| 1. |
- Acosta, R. P., et al.
(författare)
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A Model-Data Comparison of the Hydrological Response to Miocene Warmth : Leveraging the MioMIP1 Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble
- 2024
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 39:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Miocene (23.03-5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern-day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early-to-middle (E2MMIO; 20.03-11.6 Ma) and middle-to-late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5-5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model-data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by similar to 2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern-day tropics; mid and high-latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model-data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. This study looks at Earth's hydrological cycle during the Miocene (23-5 million years ago). During this period, the Earth's climate was 3-7 degrees C warmer than today, with carbon dioxide (CO2) estimates ranging between 400 and 850 ppm. Understanding how the hydrological cycle responded during warmer climate conditions can give us insight into what might happen as the Earth gets warmer. We analyzed a suite of Miocene paleoclimate simulations with different CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and compared them against fossil plant data, which gives an estimate of the average annual rainfall during the period. We found that during the Miocene global rainfall increased by about 2.1%-2.3% for each degree of warming. The models agree that the tropics, mid- and high-latitude, became wetter than they are today but have lower agreement on whether subtropical areas got wetter or drier as they warmed. Compared to proxies, models consistently underestimated how much rain fell in a year, especially in the mid- to high-latitude. This illustrates the challenges in reconstructing the Miocene's hydrological cycle and suggests that the models might not fully capture the range of uncertainties associated with changes in the hydrological cycle due to warming or other factors that differentiated the Miocene. A multi-model comparison of the hydrological cycle in early-to-middle and middle-to-late Miocene simulations is conductedModels generally agree on wetter than modern tropics, middle and high latitudes, but not on the sign of subtropical precipitation changesModel-data comparison shows mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes
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| 2. |
- Burls, N. J., et al.
(författare)
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Simulating Miocene Warmth : Insights From an Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble (MioMIP1)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 36:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03-5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75-14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by similar to 2 degrees C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to similar to 1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.
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| 3. |
- Bradshaw, Catherine D., et al.
(författare)
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Hydrological impact of Middle Miocene Antarctic ice-free areas coupled to deep ocean temperatures
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14, s. 429-436
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Oxygen isotopes from ocean sediments (δ18O) used to reconstruct past continental ice volumes additionally record deep water temperatures (DWTs). Traditionally, these are assumed to be coupled (ice-volume changes cause DWT changes). However, δ18O records during peak Middle Miocene warmth (~16–15 million years ago) document large rapid fluctuations (~1–1.5‰) difficult to explain as huge Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) volume changes. Here, using climate modelling and data comparisons, we show DWTs are coupled to AIS spatial extent, not volume, because Antarctic albedo changes modify the hydrological cycle, affecting Antarctic deep water production regions. We suggest the Middle Miocene AIS had retreated substantially from previous Oligocene maxima. The residual ice sheet varied spatially more rapidly on orbital timescales than previously thought, enabling large DWT swings (up to 4 °C). When Middle Miocene warmth terminated (~13 million years ago) and a continent-scale AIS had stabilized, further ice-volume changes were predominantly in height rather than extent, with little impact on DWT. Our findings imply a shift in ocean sensitivity to ice-sheet changes occurs when AIS retreat exposes previously ice-covered land; associated feedbacks could reduce the Earth system’s ability to maintain a large AIS. This demonstrates ice-sheet changes should be characterized not only by ice volume but also by spatial extent.
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| 4. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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DeepMIP : model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:1, s. 203-227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, similar to 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org , last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 degrees C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.
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| 5. |
- Coxall, Helen K., et al.
(författare)
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Export of nutrient rich Northern Component Water preceded early Oligocene Antarctic glaciation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 11:3, s. 190-196
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The onset of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation is thought to have coincided with Antarctic ice-sheet growth about 34 million years ago (Ma). However, this timing is debated, in part due to questions over the geochemical signature of the ancient Northern Component Water (NCW) formed in the deep North Atlantic. Here we present detailed geochemical records from North Atlantic sediment cores located close to sites of deep-water formation. We find that prior to 36 Ma, the northwestern Atlantic was stratified, with nutrient-rich, low-salinity bottom waters. This restricted basin transitioned into a conduit for NCW that began flowing southwards approximately one million years before the initial Antarctic glaciation. The probable trigger was tectonic adjustments in subarctic seas that enabled an increased exchange across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. The increasing surface salinity and density strengthened the production of NCW. The late Eocene deep-water mass differed in its carbon isotopic signature from modern values as a result of the leakage of fossil carbon from the Arctic Ocean. Export of this nutrient-laden water provided a transient pulse of CO2 to the Earth system, which perhaps caused short-term warming, whereas the long-term effect of enhanced NCW formation was a greater northward heat transport that cooled Antarctica.
