| 1. |
- Ahlström, Johan, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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Economic potential for substitution of fossil fuels with liquefied biomethane in Swedish iron and steel industry – Synergy and competition with other sectors
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Conversion and Management. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0196-8904 .- 1879-2227. ; 209
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Sweden, the iron and steel industry (ISI) is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Most of the emissions result from the use of fossil reducing agents. Nevertheless, the use of fossil fuels for other purposes must also be eliminated in order to reach the Swedish emissions reduction targets. In this study, we investigate the possibility to replace fossil gaseous and liquid fuels used for heating in the ISI, with liquefied biomethane (LBG) produced through gasification of forest residues. We hypothesize that such utilization of fuels in the Swedish ISI is insufficient to independently drive the development of large-scale LBG production, and that other sectors demanding LBG, e.g., for transportation, can be expected to influence the economic potential for the ISI to switch to LBG. The paper investigates how demand for LBG from other sectors can contribute to, or prevent, a phase-out of fossil fuels used for heating purposes in the ISI under different future energy market scenarios, with additional analysis of the impact of a CO2 emissions charge. A geographically explicit cost-minimizing biofuel production localization model is combined with heat integration and energy market scenario analysis. The results show that from a set of possible future energy market scenarios, none yielded more than a 9% replacement of fossil fuels used for heating purposes in the ISI, and only when there was also a demand for LBG from other sectors. The scenarios corresponding to a more ambitious GHG mitigation policy did not achieve higher adoption of LBG, due to corresponding higher biomass prices. A CO2 charge exceeding 200 EUR/tonCO2 would be required to achieve a full phase-out of fossil fuels used for heating purposes in the ISI. We conclude that with the current policy situation, substitution of fossil fuels by LBG will not be economically feasible for the Swedish ISI.
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| 2. |
- Lundberg, Liv, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of blending mandates on biofuel consumption, production, emission reductions and fuel prices
- 2023
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transport sector accounts for about 20% of EU’s GHG-emissions. Progress in emission reductions has been slow and primarily driven by biofuels promoted through national blending mandates. The mandates differ in whether they are measured in volume, energy, or emission reduction and in how gasoline and diesel are targeted. Due to this, national mandates and their effects have not previously been quantitatively compared on an EU level. In this article we convert the mandates for all EU member states between 2009 and 2020 to a common unit and study their impact on biofuel consumption, production, emission reductions and fuel prices. We find that mandates are driving biofuel consumption in the EU and correlates with emission reductions. Increased mandates have however often been fulfilled by blending biofuels eligible for double counting. We also find that reduction mandates have been effective in encouraging high-performance biofuels. For historical fuel prices, we do not see a clear correlation between countries’ shares of biofuel and consumer fuel prices while the global oil price has a considerable impact. For biofuel production, increased demand drive investments in the EU, but when it comes to localisation of new plants factors such as local infrastructure are more important than national mandates.
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| 3. |
- Lundmark, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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Projekt: En hållbar omställning av energisystemet mot en ökad andel bioenergi
- 2016
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Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- 3 PhD projects: Markets and price formulation (LTU, economics); Technologies and value chains (Chalmers) and; Location and industrial change (LTU, energy engineering). The general system perspective has its starting point in the importance of biomass and bioenergy in the transition to a long-run sustainable energy system and to an efficient spatial resource utilization and production with increased value chains. Focus is on biorefineries. A spatial approach will be applied in combination with national energy system modelling in connection with technological development potentials and industrial applications is linked to the feed-stock supply as well as market and policy issues.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Chuan, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling and Analysis of Oxygen Enrichment to Hot Stoves
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; , s. 5128-5133
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The paper presents some research work on applying the oxygen enrichment technique to hot stoves that was carried out in one European RFCS project. In the presented work, both theoretical and practical work was studied. A dynamic model was used to investigate the effects of oxygen enrichment on hot stoves' performance under the condition that only blast furnace gas was used as the fuel gas. The modelling results showed that SOE will enhance the combustion process in hot stoves by increasing hot blast temperature and shortening the on-gas time, which were further verified by industrial trials performed at an iron-making plant. In addition, CFD modelling was performed by simulating different oxygen levels and lance positions at the burner to avoid the hot spot formation during the combustion.
