| 1. |
- Piao, Shilong, et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity.
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy of vegetation productivity, is known to be correlated with temperature in northern ecosystems. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Here we show that above 30°N, the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season NDVI and temperature (partial correlation coefficient RNDVI-GT) declined substantially between 1982 and 2011. This decrease in RNDVI-GT is mainly observed in temperate and arctic ecosystems, and is also partly reproduced by process-based ecosystem model results. In the temperate ecosystem, the decrease in RNDVI-GT coincides with an increase in drought. In the arctic ecosystem, it may be related to a nonlinear response of photosynthesis to temperature, increase of hot extreme days and shrub expansion over grass-dominated tundra. Our results caution the use of results from interannual time scales to constrain the decadal response of plants to ongoing warming.
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| 2. |
- Yang, Hui, et al.
(författare)
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Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. - 2169-8996. ; 120:15, s. 7488-7505
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modeled well in the low and middle latitudes but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore, the 30year trend of discharge is also underestimated. For the interannual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e., models account for 50% of observed interannual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modeling capability, a regional-weighted average of multimodel ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.
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| 3. |
- Dunn, Robert J.H., et al.
(författare)
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Reduction in reversal of global stilling arising from correction to encoding of calm periods
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Communications. - : IOP Publishing. - 2515-7620. ; 4:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe an undocumented change in how calm periods in near-surface wind speed (and direction) observations have been encoded in a subset of global datasets of sub-daily data after 2013. This has resulted in the under-estimation of the number of calm periods for meteorological stations across much of Asia and Europe. Hence average wind speeds after 2013 have been over-estimated, affecting the assessment of changes in global stilling and reversal phenomena after this date. By addressing this encoding change we show that globally, since 2010, wind speeds have recovered by around 30% less than previously thought.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Liu, Yi, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of anemometer changes, site relocations and processing methods on wind speed trends in China
- 2024
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 17, s. 1123-1131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In situ surface wind observation is a critical meteorological data source for various research fields. However, data quality is affected by factors such as surface friction changes, station relocations and anemometer updates. Previous methods to address discontinuities have been insufficient, and processing methods have not always adhered to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Climate Programme guidelines. We analyzed data discontinuity caused by anemometer changes and station relocations in China's daily in situ near-surface (1/410m) wind speed observations and the impact of the processing methods on wind speed trends. By comparing the wind speed discontinuities with the recorded location changes, we identified 90 stations that showed abnormally increasing wind speeds due to relocation. After removing those stations, we followed a standard quality control method recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to improve the data reliability and applied Thiessen polygons to calculate the area-weighted average wind speed. The result shows that China's recent reversal of wind speed was reduced by 41% after removing the problematic stations, with an increasing trend of 0.017ms-1yr-1 (R2Combining double low line0.64, P<0.05), emphasizing the importance of robust quality control and homogenization protocols in wind trend assessments.
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| 6. |
- Piao, Shilong, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 19:7, s. 2117-2132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung etal. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein etal. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 +/- 15Pg Cyr-1) than JU11 (118 +/- 6Pg Cyr-1). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 +/- 0.8Pg Cyr-1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 +/- 1.2 Pg Cyr-1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 +/- 1.5Pg Cyr-1 degrees C-1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 +/- 1.1Pg Cyr-1 degrees C-1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.
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| 7. |
- Wang, Dashan, et al.
(författare)
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The Critical Effect of Subgrid-Scale Scheme on Simulating the Climate Impacts of Deforestation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 126:17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land surface schemes (LSSs) in Earth System Models simulate how vegetation regulates land-atmosphere fluxes of heat, water, carbon, and momentum. Despite advances in the spatial resolution of regional climate modeling, significant land cover changes occured at sub-grid scale still not properly treated. Here, we investigate the response of evapotranspiration, representing the fluxes of heat and water, to deforestation in Southeast Asian Massif by employing three LSSs (Noah mosaic, Noah-MP and Community Land Model (CLM)) with different approaches in representing sub-grid variability, implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two experiments, with and without satellite-observed deforestation, were performed for each scheme. Results show that the simulations are highly sensitive to the subgrid-scale approaches embedded in the LSSs. Compared with the observed historical climate, CLM outperforms other schemes and Noah mosaic shows the largest bias. However, if we target the simulation of the climate impacts of land cover change, the Noah mosaic scheme taking the sub-grid approach can better capture the response of evapotranspiration to deforestation. The NoahMP and CLM schemes underestimate the evapotranspiration response in the grid cells where the dominant land cover type has not changed, but overestimate the response in those grid cells with dominant type changed, which is a characteristic of dominant-grid approach. To improve our understanding of climate impacts induced by fine-scale land cover change, future efforts to better represent subgrid-scale variability and land-atmosphere flux exchange in climate models are desirable.
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| 8. |
- Wang, Xinchi, et al.
(författare)
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High-Resolution Mapping of Ice Cover Changes in Over 33,000 Lakes Across the North Temperate Zone
- 2021
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276. ; 48:18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- More than 50% of global lakes periodically freeze, and their lake ice phenology is sensitive to climate change. However, spatially detailed quantification of the changes in lake ice at the global scale is not available. Here, we map ice cover in >33,000 lakes throughout the North Temperate Zone (23.5°–66.5°N) using 0.55 million Landsat images from 1985 to 2020. Over this period, we found a remarkable reduction in median ice cover occurrence (ICO) (61% to 43%), which was strongly related to warming terrestrial mean surface temperatures (R2 = 0.94, p < 0.05). Lakes in Europe showed the most pronounced ice loss (median ICO decreased from 50% to 24%), and extensive lake ice losses were also detected in the northern US, and central and eastern Asia. An overall increase in ice cover was identified from P2 (1999–2006) to P3 (2007–2014) due to regional decreased temperatures associated with the “global warming hiatus.” Thehigh-resolution mapping of lake ice here provides essentialbaseline information whichcan be used to elucidate ice loss-induced environmental and societal impacts.
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