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| 6. |
- de Boer, Agatha M., et al.
(författare)
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The control of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies on the position of the Subtropical Front
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9275 .- 2169-9291. ; 118:10, s. 5669-5675
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent years the latitudinal position of the Subtropical Front (STF) has emerged as a key parameter in the global climate. A poleward positioned front is thought to allow a greater salt flux from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean and so drive a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here the common view that the STF aligns with the zero wind stress curl (WSC) is challenged. Based on the STF climatologies of Orsi et al. (1995), Belkin and Gordon (1996), Graham and De Boer (2013), and on satellite scatterometry winds, we find that the zero WSC contour lies on average ∼10°, ∼8°, and ∼5° poleward of the front for the three climatologies, respectively. The circulation in the region between the Subtropical Gyres and the zero WSC contour is not forced by the WSC but rather by the strong bottom pressure torque that is a result of the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with the ocean floor topography. The actual control of the position of the STF is crucially dependent on whether the front is regarded as simply a surface water mass boundary or a dynamical front. For the Agulhas Leakage problem, the southern boundary of the so-called Super Gyre may be the most relevant property but this cannot easily be identified in observations.
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| 7. |
- Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara, et al.
(författare)
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The Relationship Between the Global Mean Deep-Sea and Surface Temperature During the Early Eocene
- 2023
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 38:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estimates of global mean near-surface air temperature (global SAT) for the Cenozoic era rely largely on paleo-proxy data of deep-sea temperature (DST), with the assumption that changes in global SAT covary with changes in the global mean deep-sea temperature (global DST) and global mean sea-surface temperature (global SST). We tested the validity of this assumption by analyzing the relationship between global SST, SAT, and DST using 25 different model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project simulating the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) with varying CO2 levels. Similar to the modern situation, we find limited spatial variability in DST, indicating that local DST estimates can be regarded as a first order representative of global DST. In line with previously assumed relationships, linear regression analysis indicates that both global DST and SAT respond stronger to changes in atmospheric CO2 than global SST by a similar factor. Consequently, this model-based analysis validates the assumption that changes in global DST can be used to estimate changes in global SAT during the early Cenozoic. Paleo-proxy estimates of global DST, SST, and SAT during EECO show the best fit with model simulations with a 1,680 ppm atmospheric CO2 level. This matches paleo-proxies of EECO atmospheric CO2, indicating a good fit between models and proxy-data.
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| 8. |
- Graham, Robert M., et al.
(författare)
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Identifying sources and transport pathways of iron in the Southern Ocean
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Ingår i: Deep Sea Research Part I. - 0967-0637 .- 1879-0119.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over large regions of the global ocean primary productivity is limited by the availability of dissolved iron. Changes in the supply of iron to these regions could have major impacts on primary productivity and the carbon cycle. One of the largest sources of dissolved iron to the ocean is thought to be from shelf sediments, and this source is often parameterized in biogeochemical models as a depth dependent iron flux through the seafloor. Using the knowledge that Southern Ocean surface waters are iron limited, we infer source regions of iron to the Southern Ocean by identifying where the most intense chlorophyll blooms develop. We further derive surface current patterns from satellite sea surface height fields to assess the role of the ocean circulation in transporting iron away from these source regions. We find a tight relationship between satellite chlorophyll concentrations and sea surface height. Large chlorophyll blooms develop on the shelf and where the western boundary currents detach from the continental shelves and turn eastward into the Southern Ocean. This is likely due to shelf supplied iron becoming entrained into western boundary currents and advected into the Southern Ocean along the Dynamical Subtropical Front. The most intense chlorophyll blooms are located along coastal margins of islands and continents. Blooms do not develop over submerged seamounts or plateaus in the open ocean. This suggests that shelf sediments in coastal regions act as large bioavailable iron sources to the Southern Ocean. We recommend that a more accurate method of parameterizing the shelf sediment iron flux could be to prescribe this flux only through grid cells neighboring coastlines. Finally, we hypothesize how changes in sea level during glacial-interglacial cycles may have altered the distribution of shelf sediment iron sources in the Southern Ocean and helped to drive export production anomalies in the Sub-Antarctic Zone.
