| 1. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 2. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 3. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 4. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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A Combined Maximum-Likelihood Analysis Of The High-Energy Astrophysical Neutrino Flux Measured With Icecube
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 809:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evidence for an extraterrestrial flux of high-energy neutrinos has now been found in multiple searches with the IceCube detector. The first solid evidence was provided by a search for neutrino events with deposited energies greater than or similar to 30 TeV and interaction vertices inside the instrumented volume. Recent analyses suggest that the extraterrestrial flux extends to lower energies and is also visible with throughgoing, nu(mu)-induced tracks from the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we combine the results from six different IceCube searches for astrophysical neutrinos in a maximum-likelihood analysis. The combined event sample features high-statistics samples of shower-like and track-like events. The data are fit in up to three observables: energy, zenith angle, and event topology. Assuming the astrophysical neutrino flux to be isotropic and to consist of equal flavors at Earth, the all-flavor spectrum with neutrino energies between 25 TeV and 2.8 PeV is well described by an unbroken power law with best-fit spectral index -2.50 +/- 0.09 and a flux at 100 TeV of (6.7(-1.2)(+1.1)) x 10(-18) GeV-1 s(-1) sr(-1) cm(-2). Under the same assumptions, an unbroken power law with index -2 is disfavored with a significance of 3.8 sigma (p = 0.0066%) with respect to the best fit. This significance is reduced to 2.1 sigma (p = 1.7%) if instead we compare the best fit to a spectrum with index -2 that has an exponential cut-off at high energies. Allowing the electron-neutrino flux to deviate from the other two flavors, we find a nu(e) fraction of 0.18 +/- 0.11 at Earth. The sole production of electron neutrinos, which would be characteristic of neutron-decay-dominated sources, is rejected with a significance of 3.6 sigma ( p = 0.014%).
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| 5. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos above 1 TeV interacting in IceCube
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 91:2, s. 022001-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory was designed primarily to search for high-energy (TeV-PeV) neutLrinos produced in distant astrophysical objects. A search for. greater than or similar to 100 TeV neutrinos interacting inside the instrumented volume has recently provided evidence for an isotropic flux of such neutrinos. At lower energies, IceCube collects large numbers of neutrinos from the weak decays of mesons in cosmic-ray air showers. Here we present the results of a search for neutrino interactions inside IceCube's instrumented volume between 1 TeV and 1 PeV in 641 days of data taken from 2010-2012, lowering the energy threshold for neutrinos from the southern sky below 10 TeV for the first time, far below the threshold of the previous high-energy analysis. Astrophysical neutrinos remain the dominant component in the southern sky down to a deposited energy of 10 TeV. From these data we derive new constraints on the diffuse astrophysical neutrino spectrum, Phi(v) = 2.06(-0.3)(+0.4) x 10(-18) (E-v = 10(5) GeV)-2.46 +/- 0.12GeV-1 cm(-2) sr(-1) s(-1) for 25 TeV < E-v < 1.4 PeV, as well as the strongest upper limit yet on the flux of neutrinos from charmed-meson decay in the atmosphere, 1.52 times the benchmark theoretical prediction used in previous IceCube results at 90% confidence.
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| 6. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Characterization of the atmospheric muon flux in IceCube
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 78, s. 1-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Muons produced in atmospheric cosmic ray showers account for the by far dominant part of the event yield in large-volume underground particle detectors. The IceCube detector, with an instrumented volume of about a cubic kilometer, has the potential to conduct unique investigations on atmospheric muons by exploiting the large collection area and the possibility to track particles over a long distance. Through detailed reconstruction of energy deposition along the tracks, the characteristics of muon bundles can be quantified, and individual particles of exceptionally high energy identified. The data can then be used to constrain the cosmic ray primary flux and the contribution to atmospheric lepton fluxes from prompt decays of short-lived hadrons. In this paper, techniques for the extraction of physical measurements from atmospheric muon events are described and first results are presented. The multiplicity spectrum of TeV muons in cosmic ray air showers for primaries in the energy range from the knee to the ankle is derived and found to be consistent with recent results from surface detectors. The single muon energy spectrum is determined up to PeV energies and shows a clear indication for the emergence of a distinct spectral component from prompt decays of short-lived hadrons. The magnitude of the prompt flux, which should include a substantial contribution from light vector meson di-muon decays, is consistent with current theoretical predictions. The variety of measurements and high event statistics can also be exploited for the evaluation of systematic effects. In the course of this study, internal inconsistencies in the zenith angle distribution of events were found which indicate the presence of an unexplained effect outside the currently applied range of detector systematics. The underlying cause could be related to the hadronic interaction models used to describe muon production in air showers.
