| 1. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 2. |
- Guo, Donglin, et al.
(författare)
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Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 120:36
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth's past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near-surface (similar to 3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, similar to 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 +/- 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.
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| 3. |
- Hou, Yandong, et al.
(författare)
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Sahara's surface transformation forced an abrupt hydroclimate decline and Neolithic culture transition in northern China
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Innovation. - 2666-6758. ; 5:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The remote forcing from land surface changes in the Sahara is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) through ocean-atmospheric teleconnections. This modu-lation has far-reaching consequences, particularly in facilitating societal shifts documented in northern China. Here, we present a well-dated lake-level record from the Daihai Lake Basin in northern China, providing quantitative assessments of Holocene monsoonal precipitation and the consequent mi-grations of the northern boundary of the EASM. Our reconstruction, informed by a water-and-energy balance model, indicates that annual precipitation reached -700 mm during 8-5 ka, followed by a rapid decline to -550 mm be-tween 5 and 4 ka. This shift coherently aligns with a significant -300 km northwestward movement of the EASM northern boundary during the Middle Holocene (MH), in contrast to its current position. Our findings underscore that these changes cannot be entirely attributed to orbital forcing, as corrob-orated by simulation tests. Climate model simulations deployed in our study suggest that the presence of the Green Sahara during the MH significantly strengthened the EASM and led to a northward shift of the monsoon rainfall belt. Conversely, the Sahara's reversion to a desert landscape in the late Ho-locene was accompanied by a corresponding southward retraction of monsoon influence. These dramatic hydroclimate changes during -5-4 ka likely triggered or at least contributed to a shift in Neolithic cultures and societal transformation in northern China. With decreasing agricultural pro-ductivity, communities transitioned from millet farming to a mixed rainfed agriculture and animal husbandry system. Thus, our findings elucidate not only the variability of the EASM but also the profound implications of a remote forcing, such as surface transformations of the Sahara, on climatic changes and cultural evolution in northern China.
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| 4. |
- Ren, Xin, et al.
(författare)
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The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene : results from PlioMIP2
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:10, s. 2053-2077
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial.In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.
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| 5. |
- Axelsson, Josefine, 1992-
(författare)
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Interglacial climates in proxies and models : Utilizing sampled oxygen isotopes and model simulations to understand past Indian summer monsoon variability
- 2024
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The study of Earth's climate system, including the mechanisms driving monsoon systems, is a key area of research within environmental sciences. Monsoons, vital for billions of people, are complex atmospheric phenomena influenced by various global factors, including orbital changes and natural climate variability. Among monsoon systems, the Indian summer Monsoon (ISM) is of particular interest due to its significant impact on the South Asian climate, agriculture, and water resources. Despite extensive study, comprehending the ISM's historical variability and its future implications remains a challenge. Utilizing natural archives like speleothems, along with stable water isotopes from precipitation and advanced climate model simulations, this thesis aims to decipher the ISM's responses to natural forcings across key interglacial periods—the Last Interglacial and the Holocene.Our findings indicate that the ISM's strength is critically influenced by slight variations in orbital configurations, leading to significant shifts in monsoon patterns. Our research also highlights the dual influence of local geographical features and distant atmospheric conditions on the ISM's annual variability. Most notably, we observed discrepancies between δ18O values obtained from isotope-enabled climate models and those derived from speleothems. This insight indicates that the models need refinement to accurately mirror the complexities observed in the proxy records and that the uncertainty parameter in speleothem records needs to be improved.The alignment between proxy and model data is crucial for a more accurate reconstruction of past climates and for enhancing the predictive capabilities of future monsoon behavior under changing climatic conditions. By advancing our knowledge of the ISM's past, we are better equipped to anticipate its future. To achieve that, this thesis stresses the importance of bridging the gap between proxy data insights and climate model simulations. This would not only enrich our historical climate knowledge but also inform future climate projections, highlighting the indispensable role of interdisciplinary research in climate science challenges.
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| 6. |
- Bian, Jianpu, et al.
(författare)
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Mechanisms for African easterly wave changes in simulations of the mid-Holocene
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 61:7-8, s. 3165-3178
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Holocene was a warm period with significantly amplified precipitation in North Africa, and a northward shifted Western African Monsoon during boreal summer. We conduct simulations for the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods to investigate the connection between summer rainfall variability and changes of African easterly waves (AEWs) during the mid-Holocene. Summer rainfall increases and migrates northward during the mid-Holocene, but the magnitude of change fails to reconcile the discrepancy with mid-Holocene proxy evidence, possibly due to no prescribed vegetation change in our simulations. The spectrum of summer rainfall over the Sahel and West Africa reveals enhanced synoptic time scale (3-to-6 days) variability during the mid-Holocene, which is consistent with the enhanced AEW activity influence. Specifically, the southern AEW track strengthens and migrates poleward during the mid-Holocene period, which modulates summer rainfall over the Sahel and West Africa. By comparison, the northern AEW track changes less and produces a minor contribution to rainfall changes in those regions. We find enhanced baroclinic and barotropic instabilities to promote the AEW activity during the mid-Holocene, with a doubling of the eddy kinetic energy of the meridional wind from that in PI, and baroclinic energy conversion plays a more important role. Stronger low-level meridional thermal gradients increase moisture flux from the Atlantic Ocean to inland.The amplified AEW activity, together with promoted moist convection and increased precipitation, results in a northern shift of the summer rainfall band during the mid-Holocene.
