| 1. |
- Andres-Martin, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF-RCM
- 2023
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Ingår i: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. - 0077-8923 .- 1749-6632. ; 1529:1, s. 101-108
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985–2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under highshared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.
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| 2. |
- Chuan, Ting, et al.
(författare)
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Asynchronous changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed among regions across China from 1973 to 2017
- 2024
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - 0169-8095. ; 300
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the characteristics and causes of asynchronous changes in near-surface wind speed (NSWS) improves the ability of climate projection, but yet to be comprehended are the asynchronous features in NSWS and possible causes over China. In this study, the asynchronous variations in NSWS among regions are considerable across China. The non-synchronization of variations in intra-annual NSWS was manifested in the amplitudes and periods of NSWS. The amplitudes and periods of intra-annual NSWS among regions were in the ranges of 0.08–0.20 m s−1 and 0.24–0.32 years, respectively. The intra-annual changes in NSWS in different regions were influenced by different large–scale ocean–atmosphere circulations (LOACs). The non-synchronization of variations in interannual NSWS was also manifested in the amplitudes and periods of NSWS, and the strongest and weakest interannual variations in NSWS occurred over northeast and northwest China. The interannual variations in NSWS could be induced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At intra-annual and interannual scales, LOACs mainly controlled the changes in the phase of NSWS, which could not be responsible for the amplitudes of NSWS. The interdecadal NSWS also showed regional differences, and it mainly exhibited an increase after the 1990s in all regions except for South China. The interdecadal changes in NSWS among regions were also dominated by LOACs, which contributed reached 50.0% to the NSWS changes. Furthermore, the LOACs dominated not only the changes in the phase of interdecadal NSWS but also the changes in amplitudes of interdecadal NSWS.
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| 3. |
- Deng, Kaiqiang, et al.
(författare)
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The offshore wind speed changes in China: an insight into CMIP6 model simulation and future projections
- 2024
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Ingår i: CLIMATE DYNAMICS. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Offshore wind speed in China plays a key role in affecting air-sea interactions, coastal tides, and wind energy, but its changes in a warming climate and the associated causes remain unclear. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, this study evaluates the past and future variations of wind speed at 10 m (WS10) over China's offshore seas in summer and winter. The results show that the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs well in simulating the climatological patterns (1981-2010) of WS10 for both seasons. The trends and leading variabilities in WS10 are also reasonably reproduced in the South China Sea (SCS). In the northern SCS, WS10 has strengthened during both seasons in the recent decades. In contrast, in the East China Sea (ECS), WS10 has increased (decreased) during summer (winter). Further attribution analysis suggests that the forcing of greenhouse gasses (aerosols) may make WS10 stronger (weaker) in the two seas and for both seasons, while natural variability tends to slow down (speed up) WS10 in the SCS and ECS during summer (winter). In addition, according to the CMIP6 model projections under various warming scenarios, WS10 is likely to increase over both the northern SCS and the ECS in summer, while WS10 will increase over the northern SCS but decrease over the ECS in winter. Differences in the projected WS10 changes in the ECS during summer and winter are attributed to the projected intensification (weakening) of the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation.
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| 4. |
- Liu, Wanlei, et al.
(författare)
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Rapid Acceleration of Arctic Near-Surface Wind Speed in a Warming Climate
- 2024
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Ingår i: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 51:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic near-surface wind speed (NWS) plays an increasingly crucial role in influencing the local air-sea interactions and the safety of trans-Arctic shipping, but its potential changes in a warming climate and underlying causes remain unclear. Using reanalysis and model simulation data sets, we reveal that the Arctic NWS has increased remarkably since the 1960s, with the strongest increase in the Arctic Ocean surface. We propose that the acceleration of Arctic NWS is primarily driven by reduced stability in the lower troposphere due to increased upward heat fluxes and decreased surface roughness owing to the losses of Arctic glaciers and sea ice in a warming climate. In addition, the coupled climate models project a robust increase in the Arctic NWS under various warming scenarios during the 21st century, especially in the vicinity of the Kara Sea and the Beaufort Sea. The speed at which wind blows near the surface in the Arctic is important for understanding local air-sea interactions and ensuring the safety of ships traveling across the region. However, how and why Arctic wind speeds are changing in a warming climate remains unclear. Using a combination of data analysis and model simulations, we found that the wind speed in the Arctic overall had been markedly increasing since the 1960s, especially over the sea. This increase in wind speed seems to have mainly been caused by human-induced warming, whereby more heat is transferred into the air making the lower part of the atmosphere less stable. In addition, the melting of glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic has made the surface smoother, helping wind to blow faster. Models used to project future climate change reveal that the wind in the Arctic is simulated to increase further, especially in certain areas such as the Kara Sea and the Beaufort Sea. Reanalyzes and CMIP6 model simulations show increasing near-surface wind speed (NWS) in the Arctic region since 1960s Decreases in surface roughness and atmospheric stability could contribute to the increasing Arctic NWS CMIP6 models project a continued increase in the Arctic NWS in various future warming scenarios
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| 5. |
- Zha, Jinlin, et al.
(författare)
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Attribution of Terrestrial Near-Surface Wind Speed Changes Across China at a Centennial Scale
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Near-surface wind speed (NSWS) over China shows multiple time-scale changes at a centennial scale, but the contributions of internal variability (IV), anthropogenic forcing (ANT), and natural forcing (NAT) to those changes remain unknown. This study investigated the contributions of IV, ANT, and NAT to NSWS changes at a centennial scale. Results show that the NSWS changes were attributed mainly to IV. IV not only modulated the interannual changes in NSWS but also determined the interdecadal transition in NSWS. The relative contributions of IV to the interannual and decadal NSWS exceeded 75.0%. ANT contributed particularly to the long-term reduction in NSWS; especially, it has contributed 55.0% of the reduction in NSWS since 1957, serving as the major contributor to the reduction in NSWS. NAT had a small-to-negligible effect on China's NSWS throughout the study period. This study enhances our understanding of NSWS changes at different time scales.
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