| 1. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 3. |
- Fischer, Hubertus, et al.
(författare)
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Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:7, s. 474-485
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
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| 4. |
- Kaufmann, Patrik, et al.
(författare)
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Ammonium and non-sea salt sulfate in the EPICA ice cores as indicator of biological activity in the Southern Ocean
- 2010
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 29:02-jan, s. 313-323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sulfate (SO42-) and ammonium (NH4+) flux records over the last 150,000 years from both Antarctic EPICA ice cores (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) are presented. The ice core record from Dome C is influenced by the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean (SO), whereas Dronning Maud Land is facing the Atlantic sector. Generally, they reflect the past atmospheric aerosol load and, thus, potentially reveal the fingerprint of marine biogenic sources from the SO. The most important feature of both, the nssSO(4)(2-) as well as NH4+ flux records, is the absence of any significant glacial cycles, in contrary to the distinct transitions for mineral dust and sea salt aerosol over the last 150,000 years. This finding challenges the iron fertilization hypothesis on long time scales, as the significant changes in dust, e.g. from the last glacial maximum toward the Holocene have neither an impact on nssSO(4)(2-) nor on NH4+ fluxes found in interior Antarctica. The inter-site correlation of both species is weak, r(2) = 0.42 for the nssSO(4)(2-) flux and r(2) = 0.12 for the NH4+ flux respectively, emphasizing the local Source characteristics of biogenic aerosol from the SO. Millennial variability in NH4+ and nssSO(4)(2-) is within the uncertainty of our flux estimates. Correlation with mineral dust and sea ice derived sodium shows only a very weak influence of dust deposition on those insignificant changes in nssSO(4)(2-) flux for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, but also small transport changes or terrigeneous sulfate contributions may contribute to those variations at EDML.
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| 5. |
- Mulvaney, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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The ST22 chronology for the Skytrain Ice Rise ice core - Part 2 : An age model to the last interglacial and disturbed deep stratigraphy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324. ; 19:4, s. 851-864
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an age model for the 651g€¯m deep ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, situated inland of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The top 2000 years have previously been dated using age markers interpolated through annual layer counting. Below this, we align the Skytrain core to the AICC2012 age model using tie points in the ice and air phase, and we apply the Paleochrono program to obtain the best fit to the tie points and glaciological constraints. In the gas phase, ties are made using methane and, in critical sections, δ18Oair; in the ice phase ties are through 10Be across the Laschamps event and through ice chemistry related to long-range dust transport and deposition. This strategy provides a good outcome to about 108g€¯ka (g1/4g€¯605g€¯m). Beyond that there are signs of flow disturbance, with a section of ice probably repeated. Nonetheless values of CH4 and δ18Oair confirm that part of the last interglacial (LIG), from about 117-126g€¯ka (617-627g€¯m), is present and in chronological order. Below this there are clear signs of stratigraphic disturbance, with rapid oscillation of values in both the ice and gas phase at the base of the LIG section, below 628g€¯m. Based on methane values, the warmest part of the LIG and the coldest part of the penultimate glacial are missing from our record. Ice below 631g€¯m appears to be of ageg€¯>g€¯150g€¯ka.
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| 6. |
- Polyak, Leonid, et al.
(författare)
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History of sea ice in the Arctic
- 2010
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 29:15-16, s. 1757-1778
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past. This information can be provided by proxy records from the Arctic Ocean floor and from the surrounding coasts. Although existing records are far from complete, they indicate that sea ice became a feature of the Arctic by 47 Ma, following a pronounced decline in atmospheric pCO(2) after the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Optimum, and consistently covered at least part of the Arctic Ocean for no less than the last 13-14 million years. Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2-3 million years, in accordance with Earth's overall cooler climate. Nevertheless, episodes of considerably reduced sea ice or even seasonally ice-free conditions occurred during warmer periods linked to orbital variations. The last low-ice event related to orbital forcing (high insolation) was in the early Holocene, after which the northern high latitudes cooled overall, with some superimposed shorterterm (multidecadal to millennial-scale) and lower-magnitude variability. The current reduction in Arctic ice cover started in the late 19th century, consistent with the rapidly warming climate, and became very pronounced over the last three decades. This ice loss appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities.
