| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the climate in 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earth’s surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series.
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| 3. |
- Welsh, Joshua A., et al.
(författare)
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Minimal information for studies of extracellular vesicles (MISEV2023): From basic to advanced approaches
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Extracellular Vesicles. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc. - 2001-3078. ; 13:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extracellular vesicles (EVs), through their complex cargo, can reflect the state of their cell of origin and change the functions and phenotypes of other cells. These features indicate strong biomarker and therapeutic potential and have generated broad interest, as evidenced by the steady year-on-year increase in the numbers of scientific publications about EVs. Important advances have been made in EV metrology and in understanding and applying EV biology. However, hurdles remain to realising the potential of EVs in domains ranging from basic biology to clinical applications due to challenges in EV nomenclature, separation from non-vesicular extracellular particles, characterisation and functional studies. To address the challenges and opportunities in this rapidly evolving field, the International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) updates its ‘Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles’, which was first published in 2014 and then in 2018 as MISEV2014 and MISEV2018, respectively. The goal of the current document, MISEV2023, is to provide researchers with an updated snapshot of available approaches and their advantages and limitations for production, separation and characterisation of EVs from multiple sources, including cell culture, body fluids and solid tissues. In addition to presenting the latest state of the art in basic principles of EV research, this document also covers advanced techniques and approaches that are currently expanding the boundaries of the field. MISEV2023 also includes new sections on EV release and uptake and a brief discussion of in vivo approaches to study EVs. Compiling feedback from ISEV expert task forces and more than 1000 researchers, this document conveys the current state of EV research to facilitate robust scientific discoveries and move the field forward even more rapidly.
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| 4. |
- Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1522-9645 .- 0195-668X. ; 40:23, s. 1850-1858
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.6% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).
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| 5. |
- Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 43:32, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. Methods and results: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: Age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.3% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).
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| 6. |
- Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy : A Multinational Collaboration
- 2021
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Ingår i: Circulation: Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 1941-3149 .- 1941-3084. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). A model was recently developed to predict incident sustained VA in patients with ARVC. However, since this outcome may overestimate the risk for SCD, we aimed to specifically predict life-threatening VA (LTVA) as a closer surrogate for SCD. Methods: We assembled a retrospective cohort of definite ARVC cases from 15 centers in North America and Europe. Association of 8 prespecified clinical predictors with LTVA (SCD, aborted SCD, sustained, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia >250 beats per minute) in follow-up was assessed by Cox regression with backward selection. Candidate variables included age, sex, prior sustained VA (≥30s, hemodynamically unstable, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia; or aborted SCD), syncope, 24-hour premature ventricular complexes count, the number of anterior and inferior leads with T-wave inversion, left and right ventricular ejection fraction. The resulting model was internally validated using bootstrapping. Results: A total of 864 patients with definite ARVC (40±16 years; 53% male) were included. Over 5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77-10.58) of follow-up, 93 (10.8%) patients experienced LTVA including 15 with SCD/aborted SCD (1.7%). Of the 8 prespecified clinical predictors, only 4 (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) were associated with LTVA. Notably, prior sustained VA did not predict subsequent LTVA (P=0.850). A model including only these 4 predictors had an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) and calibration slope of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) indicating minimal over-optimism. Conclusions: LTVA events in patients with ARVC can be predicted by a novel simple prediction model using only 4 clinical predictors. Prior sustained VA and the extent of functional heart disease are not associated with subsequent LTVA events.
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| 7. |
- Hale, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Chemical, Biological, and Physical Aging As Well As Soil Addition on the Sorption of Pyrene to Activated Carbon and Biochar
- 2011
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 45:24, s. 10445-10453
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, the suitability of biochar and activated carbon (AC) for contaminated soil remediation is investigated by determining the sorption of pyrene to both materials in the presence and absence of soil and before as well as after aging. Biochar and AC were aged either alone or mixed with soil via exposure to (a) nutrients and microorganisms (biological), (b) 60 and 110 degrees C (chemical), and (c) freeze-thaw cycles (physical). Before and after aging, the pH, elemental composition, cation exchange capacity (CEC), microporous SA, and sorption isotherms of pyrene were quantified. Aging at 110 degrees C altered the physicochemical properties of all materials to the greatest extent (for example, pH increased by up to three units and CEC by up to 50% for biochar). Logarithmic K(Fr) values ranged from 7.80 to 8.21 (ng kg(-1)) (ng L(-1))(-nF) for AC and 5.22 to 6.21 (ng kg(-1))(ng L(-1))(-nF) for biochar after the various aging regimes. Grinding biochar to a smaller particle size did not significantly affect the sorption of d(10) pyrene, implying that sorption processes operate on the subparticle scale. Chemical aging decreased the sorption of pyrene to the greatest extent (up to 1.8 log unit for the biochar+soil). The sorption to AC was affected more by the presence of soil than the sorption to biochar was. Our results suggest that AC and biochar have a high sorption capacity for pyrene that is maintained both in the presence of soil and during harsh aging. Both materials could therefore be considered in contaminated land remediation.