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| 9. |
- Graham, Robert M., et al.
(författare)
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Inferring source regions and supply mechanisms of iron in the Southern Ocean from satellite chlorophyll data
- 2015
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Ingår i: Deep Sea Research Part I. - : Elsevier BV. - 0967-0637 .- 1879-0119. ; 104, s. 9-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Primary productivity is limited by the availability of iron over large areas of the global ocean. Changes in the supply of iron to these regions could have major impacts on primary productivity and the carbon cycle. However, source regions and supply mechanisms of iron to the global oceans remain poorly constrained. Shelf sediments are considered one of the largest sources of dissolved iron to the global ocean, and a large shelf sediment iron flux is prescribed in many biogeochemical models over all areas of bathymetry shallower than 1000 m. Here, we infer the likely location of shelf sediment iron sources in the Southern Ocean, by identifying where satellite chlorophyll concentrations are enhanced over shallow bathymetry (< 1000 m). We further compare chlorophyll concentrations with the position of ocean fronts, to assess the relative role of horizontal advection and upwelling for supplying iron to the ocean surface. We show that mean annual chlorophyll concentrations are not visibly enhanced over areas of shallow bathymetry that are located more than 500 km from a coastline. Mean annual chlorophyll concentrations > 2 mg m(-3) are only found within 50 km of a continental or island coastline. These results suggest that sedimentary iron sources only exist on continental and island shelves. Large sedimentary iron fluxes do not seem present on seamounts and submerged plateaus. Large chlorophyll blooms develop where the western boundary currents detach from the continental shelves, and turn eastward into the Sub-Antarctic Zone. Chlorophyll concentrations are enhanced along contours of sea surface height extending off the continental shelves, as shown by the trajectories of virtual water parcels in satellite altimetry data. These analyses support the hypothesis that bioavailable iron from continental shelves is entrained into western boundary currents, and advected into the Sub-Antarctic Zone along the Dynamical Subtropical Front. Our results indicate that upwelling at fronts in the open ocean is unlikely to deliver iron to the ocean surface from deep sources. Finally, we hypothesise how a reduction in sea level may have altered the distribution of shelf sediment iron sources in the Southern Ocean and increased export production over the Sub-Antarctic Zone during glacial intervals.
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| 10. |
- Graham, Robert M., et al.
(författare)
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Southern Ocean fronts : Controlled by wind or topography?
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 117
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The location of fronts has a direct influence on both the physical and biological processes in the Southern Ocean. Here we explore the relative importance of bottom topography and winds for the location of Southern Ocean fronts, using 100 years of a control and climate change simulation from the high resolution coupled climate model HiGEM. Topography has primary control on the number and intensity of fronts at each longitude. However, there is no strong relationship between the position or spacing of jets and underlying topographic gradients because of the effects of upstream and downstream topography. The Southern Hemisphere Westerlies intensify and shift south by 1.3 degrees in the climate change simulation, but there is no comparable meridional displacement of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's (ACC) path or the fronts within its boundaries, even over flat topography. Instead, the current contracts meridionally and weakens. North of the ACC, the Subtropical Front (STF) shifts south gradually, even over steep topographic ridges. We suggest the STF reacts more strongly to the wind shift because it is strongly surface intensified. In contrast, fronts within the ACC are more barotropic and are therefore more sensitive to the underlying topography. An assessment of different methods for identifying jets reveals that maxima of gradients in the sea surface height field are the most reliable. Approximating the position of fronts using sea surface temperature gradients is ineffective at high latitudes while using sea surface height contours can give misleading results when studying the temporal variability of front locations.
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