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| 7. |
- Sime, Louise C., et al.
(författare)
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Southern Hemisphere westerly wind changes during the Last Glacial Maximum : model-data comparison
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 64, s. 104-120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly winds are thought to be critical to global ocean circulation, productivity, and carbon storage. For example, an equatorward shift in the winds, though its affect on the Southern Ocean circulation, has been suggested as the leading cause for the reduction in atmospheric CO2 during the Last Glacial period. Despite the importance of the winds, it is currently not clear, from observations or model results, how they behave during the Last Glacial. Here, an atmospheric modelling study is performed to help determine likely changes in the SH westerly winds during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using LGM boundary conditions, the maximum in SH westerlies is strengthened by similar to+1 m s(-1) and moved southward by similar to 2 degrees at the 850 hPa pressure level. Boundary layer stabilisation effects over equatorward extended LGM sea-ice can lead to a small apparent equatorward shift in the wind band at the surface. Further sensitivity analysis with individual boundary condition changes indicate that changes in sea surface temperatures are the strongest factor behind the wind change. The HadAM3 atmospheric simulations, along with published PMIP2 coupled climate model simulations, are then assessed against the newly synthesised database of moisture observations for the LGM. Although the moisture data is the most commonly cited evidence in support of a large equatorward shift in the SH winds during the LGM, none of the models that produce realistic LGM precipitation changes show such a large equatorward shift. In fact, the model which best simulates the moisture proxy data is the HadAM3 LGM simulation which shows a small poleward wind shift. While we cannot prove here that a large equatorward shift would not be able to reproduce the moisture data as well, we show that the moisture proxies do not provide an observational evidence base for it.
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| 8. |
- Sime, Louise C., et al.
(författare)
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Warm climate isotopic simulations: what do we learn about interglacial signals in Greenland ice cores?
- 2013
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791. ; 67, s. 59-80
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements of Last Interglacial stable water isotopes in ice cores show that central Greenland delta O-18 increased by at least 3 parts per thousand compared to present day. Attempting to quantify the Greenland interglacial temperature change from these ice core measurements rests on our ability to interpret the stable water isotope content of Greenland snow. Current orbitally driven interglacial simulations do not show delta O-18 or temperature rises of the correct magnitude, leading to difficulty in using only these experiments to inform our understanding of higher interglacial delta O-18. Here, analysis of greenhouse gas warmed simulations from two isotope-enabled general circulation models, in conjunction with a set of last Interglacial sea surface observations, indicates a possible explanation for the interglacial delta O-18 rise. A reduction in the winter time sea ice concentration around the northern half of Greenland, together with an increase in sea surface temperatures over the same region, is found to be sufficient to drive a >3 parts per thousand interglacial enrichment in central Greenland snow. Warm climate delta O-18 and delta D in precipitation falling on Greenland are shown to be strongly influenced by local sea surface condition changes: local sea surface warming and a shrunken sea ice extent increase the proportion of water vapour from local (isotopically enriched) sources, compared to that from distal (isotopically depleted) sources. Precipitation intermittency changes, under warmer conditions, leads to geographical variability in the delta O-18 against temperature gradients across Greenland. Little sea surface warming around the northern areas of Greenland leads to low delta O-18 against temperature gradients (0.1-0.3 parts per thousand. per degrees C), whilst large sea surface warmings in these regions leads to higher gradients (03-0.7 parts per thousand per degrees C). These gradients imply a wide possible range of present day to interglacial temperature increases (4 to >10 degrees C). Thus, we find that uncertainty about local interglacial sea surface conditions, rather than precipitation intermittency changes, may lead to the largest uncertainties in interpreting temperature from Greenland ice cores. We find that interglacial sea surface change observational records are currently insufficient to enable discrimination between these different delta O-18 against temperature gradients. In conclusion, further information on interglacial sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes around northern Greenland should indicate whether +5 degrees C during the Last Interglacial is sufficient to drive the observed ice core delta O-18 increase, or whether a larger temperature increases or ice sheet changes are also required to explain the ice core observations. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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