| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Mason, L., et al.
(författare)
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Preference for biological motion is reduced in ASD : implications for clinical trials and the search for biomarkers
- 2021
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Ingår i: Molecular Autism. - : Springer Nature. - 2040-2392. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The neurocognitive mechanisms underlying autism spectrum disorder (ASD) remain unclear. Progress has been largely hampered by small sample sizes, variable age ranges and resulting inconsistent findings. There is a pressing need for large definitive studies to delineate the nature and extent of key case/control differences to direct research towards fruitful areas for future investigation. Here we focus on perception of biological motion, a promising index of social brain function which may be altered in ASD. In a large sample ranging from childhood to adulthood, we assess whether biological motion preference differs in ASD compared to neurotypical participants (NT), how differences are modulated by age and sex and whether they are associated with dimensional variation in concurrent or later symptomatology.Methods: Eye-tracking data were collected from 486 6-to-30-year-old autistic (N = 282) and non-autistic control (N = 204) participants whilst they viewed 28 trials pairing biological (BM) and control (non-biological, CTRL) motion. Preference for the biological motion stimulus was calculated as (1) proportion looking time difference (BM-CTRL) and (2) peak look duration difference (BM-CTRL).Results: The ASD group showed a present but weaker preference for biological motion than the NT group. The nature of the control stimulus modulated preference for biological motion in both groups. Biological motion preference did not vary with age, gender, or concurrent or prospective social communicative skill within the ASD group, although a lack of clear preference for either stimulus was associated with higher social-communicative symptoms at baseline.Limitations: The paired visual preference we used may underestimate preference for a stimulus in younger and lower IQ individuals. Our ASD group had a lower average IQ by approximately seven points. 18% of our sample was not analysed for various technical and behavioural reasons.Conclusions: Biological motion preference elicits small-to-medium-sized case–control effects, but individual differences do not strongly relate to core social autism associated symptomatology. We interpret this as an autistic difference (as opposed to a deficit) likely manifest in social brain regions. The extent to which this is an innate difference present from birth and central to the autistic phenotype, or the consequence of a life lived with ASD, is unclear.
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| 3. |
- Nounu, Aayah, et al.
(författare)
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A combined proteomics and mendelian randomization approach to investigate the effects of aspirin-targeted proteins on colorectal cancer
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : Elsevier. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 30:3, s. 564-575
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Evidence for aspirin’s chemopreventative properties on colorectal cancer (CRC) is substantial, but its mechanism of action is not well-understood. We combined a proteomic approach with Mendelian randomization (MR) to identify possible new aspirin targets that decrease CRC risk.Methods: Human colorectal adenoma cells (RG/C2) were treated with aspirin (24 hours) and a stable isotope labeling with amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) based proteomics approach identified altered protein expression. Protein quantitative trait loci (pQTLs) from INTERVAL (N ¼ 3,301) and expression QTLs (eQTLs) from the eQTLGen Consortium (N ¼ 31,684) were used as genetic proxies for protein and mRNA expression levels. Two-sample MR of mRNA/protein expression on CRC risk was performed using eQTL/pQTL data combined with CRC genetic summary data from the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT), Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer (GECCO) consortia and UK Biobank (55,168 cases and 65,160 controls).Results: Altered expression was detected for 125/5886 proteins. Of these, aspirin decreased MCM6, RRM2, and ARFIP2 expression, and MR analysis showed that a standard deviation increase in mRNA/protein expression was associated with increased CRC risk (OR: 1.08, 95% CI, 1.03–1.13; OR: 3.33, 95% CI, 2.46–4.50; and OR: 1.15, 95% CI, 1.02–1.29, respectively).Conclusions: MCM6 and RRM2 are involved in DNA repair whereby reduced expression may lead to increased DNA aberrations and ultimately cancer cell death, whereas ARFIP2 is involved in actin cytoskeletal regulation, indicating a possible role in aspirin’s reduction of metastasis.Impact: Our approach has shown how laboratory experiments and population-based approaches can combine to identify aspirin-targeted proteins possibly affecting CRC risk.
