| 1. |
- Chang, Kuang Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013. ; 29:15, s. 4298-4312
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH4 source, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH4 year−1) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.
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| 2. |
- Lauerwald, Ronny, et al.
(författare)
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Inland Water Greenhouse Gas Budgets for RECCAP2: 1. State-Of-The-Art of Global Scale Assessments
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 37:5
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inland waters are important emitters of the greenhouse gasses (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. In the framework of the 2nd phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2) initiative, we review the state of the art in estimating inland water GHG budgets at global scale, which has substantially advanced since the first phase of RECCAP nearly 10 years ago. The development of increasingly sophisticated upscaling techniques, including statistical prediction and process-based models, allows for spatially explicit estimates that are needed for regionalized assessments of continental GHG budgets such as those established for RECCAP. A few recent estimates also resolve the seasonal and/or interannual variability in inland water GHG emissions. Nonetheless, the global-scale assessment of inland water emissions remains challenging because of limited spatial and temporal coverage of observations and persisting uncertainties in the abundance and distribution of inland water surface areas. To decrease these uncertainties, more empirical work on the contributions of hot-spots and hot-moments to overall inland water GHG emissions is particularly needed.
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| 3. |
- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(författare)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990-2017
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:5, s. 2307-2362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27 C UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2017. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported to the UN climate convention UNFCCC secretariat in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGIs the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states (MSs) following the recommendations of the IPCC Guidelines. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model-specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g., anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011-2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 TgCH(4) yr (-1) (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 TgCH(4) yr(-1) (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 +/- 1.7 TgCH(4) yr(-1). The estimates of TD total inversions give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher-resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 TgCH(4) yr(-1). Coarser-resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 TgCH(4) yr(-1)) and surface network (24.4 TgCH(4) yr (-1)). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions, and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGIs and inversions and account for 5.2 TgCH(4) yr(-1). For N2O emissions, over the 2011-2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 TgN(2)Oyr(-1), respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 0.6 TgN(2)Oyr(-1)). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 +/- 0.4 and 1.3 +/- 0.1 TgN(2)Oyr(-1), respectively. The TD and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at the EU CUK scale and at the national scale.
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