| 1. |
- Finné, Martin, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene hydro-climatic variability in the Mediterranean : A synthetic multi-proxy reconstruction
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 29:5, s. 847-863
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here we identify and analyze proxy data interpreted to reflect hydro-climatic variability over the last 10,000 years from the Mediterranean region to (1) outline millennial and multi-centennial-scale trends and (2) identify regional patterns of hydro-climatic variability. A total of 47 lake, cave, and marine records were transformed to z-scores to allow direct comparisons between sites, put on a common time scale, and binned into 200-year time slices. Six different regions were identified based on numerical and spatial analyzes of z-scores: S Iberia and Maghreb, N Iberia, Italy, the Balkans, Turkey, and the Levant, and the overall hydro-climate history of each region was reconstructed. N Iberia is largely decoupled from the five other regions throughout the Holocene. Wetter conditions occur in the five other regions between 8500 and 6100 yr BP. After 6000 yr BP, climate oscillated until around 3000 ± 300 yr BP, which seems to have been the overall driest period in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. In contrast, Italy and N Iberia seem to have remained wetter during this period. In addition, non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) was applied to 18 long, continuous climate z-score records that span the majority of the Holocene. nMDS axes 1 and 2 illustrate the main trends in the z-score data. The first axis captures a long-term development of drier condition in the Mediterranean from 7900 to 3700 yr BP. Rapid shifts occur in nMDS axis 2 at 6700–6300 BP, 4500–4300 BP, and 3500–3300 BP indicating centennial-scale climate change. Our synthesis highlights a dominant south/east versus north/west Mediterranean hydro-climate dipole throughout the Holocene and therefore confirms that there was no single climate trajectory characterizing the whole Mediterranean basin during the last 10 millennia.
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| 2. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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European pollen-based REVEALS land-cover reconstructions for the Holocene : Methodology, mapping and potentials
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 14:4, s. 1581-1619
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quantitative reconstructions of past land cover are necessary to determine the processes involved in climate-human-land-cover interactions. We present the first temporally continuous and most spatially extensive pollen-based land-cover reconstruction for Europe over the Holocene (last 11g€¯700g€¯calg€¯yrg€¯BP). We describe how vegetation cover has been quantified from pollen records at a 11 spatial scale using the "Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites"(REVEALS) model. REVEALS calculates estimates of past regional vegetation cover in proportions or percentages. REVEALS has been applied to 1128 pollen records across Europe and part of the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea-Caspian corridor (30-75° N, 25° W-50° E) to reconstruct the percentage cover of 31 plant taxa assigned to 12 plant functional types (PFTs) and 3 land-cover types (LCTs). A new synthesis of relative pollen productivities (RPPs) for European plant taxa was performed for this reconstruction. It includes multiple RPP values (≥2 values) for 39 taxa and single values for 15 taxa (total of 54 taxa). To illustrate this, we present distribution maps for five taxa (Calluna vulgaris, Cerealia type (t)., Picea abies, deciduous Quercus t. and evergreen Quercus t.) and three land-cover types (open land, OL; evergreen trees, ETs; and summer-green trees, STs) for eight selected time windows. The reliability of the REVEALS reconstructions and issues related to the interpretation of the results in terms of landscape openness and human-induced vegetation change are discussed. This is followed by a review of the current use of this reconstruction and its future potential utility and development. REVEALS data quality are primarily determined by pollen count data (pollen count and sample, pollen identification, and chronology) and site type and number (lake or bog, large or small, one site vs. multiple sites) used for REVEALS analysis (for each grid cell). A large number of sites with high-quality pollen count data will produce more reliable land-cover estimates with lower standard errors compared to a low number of sites with lower-quality pollen count data. The REVEALS data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.937075 (Fyfe et al., 2022).