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| 7. |
- Cao, Ning, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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The role of internal feedbacks in sustaining multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation revealed by EC-Earth3-LR simulations
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - 0012-821X .- 1385-013X. ; 621
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant multi-centennial climate variability with a distinct peak at approximately 200 years is observed in a pre-industrial (PI) control simulation using the EC-Earth3-LR climate model. This oscillation originates predominately from the North Atlantic and displays a strong association with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our study identifies the interplay between salinity advection feedback and vertical mixing in the subpolar North Atlantic as key roles in providing the continues internal energy source to maintain this multi-centennial oscillation. The perturbation flow of mean subtropical-subpolar salinity gradients serves as positive feedback to sustain the AMOC anomaly, while the mean advection of salinity anomalies and the vertical mixing or convection acts as negative feedback, constraining the AMOC anomaly. Notably, this low-frequency variability persists even in a warmer climate with weakened AMOC, emphasizing the robustness of the salinity advection feedback mechanism.
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| 8. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of Mid-Pliocene Ice Sheets and Vegetation on Afro-Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Revealed by EC-Earth Simulations
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 51:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of mid-Pliocene boundary conditions on Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall is examined using the fully coupled Earth System Model EC-Earth3-LR. Our focus lies on the effects of varying CO2 concentration, diminished ice sheets and vegetation dynamics. We find that the enhanced AfroASM rainfall is predominantly caused by the “warmer-gets-wetter” mechanism due to elevated CO2 levels. Additionally, the ice sheet, similar in size to that of the mid-Pliocene era, creates several indirect effects. These include sea ice-albedo feedback and inter-hemispheric atmosphere energy transport. Such influences result in the southward shift of Hadley circulation and formation of Pacific-Japan pattern, leading to reduced rainfall in North African and South Asian monsoon regions but increased rainfall in East Asian monsoon region. Interestingly, while dynamic vegetation feedback has a minimal direct effect on AfroASM rainfall, it significantly influences rainfall in the mid-high latitudes of the North Hemisphere by enhancing water vapor feedback.
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| 9. |
- Hällberg, Petter, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Branched GDGT source shift identification allows improved reconstruction of an 8,000-year warming trend on Sumatra
- 2023
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Ingår i: Organic Geochemistry. - 0146-6380 .- 1873-5290. ; 186
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Branched Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers (brGDGTs) in sedimentary archives are increasingly used for paleotemperature reconstructions due to their strong correlation with mean annual air temperature. However, environmental factors can influence the brGDGT producing bacterial community, potentially affecting the brGDGT-temperature relationship and introducing fundamental errors in reconstructions. Here we assess the reliability of the methylation index of brGDGTs (MBT ' 5ME) in sediments as a paleotemperature proxy by tracking provenance differences based on brGDGT fractional abundances in a short lake core, two peat cores and surface soils on Sumatra (n = 333 in total). Then, we attempt to reconstruct the Holocene paleotemperatures on Sumatra using the two peat cores. Our results indicate distinct brGDGT and H-shaped brGDGT (H-GDGT) compositions in soil, lake and peat environments, suggesting production by different bacterial communities. We introduce a new index, the isomerization of H-GDGTs (IRH) that can distinguish between these environments. In an 11,000-year long peat core from Diatas, we find that brGDGT composition changes are dominated by bacterial community shifts rather than temperature changes. In contrast, a core from the nearby Padang peatland can be robustly used for a brGDGT-based paleotemperature reconstruction since there are no signs of past environmental or brGDGT source shifts. The results from Padang indicate a gradual warming trend over the past 8,000 years, consistent with climate model simulations and nearby sea surface temperature reconstructions. However, current MBT ' 5ME calibrations yield larger warming trends compared to simulations and other proxy studies, suggesting the need for tropical and/or peat-specific brGDGT temperature calibrations. Our findings demonstrate the importance of assessing environmental shifts and bacterial source community changes when employing brGDGT paleothermometry. The methodological framework outlined in this study can be used in future research for reliable down-core brGDGT temperature reconstructions. Our proxy reconstruction over the past 8,000 years offers novel insights into the Holocene temperature evolution from a region with low climate seasonality.
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| 10. |
- Lin, Fangyuan, 1996-, et al.
(författare)
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Seasonal to decadal variations of precipitation oxygen isotopes in northern China linked to the moisture source
- 2024
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Ingår i: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. - 2397-3722. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A precise characterization of moisture source and transport dynamics over the inland margins of monsoonal China is crucial for understanding the climatic significance of precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Op) variability preserved in the regional proxy archives. Here, we use a general circulation model with an embedded water-tagging module to quantify the role of moisture dynamics on the seasonal to decadal variations of δ18Op in northern China. Our data indicate that during the non-monsoon season, the δ18Op variability is dominated by the temperature effect. Conversely, in the summer monsoon season, the moisture contributions from the low-latitude land areas (LLA), the Pacific Ocean (PO), and the North Indian Ocean (NIO) override the temperature effect and influence the summer δ18Op. Intensified upstream convection along the NIO moisture transport pathway results in a more negative summer δ18Op compared to moisture transported from the PO and LLA regions. Our analysis shows a decadal shift in summer δ18Op around the mid-1980s, marking changes in the relative contribution of oceanic moisture from PO and NIO in response to changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We suggest that such decadal-scale δ18Op variability can be recorded in the natural archives from the region, which can provide valuable insights into understanding past climate variability.
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