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| 8. |
- Hale, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying the Total and Bioavailable Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Dioxins in Biochars
- 2012
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - Washington, DC : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 46:5, s. 2830-2838
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biochar soil amendment is advocated to mitigate climate change and improve soil fertility. A concern though, is that during biochar preparation PAHs and dioxins are likely formed. These contaminants can possibly be present in the biochar matrix and even bioavailable to exposed organisms. Here we quantify total and bioavailable PAHs and dioxins in a suite of over 50 biochars produced via slow pyrolysis between 250 and 900 degrees C, using various methods and biomass from tropical, boreal, and temperate areas. These slow pyrolysis biochars, which can be produced locally on farms with minimum resources, are also compared to biochar produced using the industrial methods of fast pyrolysis and gasification. Total concentrations were measured with a Soxhlet extraction and bioavailable concentrations were measured with polyoxymethylene passive samplers. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 0.07 mu g g(-1) to 3.27 mu g g(-1) for the slow pyrolysis biochars and were dependent on biomass source, pyrolysis temperature, and time. With increasing pyrolysis time and temperature, PAH concentrations generally decreased. These total concentrations were below existing environmental quality standards for concentrations of PAHs in soils. Total PAH concentrations in the fast pyrolysis and gasification biochar were 0.3 mu g g(-1) and 45 mu g g(-1), respectively, with maximum levels exceeding some quality standards. Concentrations of bioavailable PAHs in slow pyrolysis biochars ranged from 0.17 ng L-1 to 10.0 ng L-1 which is lower than concentrations reported for relatively clean urban sediments. The gasification produced biochar sample had the highest bioavailable concentration (162 +/- 71 ng L-1). Total dioxin concentrations were low (up to 92 mu g g(-1)) and bioavailable concentrations were below the analytical limit of detection. No clear pattern of how strongly PAHs were bound to different biochars was found based on the biochars' physicochemical properties.
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| 9. |
- Hale, Sarah E., et al.
(författare)
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Sorption of the monoterpenes alpha-pinene and limonene to carbonaceous geosorbents including biochar
- 2015
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Ingår i: Chemosphere. - : Elsevier BV. - 0045-6535 .- 1879-1298. ; 119, s. 881-888
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The sorption of two monoterpenes, alpha pinene and limonene to the carbonaceous geosorbents graphite, bituminous coal, lignite coke, biochar and Pahokee peat was quantified. Polyethylene (PE) passive samplers were calibrated for the first time for these compounds by determining the PE-water partitioning coefficients and used as a tool to determine sorption to the carbonaceous geosorbents. Log KPE-water values were 3.49 +/- 0.58 for alpha pinene and 4.08 +/- 0.27 for limonene. The sorption of limonene to all materials was stronger than that for a pinene (differences of 0.2-13 log units between distribution coefficients for the monoterpenes). Placing K-d values in increasing order for a pinene gave biochar approximate to Pahokee peat approximate to bituminous coal approximate to lignite coke < graphite. For limonene the order was: Pahokee peat approximate to biochar approximate to bituminous coal < graphite approximate to lignite coke. Micropore (defined as pores <1.5 nm) and nanopore surface area (defined as pores 1.5 nm to 50 nm) normalised carbonaceous geosorbent-water distribution coefficients were also calculated. There was no clear correlation of these distribution coefficients with SA. Elemental composition was used to assess the degree of condensation (or alteration) of the carbonaceous geosorbents. The degree of carbonisation increased in the order; Pahokee peat < lignite coke < bituminous coal < biochar < graphite, however this was not correlated with an increase in the experimental distribution coefficients.
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| 10. |
- Kupryianchyk, Darya, et al.
(författare)
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Sorption of hydrophobic organic compounds to a diverse suite of carbonaceous materials with emphasis on biochar
- 2016
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Ingår i: Chemosphere. - : Elsevier. - 0045-6535 .- 1879-1298. ; 144, s. 879-887
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Carbonaceous materials like biochars are increasingly recognized as effective sorbent materials for sequestering organic pollutants. Here, we study sorption behavior of two common hydrophobic organic contaminants 2,2',5,5'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (CB52) and phenanthrene (PHE), on biochars and other carbonaceous materials (CM) produced at a wide range of conditions and temperatures from various feedstocks. The primary aim was to establish structure–reactivity relationships responsible for the observed variation in CM and biochar sorption characteristics. CM were characterized for their elemental composition, surface area, pore size distribution, aromaticity and thermal stability. Freundlich sorption coefficients for CB52 and PHE (i.e. LogKF,CB52 and KF,PHE, respectively) to CM showed a variation of two to three orders of magnitude, with LogKF,CB52 ranging from 5.12 ± 0.38 to 8.01 ± 0.18 and LogKF,PHE from 5.18 ± 0.09 to 7.42 ± 1.09. The highest LogKF values were observed for the activated CM, however, non-activated biochars produced at high temperatures (>700 °C) sorbed almost as strongly (within 0.2–0.5 Log units) as the activated ones. Sorption coefficients significantly increased with pyrolysis temperature, CM surface area and pore volume, aromaticity, and thermal stability, and decreased with H/C, O/C, (O + N)/C content. The results of our study contribute to the understanding of processes underlying HOC sorption to CM and explore the potential of CM as engineered sorbents for environmental applications.
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