| 1. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 2. |
- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(författare)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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Ingår i: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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| 3. |
- Arthur Hvidtfeldt, Ulla, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term exposure to fine particle elemental components and lung cancer incidence in the ELAPSE pooled cohort
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0013-9351 .- 1096-0953. ; 193
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: An association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and lung cancer has been established in previous studies. PM2.5 is a complex mixture of chemical components from various sources and little is known about whether certain components contribute specifically to the associated lung cancer risk. The present study builds on recent findings from the Effects of Low-level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) collaboration and addresses the potential association between specific elemental components of PM2.5 and lung cancer incidence.Methods: We pooled seven cohorts from across Europe and assigned exposure estimates for eight components of PM2.5 representing non-tail pipe emissions (copper (Cu), iron (Fe), and zinc (Zn)), long-range transport (sulfur (S)), oil burning/industry emissions (nickel (Ni), vanadium (V)), crustal material (silicon (Si)), and biomass burning (potassium (K)) to cohort participants' baseline residential address based on 100 m by 100 m grids from newly developed hybrid models combining air pollution monitoring, land use data, satellite observations, and dispersion model estimates. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, calendar year, marital status, smoking, body mass index, employment status, and neighborhood-level socio-economic status).Results: The pooled study population comprised 306,550 individuals with 3916 incident lung cancer events during 5,541,672 person-years of follow-up. We observed a positive association between exposure to all eight components and lung cancer incidence, with adjusted HRs of 1.10 (95% CI 1.05, 1.16) per 50 ng/m(3) PM2.5 K, 1.09 (95% CI 1.02, 1.15) per 1 ng/m3 PM2.5 Ni, 1.22 (95% CI 1.11, 1.35) per 200 ng/m(3) PM2.5 S, and 1.07 (95% CI 1.02, 1.12) per 200 ng/m(3) PM2.5 V. Effect estimates were largely unaffected by adjustment for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). After adjustment for PM2.5 mass, effect estimates of K, Ni, S, and V were slightly attenuated, whereas effect estimates of Cu, Si, Fe, and Zn became null or negative.Conclusions: Our results point towards an increased risk of lung cancer in connection with sources of combustion particles from oil and biomass burning and secondary inorganic aerosols rather than non-exhaust traffic emissions. Specific limit values or guidelines targeting these specific PM2.5 components may prove helpful in future lung cancer prevention strategies.
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| 4. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality : an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 383:9919, s. 785-795
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. Methods We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367 251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), less than 10 mu m (PM10), and between 10 mu m and 2.5 mu m (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buff er. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings The total study population consisted of 367 251 participants who contributed 5 118 039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29 076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 mu g/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I-2 p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 mu g/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 mu g/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). Interpretation Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value.
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| 5. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term Exposure to Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Mortality An Analysis of 22 European Cohorts
- 2014
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Ingår i: Epidemiology. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 1044-3983 .- 1531-5487. ; 25:3, s. 368-378
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular mortality, but it remains unclear as to whether specific pollutants are related to specific cardiovascular causes of death. Within the multicenter European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we investigated the associations of long-term exposure to several air pollutants with all cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, as well as with specific cardiovascular causes of death. Methods: Data from 22 European cohort studies were used. Using a standardized protocol, study area-specific air pollution exposure at the residential address was characterized as annual average concentrations of the following: nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx); particles with diameters of less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), less than 10 mu m (PM10), and 10 mu m to 2.5 mu m (PMcoarse); PM2.5 absorbance estimated by land-use regression models; and traffic indicators. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazards models using a standardized protocol. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled effect estimates. Results: The total study population consisted of 367,383 participants, with 9994 deaths from CVD (including 4,992 from ischemic heart disease, 2264 from myocardial infarction, and 2484 from cerebrovascular disease). All hazard ratios were approximately 1.0, except for particle mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality; for PM2.5, the hazard ratio was 1.21 (95% confidence interval = 0.87-1.69) per 5 mu g/m(3) and for PM10, 1.22 (0.91-1.63) per 10 mu g/m(3). Conclusion: In a joint analysis of data from 22 European cohorts, most hazard ratios for the association of air pollutants with mortality from overall CVD and with specific CVDs were approximately 1.0, with the exception of particulate mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality for which there was suggestive evidence for an association.
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| 6. |
- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Natural-Cause Mortality and Long-Term Exposure to Particle Components : An Analysis of 19 European Cohorts within the Multi-Center ESCAPE Project
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Environmental Health Perspectives. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 123:6, s. 525-533
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies have shown associations between mortality and long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution. Few cohort studies have estimated the effects of the elemental composition of particulate matter on mortality. Objectives: Our aim was to study the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to elemental components of particulate matter. Methods: Mortality and confounder data from 19 European cohort studies were used. Residential exposure to eight a priori-selected components of particulate matter ( PM) was characterized following a strictly standardized protocol. Annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc within PM size fractions <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) and <= 10 mu m (PM10) were estimated using land-use regression models. Cohort-specific statistical analyses of the associations between mortality and air pollution were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models using a common protocol followed by meta-analysis. Results: The total study population consisted of 291,816 participants, of whom 25,466 died from a natural cause during follow-up (average time of follow-up, 14.3 years). Hazard ratios were positive for almost all elements and statistically significant for PM2.5 sulfur (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23 per 200ng/m(3)). In a two-pollutant model, the association with PM2.5 sulfur was robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass, whereas the association with PM2.5 mass was reduced. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 sulfur was associated with natural-cause mortality. This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants and PM2.5.
