| 1. |
- Abbasi, Rasha, et al.
(författare)
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IceCube search for neutrinos from GRB 221009A
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 38th International Cosmic Ray Conference - PoS(ICRC 2023). - : Sissa Medialab. ; , s. 1511-
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- GRB 221009A is the brightest Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) ever observed. The observed extremelyhigh flux of high and very-high-energy photons provide a unique opportunity to probe the predictedneutrino counterpart to the electromagnetic emission. We have used a variety of methods to searchfor neutrinos in coincidence with the GRB over several time windows during the precursor, promptand afterglow phases of the GRB. MeV scale neutrinos are studied using photo-multiplier ratescalers which are normally used to search for galactic core-collapse supernovae neutrinos. GeVneutrinos are searched starting with DeepCore triggers. These events don’t have directionallocalization, but instead can indicate an excess in the rate of events. 10 GeV - 1 TeV and >TeVneutrinos are searched using traditional neutrino point source methods which take into accountthe direction and time of events with DeepCore and the entire IceCube detector respectively. The>TeV results include both a fast-response analysis conducted by IceCube in real-time with timewindows of T0 − 1 to T0 + 2 hours and T0 ± 1 day around the time of GRB 221009A, as well asan offline analysis with 3 new time windows up to a time window of T0 − 1 to T0 + 14 days, thelongest time period we consider. The combination of observations by IceCube covers 9 ordersof magnitude in neutrino energy, from MeV to PeV, placing upper limits across the range forpredicted neutrino emission.
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| 2. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the climate in 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earth’s surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Ankori-Karlinsky, Roi, et al.
(författare)
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Chronic Winds Reduce Tropical Forest Structural Complexity Regardless of Climate, Topography, or Forest Age
- 2024
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Ingår i: Ecosystems. - : Springer. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 27:3, s. 479-491
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tropical forests are the world’s most structurally complex ecosystems, providing key functions like biomass accumulation, which is linked to this complexity. Tropical forests are also exposed to chronic, non-severe winds, yet their effect on forest structural complexity is understudied. Here we examine drivers of forest structural complexity in Puerto Rico with a particular focus on chronic wind exposure. We used airborne light detection and ranging data collected in 2016 to quantify canopy height and rugosity (variation in height) in ~ 20,000, 0.28 ha forested sites stratified by forest age. We used random forest models to analyze variation in canopy height and rugosity as a function of chronic wind exposure, forest age, mean annual precipitation, elevation, slope (in degrees), soil type, soil available water storage, and exposure to a previous hurricane. Canopy height was driven by precipitation, forest age, and chronic wind exposure, decreasing by 2.12 m (16%) on average in wind-exposed forests across all forest ages. Canopy height increased by 4.0 m (41%) on average in forests aged 25–66 years, and by 4.0 m between sites with 1000 and 2000 mm y−1 precipitation. Canopy rugosity was driven by canopy height, precipitation, forest age, and elevation, increasing log-linearly with canopy height and precipitation, decreasing with elevation, and was highest in younger forests. Chronic wind exposure did not drive variation in canopy rugosity. Our results suggest that chronic wind exposure plays an integral role in limiting canopy height, potentially reducing aboveground carbon accumulation in older tropical forests.
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| 5. |
- Al-Ajmi, Adel M., et al.
(författare)
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A new 3D stability model for the design of non-vertical wellbores
- 2006
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is known to be too conservative in estimating the critical mud pressure required to maintain wellbore stability, due to ignoring the strengthening effect of the intermediate principal stress. To eliminate this deficiency, we have developed a new analytical model to estimate the mud pressure required to avoid shear failure at the wall of non-vertical boreholes (i.e., the collapse pressure). This has been achieved by using a linear elastic and isotropic constitutive model for the stresses, and the Mogi-Coulomb criterion to predict failure. For comparison, the stability analysis has been also carried out using Mohr-Coulomb, the modified Lade criterion, and the Drucker-Prager criterion. We have found that implementing the Mogi-Coulomb law instead of Mohr-Coulomb does indeed lessen the conservative nature of the wellbore stability analysis. In general, the Mogi-Coulomb criterion gives an estimate of the collapse pressure that is similar to that given by the modified Lade criterion in polyaxial stress states, and similar to Mohr-Coulomb in triaxial stress states. By comparison, the Drucker-Prager criterion always underestimates the required mud weight. The developed 3D stability model has been applied in a field case study.
