| 1. |
- Omstedt, Anders, 1949, et al.
(författare)
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Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid-base (pH) and oxygen balances
- 2012
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6509 .- 1600-0889. ; 64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index, and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimize the coming pH decrease and substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.
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| 2. |
- Petrescu, A. M. R., et al.
(författare)
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Modelling CH4 emissions from arctic wetlands : effects of hydrological parameterization
- 2008
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 5:1, s. 111-121
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study compares the CH4 fluxes from two arctic wetland sites of different annual temperatures during 2004 to 2006. The PEATLAND-VU model was used to simulate the emissions. The CH4 module of PEATLAND-VU is based on the Walter-Heimann model. The first site is located in northeast Siberia, Indigirka lowlands, Kytalyk reserve (70 degrees N, 147 degrees E) in a continuous permafrost region with mean annual temperatures of -14.3 degrees C. The other site is Stordalen mire in the eastern part of Lake Tornetrask (68 degrees N, 19 degrees E) ten kilometres east of Abisko, northern Sweden. It is located in a discontinuous permafrost region. Stordalen has a sub arctic climate with a mean annual temperature of -0.7 degrees C. Model input consisted of observed temperature, precipitation and snow cover data. In all cases, modelled CH4 emissions show a direct correlation between variations in water table and soil temperature variations. The differences in CH4 emissions between the two sites are caused by different climate, hydrology, soil physical properties, vegetation type and NPP. For Kytalyk the simulated CH4 fluxes show similar trends during the growing season, having average values for 2004 to 2006 between 1.29-2.09 mg CH4 m(-2) hr(-1). At Stordalen the simulated fluxes show a slightly lower average value for the same years (3.52 mg CH4 m(-2) hr(-1)) than the observed 4.7 mg CH4 m(-2) hr(-1). The effect of the longer growing season at Stordalen is simulated correctly. Our study shows that modelling of arctic CH4 fluxes is improved by adding a relatively simple hydrological model that simulates the water table position from generic weather data. Our results support the generalization in literature that CH4 fluxes in northern wetland are regulated more tightly by water table than temperature. Furthermore, parameter uncertainty at site level in wetland CH4 process models is an important factor in large scale modelling of CH4 fluxes.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Tang, Jing, et al.
(författare)
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Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment : Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 622, s. 260-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales.
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| 5. |
- Yurova, Alla, et al.
(författare)
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Carbon storage in the organic layers of boreal forest soils under various moisture conditions: A model study for Northern Sweden sites
- 2007
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 204:3-4, s. 475-484
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A typical feature of the boreal forest landscape is a gradient from dry to wet sites, with associated increases in the depth of the soil organic layers. In this study, the coupled ecosystem-soil biogeochemistry model GUESS-ROMUL is used to explore how the specific features of soil organic matter decomposition and vegetation dynamics account for an observed difference between the soils formed under contrasting moisture conditions. Two sites, one mesic and one mesic-to-wet, representative of the natural forest in Northern Sweden, are simulated. In addition to the assumptions underlying the GUESS-ROMUL model, it is assumed that the fire frequency was higher at the mesic site. The model shows that with a natural fire regime, the soil organic layers at the mesic-to-wet site store 6.0 kg C m(-2) compared to 3.1 kg C m(-2) at the mesic site. Forty-seven percent of the difference between the sites in this respect is explained by suppressed decomposition under higher moisture conditions, 37% by the decreased litter input into the soil (more frequently disturbed ecosystems have lower productivity) and 16% by direct consumption of the forest floor in fires. It is predicted that due to anthropogenic fire suppression the organic soil layers of mesic sites will, in the future, sequester carbon at an average rate of 0.0103 kg C m(-2) year(-1) and have an equilibrium storage capacity of 5.4 kg C m(-2). For the mesic-to-wet site, the model predicts an extremely slow sequestration rate of 0.0022 kg C m(-2) year(-1). The effect of increased precipitation on the carbon storage at the landscape level is also investigated.