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| 3. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen-Based Maps of Past Regional Vegetation Cover in Europe Over 12 Millennia-Evaluation and Potential
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-701X. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Realistic and accurate reconstructions of past vegetation cover are necessary to study past environmental changes. This is important since the effects of human land-use changes (e.g. agriculture, deforestation and afforestation/reforestation) on biodiversity and climate are still under debate. Over the last decade, development, validation, and application of pollen-vegetation relationship models have made it possible to estimate plant abundance from fossil pollen data at both local and regional scales. In particular, the REVEALS model has been applied to produce datasets of past regional plant cover at 1 degrees spatial resolution at large subcontinental scales (North America, Europe, and China). However, such reconstructions are spatially discontinuous due to the discrete and irregular geographical distribution of sites (lakes and peat bogs) from which fossil pollen records have been produced. Therefore, spatial statistical models have been developed to create continuous maps of past plant cover using the REVEALS-based land cover estimates. In this paper, we present the first continuous time series of spatially complete maps of past plant cover across Europe during the Holocene (25 time windows covering the period from 11.7 k BP to present). We use a spatial-statistical model for compositional data to interpolate REVEALS-based estimates of three major land-cover types (LCTs), i.e., evergreen trees, summer-green trees and open land (grasses, herbs and low shrubs); producing spatially complete maps of the past coverage of these three LCTs. The spatial model uses four auxiliary data sets-latitude, longitude, elevation, and independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change based on per-capita land-use estimates ("standard" KK10 scenarios)-to improve model performance for areas with complex topography or few observations. We evaluate the resulting reconstructions for selected time windows using present day maps from the European Forest Institute, cross validate, and compare the results with earlier pollen-based spatially-continuous estimates for five selected time windows, i.e., 100 BP-present, 350-100 BP, 700-350 BP, 3.2-2.7 k BP, and 6.2-5.7 k BP. The evaluations suggest that the statistical model provides robust spatial reconstructions. From the maps we observe the broad change in the land-cover of Europe from dominance of naturally open land and persisting remnants of continental ice in the Early Holocene to a high fraction of forest cover in the Mid Holocene, and anthropogenic deforestation in the Late Holocene. The temporal and spatial continuity is relevant for land-use, land-cover, and climate research.
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| 4. |
- Labuhn, Inga, et al.
(författare)
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Climatic Changes and Their Impacts in the Mediterranean during the First Millennium AD
- 2018
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Ingår i: Late Antique Archaeology. - : Brill. - 1570-6893 .- 2213-4522. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many events and developments in human history have been suspected to be, at least partly, influenced by climate and environmental changes. In order to investigate climate impacts on societies, reliable palaeoclimatic data of adequate dating precision, resolution, spatial representativeness, and so on, are needed. This paper presents a survey and analysis of published palaeoclimatic data of the Mediterranean for the 1st millennium AD, and identifies regional patterns of hydro-climate variability, useful for comparison with archaeological/historical studies. It also provides general guidelines to palaeoclimatic data for archaeologists/historians interested in climatic change. We conclude with a discussion of how the emerging patterns of regional climate histories may have had an impact on Mediterranean societies in Late Antiquity.
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| 5. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Mid-Holocene European climate revisited : New high-resolution regional climate model simulations using pollen-based land-cover
- 2022
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land-cover changes have a clear impact on local climates via biophysical effects. European land cover has been affected by human activities for at least 6000 years, but possibly longer. It is thus highly probable that humans altered climate before the industrial revolution (AD1750-1850). In this study, climate and vegetation 6000 years (6 ka) ago is investigated using one global climate model, two regional climate models, one dynamical vegetation model, pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation cover using a model of the pollen-vegetation relationship and a statistical model for spatial interpolation of the reconstructed land cover. This approach enables us to study 6 ka climate with potential natural and reconstructed land cover, and to determine how differences in land cover impact upon simulated climate. The use of two regional climate models enables us to discuss the robustness of the results. This is the first experiment with two regional climate models of simulated palaeo-climate based on regional climate models. Different estimates of 6 ka vegetation are constructed: simulated potential vegetation and reconstructed vegetation. Potential vegetation is the natural climate-induced vegetation as simulated by a dynamical vegetation model driven by climate conditions from a climate model. Bayesian spatial model interpolated point estimates of pollen-based plant abundances combined with estimates of climate-induced potential un-vegetated land cover were used for reconstructed vegetation. The simulated potential vegetation is heavily dominated by forests: evergreen coniferous forests dominate in northern and eastern Europe, while deciduous broadleaved forests dominate central and western Europe. In contrast, the reconstructed vegetation cover has a large component of open land in most of Europe. The simulated 6 ka climate using reconstructed vegetation was 0-5 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial (PI) climate, depending on season and region. The largest differences are seen in north-eastern Europe in winter with about 4-6 degrees C, and the smallest differences (close to zero) in southwestern Europe in winter. The simulated 6 ka climate had 10-20% more precipitation than PI climate in northern Europe and 10-20% less precipitation in southern Europe in summer. The results are in reasonable agreement with proxy-based climate reconstructions and previous similar climate modelling studies. As expected, the global model and regional models indicate relatively similar climates albeit with regional differences indicating that, models response to land-cover changes differently. The results indicate that the anthropogenic land-cover changes, as given by the reconstructed vegetation, in this study are large enough to have a significant impact on climate. It is likely that anthropogenic impact on European climate via land-use change was already taking place at 6 ka. Our results suggest that anthropogenic land-cover changes at 6 ka lead to around 0.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer due to biogeophysical forcing. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 6. |
- Walsh, Kevin, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene demographic fluctuations, climate and erosion in the Mediterranean : A meta data-analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 29:5, s. 864-885
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As part of the Changing the Face of the Mediterranean Project, we consider how human pressure and concomitant erosion has affected a range of Mediterranean landscapes between the Neolithic and, in some cases, the post-medieval period. Part of this assessment comprises an investigation of relationships among palaeodemographic data, evidence for vegetation change and some consideration of rapid climate change events. The erosion data include recent or hitherto unpublished work from the authors. Where possible, we consider summed probabilities of 14C dates as well as the first published synthesis of all known optically stimulated luminescence dated sequences. The results suggest that while there were some periods when erosion took place contemporaneously across a number of regions, possibly induced by climate changes, more often than not, we see a complex and heterogeneous interplay of demographic and environmental changes that result in a mixed pattern of erosional activity across the Mediterranean.
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| 7. |
- Weiberg, Erika, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term trends of land use and demography in Greece : A comparative study
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 29:5, s. 742-760
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper offers a comparative study of land use and demographic development in northern and southern Greece from the Neolithic to the Byzantine period. Results from summed probability densities (SPD) of archaeological radiocarbon dates and settlement numbers derived from archaeological site surveys are combined with results from cluster-based analysis of published pollen core assemblages to offer an integrated view of human pressure on the Greek landscape through time. We demonstrate that SPDs offer a useful approach to outline differences between regions and a useful complement to archaeological site surveys, evaluated here especially for the onset of the Neolithic and for the Final Neolithic (FN)/Early Bronze Age (EBA) transition. Pollen analysis highlight differences in vegetation between the two sub-regions, but also several parallel changes. The comparison of land cover dynamics between two sub-regions of Greece further demonstrates the significance of the bioclimatic conditions of core locations and that apparent oppositions between regions may in fact be two sides of the same coin in terms of socio-ecological trajectories. We also assess the balance between anthropogenic and climate-related impacts on vegetation and suggest that climatic variability was as an important factor for vegetation regrowth. Finally, our evidence suggests that the impact of humans on land cover is amplified from the Late Bronze Age (LBA) onwards as more extensive herding and agricultural practices are introduced.
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| 8. |
- Woodbridge, Jessie, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen-inferred regional vegetation patterns and demographic change in Southern Anatolia through the Holocene
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 29:5, s. 728-741
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Southern Anatolia is a highly significant area within the Mediterranean, particularly in terms of understanding how agriculture moved into Europe from neighbouring regions. This study uses pollen, palaeoclimate and archaeological evidence to investigate the relationships between demography and vegetation change, and to explore how the development of agriculture varied spatially. Data from 21 fossil pollen records have been transformed into forested, parkland and open vegetation types using cluster analysis. Patterns of change have been explored using non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) and through analysis of indicator groups, such as an Anthropogenic Pollen Index, and Simpson’s Diversity. Settlement data, which indicate population densities, and summed radiocarbon dates for archaeological sites have been used as a proxy for demographic change. The pollen and archaeological records confirm that farming can be detected earlier in Anatolia in comparison with many other parts of the Mediterranean. Dynamics of change in grazing indicators and the OJCV (Olea, Juglans, Castanea and Vitis) index for cultivated trees appear to match cycles of population expansion and decline. Vegetation and land use change is also influenced by other factors, such as climate change. Investigating the early impacts of anthropogenic activities (e.g. woodcutting, animal herding, the use of fire and agriculture) is key to understanding how societies have modified the environment since the mid–late Holocene, despite the capacity of ecological systems to absorb recurrent disturbances. The results of this study suggest that shifting human population dynamics played an important role in shaping land cover in central and southern Anatolia.
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