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| 4. |
- Nounu, Aayah, et al.
(författare)
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Salicylic Acid and Risk of Colorectal Cancer : A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nutrients. - : MDPI. - 2072-6643. ; 13:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Salicylic acid (SA) has observationally been shown to decrease colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid, that rapidly deacetylates to SA) is an effective primary and secondary chemopreventive agent. Through a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach, we aimed to address whether levels of SA affected CRC risk, stratifying by aspirin use. A two-sample MR analysis was performed using GWAS summary statistics of SA (INTERVAL and EPIC-Norfolk, N = 14,149) and CRC (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO and UK Biobank, 55,168 cases and 65,160 controls). The DACHS study (4410 cases and 3441 controls) was used for replication and stratification of aspirin-use. SNPs proxying SA were selected via three methods: (1) functional SNPs that influence the activity of aspirin-metabolising enzymes; (2) pathway SNPs present in enzymes' coding regions; and (3) genome-wide significant SNPs. We found no association between functional SNPs and SA levels. The pathway and genome-wide SNPs showed no association between SA and CRC risk (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.84-1.27 and OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86-1.34, respectively). Results remained unchanged upon aspirin use stratification. We found little evidence to suggest that an SD increase in genetically predicted SA protects against CRC risk in the general population and upon stratification by aspirin use.
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| 5. |
- McKay, Francis, et al.
(författare)
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Artificial intelligence and medical research databases: ethical review by data access committees
- 2023
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Ingår i: BMC Medical Ethics. - : BMC. - 1472-6939. ; 24:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundIt has been argued that ethics review committees-e.g., Research Ethics Committees, Institutional Review Boards, etc.- have weaknesses in reviewing big data and artificial intelligence research. For instance, they may, due to the novelty of the area, lack the relevant expertise for judging collective risks and benefits of such research, or they may exempt it from review in instances involving de-identified data.Main bodyFocusing on the example of medical research databases we highlight here ethical issues around de-identified data sharing which motivate the need for review where oversight by ethics committees is weak. Though some argue for ethics committee reform to overcome these weaknesses, it is unclear whether or when that will happen. Hence, we argue that ethical review can be done by data access committees, since they have de facto purview of big data and artificial intelligence projects, relevant technical expertise and governance knowledge, and already take on some functions of ethical review. That said, like ethics committees, they may have functional weaknesses in their review capabilities. To strengthen that function, data access committees must think clearly about the kinds of ethical expertise, both professional and lay, that they draw upon to support their work.ConclusionData access committees can undertake ethical review of medical research databases provided they enhance that review function through professional and lay ethical expertise.
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| 6. |
- McKay, Francis, et al.
(författare)
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The ethical challenges of artificial intelligence-driven digital pathology
- 2022
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Ingår i: The journal of pathology. Clinical research. - : Wiley. - 2056-4538. ; 8:3, s. 209-216
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Digital pathology - the digitalisation of clinical histopathology services through the scanning and storage of pathology slides - has opened up new possibilities for health care in recent years, particularly in the opportunities it brings for artificial intelligence (Al)-driven research. Recognising, however, that there is little scholarly debate on the ethics of digital pathology when used for Al research, this paper summarises what it sees as four key ethical issues to consider when deploying Al infrastructures in pathology, namely, privacy, choice, equity, and trust. The themes are inspired from the authors experience grappling with the challenge of deploying an ethical digital pathology infrastructure to support Al research as part of the National Pathology Imaging Cooperative (NPIC), a collaborative of universities, hospital trusts, and industry partners largely located across the North of England. Though focusing on the UK case, internationally, few pathology departments have gone fully digital, and so the themes developed here offer a heuristic for ethical reflection for other departments currently making a similar transition or planning to do so in the future. We conclude by promoting the need for robust public governance mechanisms in Al-driven digital pathology.
