool changed their perspectives compared to traditional planning methods, and that changes in laws and regulations to accommodate decisions about flexible solutions were recommended.
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| 9. |
- Metzger, Jonathan, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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The flexibility gamble : challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1523-908X .- 1522-7200.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate change. However, the success of flexible approaches in practice depends on the stability of the relevant organizational landscapes. In this paper, we draw upon key insights from the institutional theories of organizations and research on public administration and climate adaptation in Sweden. We argue that potential organizational instabilities pose a substantial challenge for the mainstreaming of flexible approaches to climate adaptation. Given the unstable character of the relevant organizational landscape in a very stable country such as Sweden, it seems reasonable to also seriously doubt the capacity of the relevant authorities in less stable countries to carry out a great number of monitoring-intensive, and hence attention-demanding, adaptive governance processes over time. Based on our results we argue that it is perilous to simply assume that flexible approaches to climate adaptation will lead to greater robustness.
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