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| 6. |
- Al-ajmi, A.M, et al.
(författare)
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Relation between the Mogi and the Coulomb failure criteria
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Rock Mechanics And Mining Sciences. - : Elsevier BV. - 1365-1609 .- 1873-4545. ; 42:3, s. 431-439
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have shown that linear Mogi criterion does a good job in representing rock failureunder polyaxial stress states. When σ2 = σ3 the linear version of Mogi's triaxial failurecriterion reduces exactly to the Coulomb criterion. Hence, the linear Mogi criterion can be thought of as a natural extension of the Coulomb criterion into three dimensions (i.e., polyaxial stress space). As Mohr's extension of the Coulomb criterion into three dimensions is often referred to as the Mohr-Coulomb criterion, we propose that the linear version of the Mogi criterion be known as the "Mogi-Coulomb" failure criterion. The classical Coulomb failure criterion can therefore be thought of as a special case, which applies only when σ2 = σ3 of the more general linear Mogi failure criterion. Furthermore, we found that the numerical values of the parameters that appear in the Mogi-Coulombcriterion can be estimated from conventional triaxial test data. Thus, this polyaxial failurecriterion can be applied even in the absence of polyaxial (true triaxial) data. This offers a great advantage, as most laboratories are equipped to conduct only traditional σ2 = σ3tests. Finally, we showed that if the linear form of the Mogi criterion is used, the parameters that appear in it can be unambiguously related to the traditional parameters appearing in the Coulomb failure law. The lack of such a relationship for the parameters appearing in the power-law Mogi criterion has been cited in [8] as a major drawback to the use of that model.
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| 7. |
- Al-Ajmi, Adel M., et al.
(författare)
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Stability analysis of vertical boreholes using the Mogi-Coulomb failure criterion
- 2006
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Ingår i: International Journal of Rock Mechanics And Mining Sciences. - : Elsevier BV. - 1365-1609 .- 1873-4545. ; 43:8, s. 1200-1211
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main aspect of wellbore stability analysis is the selection of an appropriate rock failure criterion. The most commonly used criterion for brittle failure of rocks is the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. This criterion involves only the maximum and minimum principal stresses, a, and sigma(3), and therefore assumes that the intermediate stress 92 has no influence on rock strength. As the Mohr-Coulomb criterion ignores the strengthening effect of the intermediate stress, it is expected to be too conservative in estimating the critical mud weight required to maintain wellbore stability. Recently, Al-Ajmi and Zimmerman [Relationship between the parameters of the Mogi and Coulomb failure criterion. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 2005;42(3):431-39.] developed the Mogi-Coulomb failure criterion, and showed that it is reasonably accurate in modelling polyaxial failure data from a variety of rocks. We then develop a model for the stability of vertical boreholes, using linear elasticity theory to calculate the stresses, and the fully-polyaxial Mogi-Coulomb criterion to predict failure. Our model leads to easily computed expressions for the critical mud weight required to maintain wellbore stability.
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| 8. |
- Al-Ajmi, Adel, 1975-
(författare)
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Wellbore stability analysis based on a new true-triaxial failure criterion
- 2006
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A main aspect of wellbore stability analysis is the selection of an appropriate rock failure criterion. The most commonly used criterion for brittle failure of rocks is the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. This criterion involves only the maximum and minimum principal stresses, s1 and s3, and therefore assumes that the intermediate stress s2 has no influence on rock strength. When the Mohr-Coulomb criterion had been developed, it was justified by experimental evidence from conventional triaxial tests (s1>s2=s3). Based on triaxial failure mechanics, the Mohr-Coulomb criterion has been extensively used to represent rock failure under the polyaxial stress state (s1>s2>s3). In contrast to the predictions of Mohr-Coulomb criterion, much evidence has been accumulating to suggest that s2 does indeed have a strengthening effect. In this research, I have shown that Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion only represents the triaxial stress state (s2=s3 or s2=s1), which is a special case that will only occasionally be encountered in situ. Accordingly, I then developed a new true-triaxial failure criterion called the Mogi-Coulomb criterion. This failure criterion is a linear failure envelope in the Mogi domain (toct-sm,2 space) which can be directly related to the Coulomb strength parameters, cohesion and friction angle. This linear failure criterion has been justified by experimental evidence from triaxial tests as well as polyaxial tests. It is a natural extension of the classical Coulomb criterion into three dimensions. As the Mohr-Coulomb criterion only represents rock failure under triaxial stress states, it is expected to be too conservative in predicting wellbore instability. To overcome this problem, I have developed a new 3D analytical model to estimate the mud pressure required to avoid shear failure at the wall of vertical, horizontal and deviated boreholes. This has been achieved by using linear elasticity theory to calculate the stresses, and the fully-polyaxial Mogi-Coulomb criterion to predict failure. The solution is achieved in closed-form for vertical wellbores, for all stress regimes. For deviated or horizontal wellbores, Mathcad programs have been written to evaluate the solution. These solutions have been applied to several field cases available in the literature, and the new model in each case seems to be consistent with the field experience.