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| 7. |
- Boehme, Katja, et al.
(författare)
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Concerted Actions of a Thermo-labile Regulator and a Unique Intergenic RNA Thermosensor Control Yersinia Virulence
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLOS PATHOGENS. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7366 .- 1553-7374. ; 8:2, s. e1002518-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Expression of all Yersinia pathogenicity factors encoded on the virulence plasmid, including the yop effector and the ysc type III secretion genes, is controlled by the transcriptional activator LcrF in response to temperature. Here, we show that a protein-and RNA-dependent hierarchy of thermosensors induce LcrF synthesis at body temperature. Thermally regulated transcription of lcrF is modest and mediated by the thermo-sensitive modulator YmoA, which represses transcription from a single promoter located far upstream of the yscW-lcrF operon at moderate temperatures. The transcriptional response is complemented by a second layer of temperature-control induced by a unique cis-acting RNA element located within the intergenic region of the yscW-lcrF transcript. Structure probing demonstrated that this region forms a secondary structure composed of two stemloops at 25 degrees C. The second hairpin sequesters the lcrF ribosomal binding site by a stretch of four uracils. Opening of this structure was favored at 37 degrees C and permitted ribosome binding at host body temperature. Our study further provides experimental evidence for the biological relevance of an RNA thermometer in an animal model. Following oral infections in mice, we found that two different Y. pseudotuberculosis patient isolates expressing a stabilized thermometer variant were strongly reduced in their ability to disseminate into the Peyer's patches, liver and spleen and have fully lost their lethality. Intriguingly, Yersinia strains with a destabilized version of the thermosensor were attenuated or exhibited a similar, but not a higher mortality. This illustrates that the RNA thermometer is the decisive control element providing just the appropriate amounts of LcrF protein for optimal infection efficiency.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Cesaroni, Giulia, et al.
(författare)
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Long term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of acute coronary events : prospective cohort study and meta-analysis in 11 European cohorts from the ESCAPE Project
- 2014
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Ingår i: The BMJ. - : BMJ. - 1756-1833. ; 348, s. f7412-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To study the effect of long term exposure to airborne pollutants on the incidence of acute coronary events in 11 cohorts participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). Design Prospective cohort studies and meta-analysis of the results. Setting Cohorts in Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and Italy. Participants 100 166 people were enrolled from 1997 to 2007 and followed for an average of 11.5 years. Participants were free from previous coronary events at baseline. Main outcome measures Modelled concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 mu m (PM2.5), 2.5-10 mu m (PMcoarse), and <10 mu m (PM10) in aerodynamic diameter, soot (PM2.5 absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and traffic exposure at the home address based on measurements of air pollution conducted in 2008-12. Cohort specific hazard ratios for incidence of acute coronary events (myocardial infarction and unstable angina) per fixed increments of the pollutants with adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle risk factors, and pooled random effects meta-analytic hazard ratios. Results 5157 participants experienced incident events. A 5 mu g/m(3) increase in estimated annual mean PM2.5 was associated with a 13% increased risk of coronary events (hazard ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.30), and a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in estimated annual mean PM10 was associated with a 12% increased risk of coronary events (1.12, 1.01 to 1.25) with no evidence of heterogeneity between cohorts. Positive associations were detected below the current annual European limit value of 25 mu g/m(3) for PM2.5 (1.18, 1.01 to 1.39, for 5 mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5) and below 40 mu g/m(3) for PM10 (1.12, 1.00 to 1.27, for 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM10). Positive but non-significant associations were found with other pollutants. Conclusions Long term exposure to particulate matter is associated with incidence of coronary events, and this association persists at levels of exposure below the current European limit values.
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| 10. |
- Chen, Jie, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and bladder cancer incidence in a pooled European cohort : the ELAPSE project
- 2022
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 126:10, s. 1499-1507
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The evidence linking ambient air pollution to bladder cancer is limited and mixed.Methods: We assessed the associations of bladder cancer incidence with residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight PM2.5 elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) in a pooled cohort (N = 302,493). Exposures were primarily assessed based on 2010 measurements and back-extrapolated to the baseline years. We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level potential confounders.Results: During an average of 18.2 years follow-up, 967 bladder cancer cases occurred. We observed a positive though statistically non-significant association between PM2.5 and bladder cancer incidence. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93–1.27) per 5 µg/m3 for 2010 exposure and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.99–1.14) for baseline exposure. Effect estimates for NO2, BC and O3 were close to unity. A positive association was observed with PM2.5 zinc (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00–1.16 per 10 ng/m3).Conclusions: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term PM2.5 mass exposure and bladder cancer, strengthening the evidence from the few previous studies. The association with zinc in PM2.5 suggests the importance of industrial emissions.
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