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| 7. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Development of a general analysis and unfolding scheme and its application to measure the energy spectrum of atmospheric neutrinos with IceCube
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 75:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the development and application of a generic analysis scheme for the measurement of neutrino spectra with the IceCube detector. This scheme is based on regularized unfolding, preceded by an event selection which uses a Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance algorithm to select the relevant variables and a random forest for the classification of events. The analysis has been developed using IceCube data from the 59-string configuration of the detector. 27,771 neutrino candidates were detected in 346 days of livetime. A rejection of 99.9999 % of the atmospheric muon background is achieved. The energy spectrum of the atmospheric neutrino flux is obtained using the TRUEE unfolding program. The unfolded spectrum of atmospheric muon neutrinos covers an energy range from 100 GeV to 1 PeV. Compared to the previous measurement using the detector in the 40-string configuration, the analysis presented here, extends the upper end of the atmospheric neutrino spectrum by more than a factor of two, reaching an energy region that has not been previously accessed by spectral measurements.
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| 8. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for Astrophysical Muon Neutrinos from the Northern Sky with IceCube
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 115:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Results from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory have recently provided compelling evidence for the existence of a high energy astrophysical neutrino flux utilizing a dominantly Southern Hemisphere data set consisting primarily of nu(e) and nu(tau) charged-current and neutral-current ( cascade) neutrino interactions. In the analysis presented here, a data sample of approximately 35 000 muon neutrinos from the Northern sky is extracted from data taken during 659.5 days of live time recorded between May 2010 and May 2012. While this sample is composed primarily of neutrinos produced by cosmic ray interactions in Earth's atmosphere, the highest energy events are inconsistent with a hypothesis of solely terrestrial origin at 3.7 sigma significance. These neutrinos can, however, be explained by an astrophysical flux per neutrino flavor at a level of Phi(E-nu) = 9.9(-3.4)(+3.9) x 10(-19) GeV-1 cm(-2) sr(-1) s(-1) (E-nu/100 TeV)(-2), consistent with IceCube's Southern-Hemisphere-dominated result. Additionally, a fit for an astrophysical flux with an arbitrary spectral index is performed. We find a spectral index of 2.2(-0.2)(+0.2), which is also in good agreement with the Southern Hemisphere result.
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| 9. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Flavor Ratio of Astrophysical Neutrinos above 35 TeV in IceCube
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 114:17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A diffuse flux of astrophysical neutrinos above 100 TeV has been observed at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. Here we extend this analysis to probe the astrophysical flux down to 35 TeV and analyze its flavor composition by classifying events as showers or tracks. Taking advantage of lower atmospheric backgrounds for showerlike events, we obtain a shower-biased sample containing 129 showers and 8 tracks collected in three years from 2010 to 2013. We demonstrate consistency with the (f(e) : f(mu) : f(tau))(circle plus) approximate to (1 : 1 : 1)(circle plus) flavor ratio at Earth commonly expected from the averaged oscillations of neutrinos produced by pion decay in distant astrophysical sources. Limits are placed on nonstandard flavor compositions that cannot be produced by averaged neutrino oscillations but could arise in exotic physics scenarios. A maximally tracklike composition of (0 : 1 : 0)(circle plus) is excluded at 3.3 sigma, and a purely showerlike composition of (1 : 0 : 0)(circle plus) is excluded at 2.3 sigma.
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| 10. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of the Atmospheric nu(e) Spectrum with IceCube
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 91:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a measurement of the atmospheric nu(e) spectrum at energies between 0.1 and 100 TeV using data from the first year of the complete IceCube detector. Atmospheric nu(e) originate mainly from the decays of kaons produced in cosmic-ray air showers. This analysis selects 1078 fully contained events in 332 days of live time, and then identifies those consistent with particle showers. A likelihood analysis with improved event selection extends our previous measurement of the conventional v(e) fluxes to higher energies. The data constrain the conventional nu(e) flux to be 1.3(-0.3)(+0.4) times a baseline prediction from a Honda's calculation, including the knee of the cosmic-ray spectrum. A fit to the kaon contribution (xi) to the neutrino flux finds a kaon component that is xi = 1.3(-0.4)(+0.5) times the baseline value. The fitted/measured prompt neutrino flux from charmed hadron decays strongly depends on the assumed astrophysical flux and shape. If the astrophysical component follows a power law, the result for the prompt flux is 0.0(-0.0)(+3.0) times a calculated flux based on the work by Enberg, Reno, and Sarcevic.
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