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| 9. |
- Al-Marooqi, S.H, et al.
(författare)
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Pore-Scale modelling of NMR relaxation for the characterization of wettability
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering. - : Elsevier BV. - 0920-4105 .- 1873-4715. ; 52:1-4, s. 172-186
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several research groups are currently investigating the determination of wettability usingNMR relaxation times. Although correlations with traditional wettability indices have been presented with some success, further effort is needed to relate the wettability atpore-scale to a core-scale measurement of NMR response. For example, a qualitative method using the arithmetic mean of relaxation times at various saturations has been presented [Guan, H., Brougham, D., Sorbie, K.S., Packer, K.J., 2002. Wettability effects in a sandstone reservoir and outcrop cores from NMR relaxation time distributions. J. Petroleum Sci. and Eng. 34, 35-54] and a wettability index that quantifies the amount of surface area that is wetted either by oil or by water, by using the T2 peak at four different saturations has been proposed [Fleury, M., Deflandre, F., 2003. Quantitative evaluation of porous media wettability using NMR relaxometry. Mag. Reson. Imaging 21, 385-387]. Our group at the Imperial College have previously shown experimentally that the T2 distribution provides valuable information about wettability and overall fluid distribution within thepore-space, which is lost if only a single value from the T2 distribution is considered [Al-Mahrooqi, S.H., Grattoni, C.A., Moss, A.K., Jing, X.D., 2003. An investigation of the effect ofwettability on NMR characteristics of sandstone rock and fluid systems. J. Petroleum Sci. and Eng. 39, 389-398]. In this paper we use a simple pore-scale model to understand the effect of wetting and its relationship with NMR relaxation times. The model uses triangular capillary pores with a given pore size distribution. The oil/water distribution within thepores is obtained as a function of capillary pressure and wettability. At a given capillary pressure, the volumes and surface areas of water and oil are calculated for each individual pore. This allows us to calculate the theoretical T2 distribution for that pore size distribution as a function of wettability and saturation. We have used the model to study the T2 distribution for a range of wettabilities and saturations. Results from the model confirmed previous observations from experiments regarding the effect of wettability onNMR T2 distributions. Based on these qualitative results, an improved index for characterising wettability from the T2 distribution has been proposed. We tested the proposed index using NMR T2 data from synthetic and real sandstone core plugs with different wettabilities, ranging from strongly water-wet to strongly oil-wet. Comparison between the proposed index and wettability for the synthetic samples and Amott-Harvey index for core plugs show good correlation.
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| 10. |
- Al-Wardy, W, et al.
(författare)
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Effective stress law for the permeability of clay-rich sandstones
- 2004
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 109:4, s. 1-10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two models of clay-rich sandstones are analyzed to explain the relative sensitivity ofpermeability to pore pressure and confining pressure. In one model the clay lines the entire pore wall in a layer of uniform thickness, and in the second model the clay is distributed in the form of particles that are only weakly coupled to the pore walls. Equations of elasticity and fluid flow are solved for both models, giving expressions for theeffective stress coefficients in terms of clay content and the elastic moduli of the rock andclay. Both models predict that the permeability will be much more sensitive to changes in pore pressure than to changes in confining pressure. The clay particle model gives somewhat better agreement with data from the literature and with new data on a Staintonsandstone having a solid volume fraction of 8% clay.
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