| 1. |
- Zhang, Huan, et al.
(author)
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East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
- 2018
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.
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| 2. |
- Esper, Jan, et al.
(author)
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Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt. Smolikas tree-ring densities
- 2020
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In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:3-4, s. 1367-1382
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Mediterranean has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet a high-resolution temperature reconstruction extending back into the Medieval Warm Period is still lacking. Here we present such a record from a high-elevation site on Mt. Smolikas in northern Greece, where some of Europe's oldest trees provide evidence of warm season temperature variability back to 730 CE. The reconstruction is derived from 192 annually resolved, latewood density series from ancient living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees calibrating at r(1911-2015) = 0.73 against regional July-September (JAS) temperatures. Although the recent 1985-2014 period was the warmest 30-year interval (JAS Twrt.1961-1990 = + 0.71 degrees C) since the eleventh century, temperatures during the ninth to tenth centuries were even warmer, including the warmest reconstructed 30-year period from 876-905 (+ 0.78 degrees C). These differences between warm periods are statistically insignificant though. Several distinct cold episodes punctuate the Little Ice Age, albeit the coldest 30-year period is centered during high medieval times from 997-1026 (- 1.63 degrees C). Comparison with reconstructions from the Alps and Scandinavia shows that a similar cold episode occurred in central Europe but was absent at northern latitudes. The reconstructions also reveal different millennial-scale temperature trends (NEur = - 0.73 degrees C/1000 years, CEur = - 0.13 degrees C, SEur = + 0.23 degrees C) potentially triggered by latitudinal changes in summer insolation due to orbital forcing. These features, the opposing millennial-scale temperature trends and the medieval multi-decadal cooling recorded in Central Europe and the Mediterranean, are not well captured in state-of-the-art climate model simulations.
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| 3. |
- Holmgren, Karin, 1959-, et al.
(author)
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Mediterranean Holocene climate and human societies
- 2014
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In: Past Global Changes Magazine. - : Past Global Changes (PAGES). - 1811-1602 .- 1811-1610 .- 2411-605X .- 2411-9180. ; 22:2, s. 110-110
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 4. |
- Holmgren, Karin, et al.
(author)
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Mediterranean Holocene climate, environment and human societies
- 2016
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In: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 136, s. 1-4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper introduces the reader to a special issue of articles that explores links and processes behind societal change, climate change and environmental change in a Holocene perspective in the Mediterranean region. All papers are, by purpose, co-authored by scientists representing different disciplines. The cross-cutting theme has been to reach beyond simple explanations of potential climate-society relationships and advance our understanding on how to improve research methods and theories in the field. The thirteen papers in this issue address these questions in three different ways, by i) conceptual/methodological approaches; ii) review papers; and iii) case studies.
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| 5. |
- Izdebski, Adam, et al.
(author)
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Realising consilience : How better communication between archaeologists, historians and natural scientists can transform the study of past climate change in the Mediterranean
- 2016
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In: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 136, s. 5-22
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues relevant to the ways in which natural scientists, historians and archaeologists may collaborate in the study of past climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin by discussing the methodologies of these three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, that is, attempts to unify different research methodologies that address similar problems. We demonstrate that there are a number of similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and the natural sciences that deal with the past (palaeoenvironmental sciences), due to their common interest in studying societal and environmental phenomena that no longer exist. The three research traditions, for instance, employ specific narrative structures as a means of communicating research results. We thus present and compare the narratives characteristic of each discipline; in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange, we must first understand how each deals with the societal impacts of climatic change. In the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences in publication cultures, and differing views on the impact of research. Among other recommendations, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim to create a joint publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both inside and outside of academia.
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| 6. |
- Luterbacher, Jürg, et al.
(author)
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Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium : results and insights from instrumental data,documentary evidence and coupled climate models
- 2010
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In: Climatic Change. - Netherlands : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 101:1-2, s. 201-234
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate modelsimulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis(CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulationand European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations.Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHOGand HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better assess documentary data in a quantitative way.
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