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| 7. |
- Nkurunziza, Theoneste, et al.
(författare)
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mHealth-community health worker telemedicine intervention for surgical site infection diagnosis : a prospective study among women delivering via caesarean section in rural Rwanda
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group. - 2059-7908. ; 7:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Surgical site infections (SSIs) cause a significant global public health burden in low and middle-income countries. Most SSIs develop after patient discharge and may go undetected. We assessed the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of an mHealth-community health worker (CHW) home-based telemedicine intervention to diagnose SSIs in women who delivered via caesarean section in rural Rwanda. Methods This prospective cohort study included women who underwent a caesarean section at Kirehe District Hospital between September 2019 and March 2020. At postoperative day 10 (+/- 3 days), a trained CHW visited the woman at home, provided wound care and transmitted a photo of the wound to a remote general practitioner (GP) via WhatsApp. The GP reviewed the photo and made an SSI diagnosis. The next day, the woman returned to the hospital for physical examination by an independent GP, whose SSI diagnosis was considered the gold standard for our analysis. We describe the intervention process indicators and report the sensitivity and specificity of the telemedicine-based diagnosis. Results Of 787 women included in the study, 91.4% (n=719) were located at their home by the CHW and all of them (n=719, 100%) accepted the intervention. The full intervention was completed, including receipt of GP telemedicine diagnosis within 1 hour, for 79.0% (n=623). The GPs diagnosed 30 SSIs (4.2%) through telemedicine and 38 SSIs (5.4%) through physical examination. The telemedicine sensitivity was 36.8% and specificity was 97.6%. The negative predictive value was 96.4%. Conclusions Implementation of an mHealth-CHW home-based intervention in rural Rwanda and similar settings is feasible. Patients acceptance of the intervention was key to its success. The telemedicine-based SSI diagnosis had a high negative predictive value but a low sensitivity. Further studies must explore strategies to improve accuracy, such as accompanying wound images with clinical data or developing algorithms using machine learning.
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| 8. |
- Williams, Bethany J., et al.
(författare)
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A Systematic Analysis of Discordant Diagnoses in Digital Pathology Compared With Light Microscopy
- 2017
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Ingår i: Archives of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine. - : COLL AMER PATHOLOGISTS. - 0003-9985 .- 1543-2165. ; 141:12, s. 1712-1718
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context.-Relatively little is known about the significance and potential impact of glass-digital discordances, and this is likely to be of importance when considering digital pathology adoption. Objective.-To apply evidence-based medicine to collect and analyze reported instances of glass-digital discordance from the whole slide imaging validation literature. Design.-We used our prior systematic review protocol to identify studies assessing the concordance of light microscopy and whole slide imaging between 1999 and 2015. Data were extracted and analyzed by a team of histopathologists to classify the type, significance, and potential root cause of discordances. Results.-Twenty-three studies were included, yielding 8069 instances of a glass diagnosis being compared with a digital diagnosis. From these 8069 comparisons, 335 instances of discordance (4%) were reported, in which glass was the preferred diagnostic medium in 286 (85%), and digital in 44 (13%), with no consensus in 5 (2%). Twenty-eight discordances had the potential to cause moderate/severe patient harm. Of these, glass was the preferred diagnostic medium for 26 (93%). Of the 335 discordances, 109 (32%) involved the diagnosis or grading of dysplasia. For these cases, glass was the preferred diagnostic medium in 101 cases (93%), suggesting that diagnosis and grading of dysplasia may be a potential pitfall of digital diagnosis. In 32 of 335 cases (10%), discordance on digital was attributed to the inability to find a small diagnostic/prognostic object. Conclusions.-Systematic analysis of concordance studies reveals specific areas that may be problematic on whole slide imaging. It is important that pathologists are aware of these areas to ensure patient safety.
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