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| 6. |
- Yurova, Alla
(författare)
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Hydrological aspects of the carbon balance in a boreal catchment: A model study
- 2007
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- AbstractThe cycling of carbon in its gaseous, solid and dissolved forms is of central importance to ecosystem science, particularly, when the natural carbon cycle has been perturbed by human activity. Mathematical models are commonly used to asses and predict global and regional patterns of terrestrial carbon exchange. At the same time, processes operating on smaller (sub-grid) scales are usually outside the scope of the large-scale models exploring climate?biosphere interactions. However, if a sub-grid feature is found repeatedly in a large number of particular realizations, we may expect that its characteristic dynamics are likely to be important even at larger scales. This work examines some of these phenomena. First, a boreal landscape differentiated into forests and peatlands is investigated. Second, the export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in peatland streams is assessed.The work described herein mainly addresses methodology, i.e. how approaches to hydrology and ecosystem modelling can be combined. Specifically, the general ecosystem model GUESS was modified and supplied with new modules to be used for peatland simulations. The model was also designed to reproduce soil moisture and related ecosystem properties along a topographical catena. In addition, a completely new model of DOC production, transport and transformation in peat was developed. The data for model development and validation came from boreal catchments in the Vindelns Forest Research Parks, The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Northern Sweden. A relatively good fit between the modelled and measured NEE at the Degerö Stormyr peatland was demonstrated for 2001-2003. Further, the model was used to demonstrate that the NEE was quite insensitive to changes in water table level within the ranges typical for the dominant mire plant community. The newly constructed model was able to reproduce DOC concentrations measured at the outlet of the Kallkälsmyren peatland for 1993-2001. The model suggested that the main drivers for interannual variability in DOC concentrations were the rates of microbially mediated DOC production and mineralization and the flow intensity in the active surface layer of the peatland. The amount of DOC in the peat water at a particular time was mainly determined by (much larger) amounts of soluble carbon sorbed on the peat matrix. A dynamic, rather than static, description of the adsorption and desorption processes was advocated.The work makes some contribution to filling the gap that currently exists between field observations at the plot scale and large-scale model analysis of the climate?biosphere interaction.
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| 7. |
- Yurova, Alla, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling the dissolved organic carbon output from a boreal mire using the convection-dispersion equation: Importance of representing sorption
- 2008
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Ingår i: Water resources research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 44:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we present a model of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and fluxes in mire water based on the convection-dispersion equation. The dynamics of sorbed, potentially soluble organic carbon (SPSOC) in the peat matrix are simulated in parallel with DOC. First, the model is applied solely to stagnant water conditions in order to interpret the results of laboratory peat incubations, with the focus on sorption processes. Some important model parameters are derived using literature data complemented by information from new incubation experiments. Second, the model is fully applied to simulate the DOC concentrations in the outlet of a steam draining a small headwater mire in northern Sweden during the period 1993-2001. A relatively good model fit (mean bias error (MBE) = -0.6-2.2 mg L-1, Willmott index of agreement d > 0.7 for the daily concentrations) was found for all the categories of stream discharge, except periods with very low flow (q < 0.3 mm d(-1)). When seeking explanations for the interannual variability in DOC concentrations, we, like previous authors, could find the influence of temperature, flow path, and intensity. However, the model has helped to demonstrate that the system also has a "memory'': the store of sorbed, potentially soluble organic carbon in a year affects the DOC concentrations and fluxes in the following year.
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| 8. |
- Yurova, Alla, et al.
(författare)
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Variations in net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide in a boreal mire: Modeling mechanisms linked to water table position
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2156-2202 .- 0148-0227. ; 112:G2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- [1] In mires, which occupy large areas of the boreal region, net ecosystem CO2 exchange ( NEE) rates vary significantly over various timescales. In order to examine the effect of one of the most influencing variables, the water table depth, on NEE the general ecosystem model GUESS-ROMUL was modified to predict mire daily CO2 exchange rates. A simulation was conducted for a lawn, the most common microtopographical feature of boreal oligotrophic minerotrophic mires. The results were validated against eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements from Degero Stormyr, northern Sweden, obtained during the period 2001 - 2003. Both measurements and model simulations revealed that CO2 uptake was clearly controlled by interactions between water table depth and temperature. Maximum uptake occurred when the water table level was between 10 and 20 cm and the air temperature was above 15 degrees C. When the water table was higher, the CO2 uptake rate was lower, owing to reduced rates of photosynthetic carbon fixation. When the water table was lower, NEE decreased owing to the increased rate of decomposition of organic matter. When the water table level was between 10 and 20 cm, the NEE was quite stable and relatively insensitive to both changes within this range and any air temperature changes above + 15 degrees C. The optimal water table level range for NEE corresponds to that characteristic of mire lawn plant communities, indicating that the annual NEE will not change dramatically if climatic conditions remain within the optimal range for the current plant community.
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