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| 5. |
- Zetterholm, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic modelling for the hot blast stove
- 2017
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 185, s. 2142-2150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large amount of energy is required in the production of steel where the preheating of blast in the hot blast stoves for iron-making is one of the most energy-intensive processes. To improve the energy efficiency of the steelmaking it is necessary to investigate how to improve the hot blast stove operation. In this work a mathematic model for evaluating the performance of the hot blast stove was developed using a finite difference approximation for the heat transfer inside the stove during operation. The developed model was calibrated and validated by using the process data from hot blast stove V26 at SSABs plant in Oxelösund, Sweden. The investigation shows a good agreement between the measured and modelled data. As a case study, the developed model was used to simulate the effect of a new concept of OxyFuel technique to hot blast stoves. The investigation shows that, by using this OxyFuel technique, it is possible to maintain the blast temperature while removing the usage of coke oven gas (COG). The saved COG can be used to replace some fossil fuel, such as oil and LPG. Furthermore, the effect of the cycle time on the single stove was studied. As expected, both the hot blast and flue gas temperatures are increased when increasing the cycle time. This shows that it is a good strategy for the hot blast stove to increase the blast temperature if the stove is currently not operated with the maximum allowed flue-gas temperature.
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| 6. |
- Zetterholm, Jonas, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Economic Evaluation of Large-Scale Biorefinery Deployment : A Framework Integrating Dynamic Biomass Market and Techno-Economic Models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 12:17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biofuels and biochemicals play significant roles in the transition towards a fossil-free society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance. For evaluating early-stage biorefinery concepts, one needs to consider not only the technical performance and process costs but also the economic performance of the full supply chain and the impacts on feedstock and product markets. This article presents and demonstrates a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can constitute the basis for evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass across sectors, assumes exogenous end-use product demand, and incorporates various geographical and technical constraints. The framework is demonstrated empirically through a case study of a sawmill-integrated biorefinery producing liquefied biomethane from forestry and forest industry residues. The case study results illustrate that acknowledging biomass market effects in the supply chain evaluation implies changes in both biomass prices and the allocation of biomass across sectors. The proposed framework should facilitate the identification of biorefinery concepts with a high economic performance which are robust to feedstock price changes caused by the increase in biomass demand.
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| 7. |
- Zetterholm, Jonas, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating investments in integrated biofuel production - factoring in uncertainty through real options analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: ECOS 2019 - Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems. - : Silesian University of Technology. - 9788361506515 ; , s. 1911-1922
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the endeavour to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector, biofuels from forest industry by-products are key. The adaptation of forest-based biorefinery technologies has so far been low which can partly be attributed to uncertainties in the form of policy instability, market prices, and technology costs. These uncertainties in combination with technology learning, which can be expected to reduce future investment costs, could make it favourable to postpone an investment decision. When applying real options theory, it is recognised that there is an opportunity cost associated with the decision to invest, since the option to wait for more favourable market conditions to occur is forfeited. In traditional discounted cash flow analysis, the impact of uncertainty and the value of reducing it (e.g. by waiting), is usually not taken into consideration. This paper uses a real options framework that incorporates the option to postpone an investment to reduce market uncertainties and wait for technology learning to occur. The focus is to investigate how the usage of an investment decision rule based on real options analysis affects technology choice, the economic performance, and when in time it is favourable to invest in pulp mill integrated biofuel production, compared with using a decision rule based on traditional discounted cash flow analysis. As an illustrative case study we examine a pulp mill which has the option, but not the obligation, to invest in either of two different biofuel production technologies that both use the pulp mill by-product black liquor as feedstock: (1) black liquor gasification followed by fuel synthesis, and (2) membrane separation of lignin followed by hydrodeoxygenation. With the usage of the real options framework and the inclusion of the uncertainties regarding future market prices and investment costs, the decision to invest is made later, compared with using traditional cash flow analysis. The usage of real options also reduces the likeliness of a net loss occurring if an investment is made, as well as increases the expected economic returns, showing the added economic value of flexibility in the face of uncertain future conditions.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Zetterholm, Jonas, 1989-
(författare)
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Evaluation of emerging forest-industry integrated biorefineries : Exploring strategies for robust performance in face of future uncertainties
- 2021
