| 1. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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| 2. |
- Sherwood, S. C., et al.
(författare)
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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
- 2020
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Ingår i: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 58:4
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
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| 3. |
- Cesana, Grégory V., et al.
(författare)
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Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty
- 2024
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Ingår i: Communications Earth & Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 ˚C and reduces inter-model spread.
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| 4. |
- Johnston, Marston Sheldon, 1971, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnosing the average spatio-temporal impact of convective systems – Part 1: A methodology for evaluating climate models
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 13:23, s. 12043-12058
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An earlier method to determine the mean response of upper-tropospheric water to localised deep convective systems (DC systems) is improved and applied to the EC-Earth climate model. Following Zelinka and Hartmann (2009), several fields related to moist processes and radiation from various satellites are composited with respect to the local maxima in rain rate to determine their spatio-temporal evolution with deep convection in the central Pacific Ocean. Major improvements to the earlier study are the isolation of DC systems in time so as to prevent multiple sampling of the same event, and a revised definition of the mean background state that allows for better characterisation of the DC-system-induced anomalies. The observed DC systems in this study propagate westward at similar to 4 ms(-1). Both the upper-tropospheric relative humidity and the outgoing longwave radiation are substantially perturbed over a broad horizontal extent and for periods > 30 h. The cloud fraction anomaly is fairly constant with height but small maximum can be seen around 200 hPa. The cloud ice water content anomaly is mostly confined to pressures greater than 150 hPa and reaches its maximum around 450 hPa, a few hours after the peak convection. Consistent with the large increase in upper-tropospheric cloud ice water content, albedo increases dramatically and persists about 30 h after peak convection. Applying the compositing technique to EC-Earth allows an assessment of the model representation of DC systems. The model captures the large-scale responses, most notably for outgoing longwave radiation, but there are a number of important differences. DC systems appear to propagate east-ward in the model, suggesting a strong link to Kelvin waves instead of equatorial Rossby waves. The diurnal cycle in the model is more pronounced and appears to trigger new convection further to the west each time. Finally, the modelled ice water content anomaly peaks at pressures greater than 500 hPa and in the upper troposphere between 250 hPa and 500 hPa, there is less ice than the observations and it does not persist as long after peak convection. The modelled upper-tropospheric cloud fraction anomaly, however, is of a comparable magnitude and exhibits a similar longevity as the observations.
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| 5. |
- Johnston, Marston Sheldon, 1971, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnosing the average spatio-temporal impact of convective systems - Part 2: A model intercomparison using satellite data
- 2014
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 14:16, s. 8701-8721
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The representation of the effect of tropical deep convective (DC) systems on upper-tropospheric moist processes and outgoing longwave radiation is evaluated in the EC-Earth3, ECHAM6, and CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model) climate models using satellite-retrieved data. A composite technique is applied to thousands of deep convective systems that are identified using local rain rate maxima in order to focus on the temporal evolution of the deep convective processes in the model and satellite-retrieved data. The models tend to over-predict the occurrence of rain rates that are less than approximate to 3 mm h(-1) compared to Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). While the diurnal distribution of oceanic rain rate maxima in the models is similar to the satellite-retrieved data, the land-based maxima are out of phase. Despite having a larger climatological mean uppertropospheric relative humidity, models closely capture the satellite-derived moistening of the upper troposphere following the peak rain rate in the deep convective systems. Simulated cloud fractions near the tropopause are larger than in the satellite data, but the ice water contents are smaller compared with the satellite-retrieved ice data. The models capture the evolution of ocean-based deep convective systems fairly well, but the land-based systems show significant discrepancies. Over land, the diurnal cycle of rain is too intense, with deep convective systems occurring at the same position on subsequent days, while the satellite-retrieved data vary more in timing and geographical location. Finally, simulated outgoing longwave radiation anomalies associated with deep convection are in reasonable agreement with the satellite data, as well as with each other. Given the fact that there are strong disagreements with, for example, cloud ice water content, and cloud fraction, between the models, this study supports the hypothesis that such agreement with satellite-retrieved data is achieved in the three models due to different representations of deep convection processes and compensating errors.
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| 6. |
- Janusek, D., et al.
(författare)
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The roles of mid-myocardial and epicardial cells in T-wave alternans development : a simulation study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Biomedical engineering online. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-925X. ; 17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The occurrence of T-wave alternans in electrocardiographic signals was recently linked to susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Thus, by detecting and comprehending the origins of T-wave alternans, it might be possible to prevent such events.Results: Here, we simulated T-wave alternans in a computer-generated human heart model by modulating the action potential duration and amplitude during the first part of the repolarization phase. We hypothesized that changes in the intracardiac alternans patterns of action potential properties would differentially influence T-wave alternans measurements at the body surface. Specifically, changes were simulated globally in the whole left and right ventricles to simulate concordant T-wave alternans, and locally in selected regions to simulate discordant and regional discordant, hereinafter referred to as “regional”, T-wave alternans. Body surface potential maps and 12-lead electrocardiographic signals were then computed. In depth discrimination, the influence of epicardial layers on T-wave alternans development was significantly higher than that of mid-myocardial cells. Meanwhile, spatial discrimination revealed that discordant and regional action potential property changes had a higher influence on T-wave alternans amplitude than concordant changes. Notably, varying T-wave alternans sources yielded distinct body surface potential map patterns for T-wave alternans amplitude, which can be used for location of regions within hearts exhibiting impaired repolarization. The highest ability for T-wave alternans detection was achieved in lead V1. Ultimately, we proposed new parameters Vector Magnitude Alternans and Vector Angle Alternans, with higher ability for T-wave alternans detection when using multi-lead electrocardiographic signals processing than for single leads. Finally, QT alternans was found to be associated with the process of T-wave alternans generation.Conclusions: The distributions of the body surface T-wave alternans amplitude have been shown to have unique patterns depending on the type of alternans (concordant, discordant or regional) and the location of the disturbance in the heart. The influence of epicardial cells on T-wave alternans development is significantly higher than that of mid-myocardial cells, among which the sub-endocardial layer exerted the highest influence. QT interval alternans is identified as a phenomenon that correlate with T-wave alternans.
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