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Biorefineries have been promoted to reduce dependency on fossil resources, increase self-sufficiency, and revitalise rural areas. Commercial deployment of forest-based biorefineries has been slow, although academic research has identified several technology options as promising in terms of both costs and resource usage. The low deployment of forest-based biorefinery technologies can be attributed to technology-specific (such as capital cost, process immaturities, and scale-up challenges) or market related (such as biomass and fuel prices, and lack of long-term stable legislation) barriers. The economic and greenhouse gas (GHG) performance of emerging forest-based biorefineries will be highly affected by the assumed characteristics of the surrounding system, such as the assumed energy prices and reference GHG emissions. Future energy prices and policy landscapes are highly uncertain, and, additionally, a successful commercialisation of biorefineries can be expected to have a substantial impact on biomass prices. To fully assess the future performance of emerging biorefinery concepts, these future uncertainties need to be incorporated in the evaluation to identify robust biorefinery concepts that have a high performance for a large set of future market developments. The performance of biorefinery concepts is often assessed using techno-economic approaches, typically using the system boundaries either around the plant, or using a larger geographical area, depending on the scope of the study. The choice of system boundary affects the appropriate methodological choices for the assessment and will depend on the perspective of the evaluation.This thesis examines the performance of emerging forest industry integrated biorefinery concepts in terms of economy, GHG mitigation potential, and policy support requirement. The aim is to explore strategies to help identify biorefinery concepts with a robust performance considering plant-level design choices and surrounding economic uncertainties. Two perspectives are adopted and compared; i) the performance as seen by a plant-owner, related to the economic performance required for investments to occur, and ii) the performance as seen by a policymaker, related to the cost and impact of implementing the technology on a national level. Biorefinery concepts based on thermochemical conversion technologies are investigated, as they are well suited to a wide variety of residual feedstocks from the forest.The results show that the production capacity of the biorefinery has a major impact on the economic performance due to economy-of-scale effects. Very large facilities can, from a policymaker perspective, constitute a way to enable a cost-efficient large-scale deployment of biorefineries, while they are not necessary favoured from a plant-owner perspective. This is due to the cost structure of the large-scale deployment of biorefineries, and the division of costs between the plant-owner and other actors in the system.Traditional techno-economic approaches can be insufficient to identify promising technology configurations considering the wide array of future economic conditions and uncertainties faced by both plant-owners and policymakers. To make any conclusive judgement of the future performance of emerging technologies and investments that can be in operation for more than 20 years, future market developments must be considered. In this thesis, traditional techno-economic analysis is complemented with additional approaches to gain further understanding regarding the future performance of biorefineries. The combined approaches provide complementary insights regarding likely ranges of the future performance depending on future policy ambition levels, as well as impacts of changed biomass prices resulting from the large-scale introduction of biorefineries.The combined approaches also highlight that, from an economic rationale perspective, policy uncertainty is, in fact, not a major contributor to postponed investments in emerging forest industry-integrated biorefineries. Despite this, the overall results show that most of the examined forest-industry integrated biorefinery concepts would require substantial policy support to become financially viable. A complicating factor is that increased policy support premiering the use of renewable fuels will likely decrease the future prices for the fossil alternatives due to the reduced demand.This thesis demonstrates that in order to identify robust biorefinery concepts, a multifaceted approach is required to be able to fully capture the interplay between biorefinery configurations and economic performance in face of future uncertainties. Firstly, the plant-owner needs a high probability of a profitable investment; otherwise, investments will not occur. Secondly, for the policymaker, high GHG performance is required, while the cost for large-scale deployment of biorefineries for the entire energy system needs to be kept low. These different objectives can sometimes be at odds with each other, and the policymaker must thus create market incentives that simultaneously premier investments in biorefinery configurations, and benefits the entire energy system.
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| 10. |
- Zetterholm, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of value chain configurations for fast pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass - Integration, feedstock, and product choice
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 144, s. 564-575
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fast pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass constitutes a promising technology to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The product, pyrolysis liquids, can either substitute heavy fuel oil directly, or be upgraded via e.g. hydroprocessing to diesel and petrol. This study presents a systematic evaluation of production costs and CO2 mitigation potentials of different fast pyrolysis value chain configurations. The evaluation considers types of localisations, emissions from electricity and hydrogen production, biomass feedstocks, and final products. The resulting production costs were found to be in the range of 36–60 EUR/MWh for crude pyrolysis liquids, and 61–90 EUR/MWh upgraded to diesel and petrol. Industrial integration was found to be favoured. The CO2 mitigation potential for the pyrolysis liquids was in the range of 187–282 t-CO2/GWh biomass. High variations were found when upgraded to diesel and petrol –best-case scenario resulted in a mitigation of 347 t-CO2/GWh biomass, while worst-case scenarios resulted in net CO2 emissions. Favourable policy support, continued technology development, and/or increased fossil fuel prices are required for the technology to be adapted on an industrial scale. It was concluded that integration with existing industrial infrastructure can contribute to cost reductions and thus help enable the transformation of traditional forest industry into biorefineries.
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