| 1. |
- De Bruin, Wändi Bruine, et al.
(författare)
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Asking about Social Circles Improves Election Predictions Even with Many Political Parties
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Opinion Research. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0954-2892 .- 1471-6909. ; 34:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants' own voting intentions. In four elections, we previously found that we could improve predictions by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. A potential concern is that the social-circle question might predict results less well in elections with larger numbers of political options because it becomes harder to accurately track how social contacts plan to vote. However, we now find that the social-circle question performs better than the own-intention question in predicting two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands' 2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.
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| 2. |
- Bruine de Bruin, Wändi, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of anti- vs. pro-vaccine narratives on responses by recipients varying in numeracy : A cross-sectional survey-based experiment
- 2017
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Ingår i: Medical Decision Making. - 0272-989X. ; 37:8, s. 860-870
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. To inform their health decisions, patients may seek narratives describing other patients' evaluations of their treatment experiences. Narratives can provide anti-treatment or pro-treatment evaluative meaning that low-numerate patients may especially struggle to derive from statistical information. Here, we examined whether anti-vaccine (v. pro-vaccine) narratives had relatively stronger effects on the perceived informativeness and judged vaccination probabilities reported among recipients with lower (v. higher) numeracy. Methods. Participants (n = 1,113) from a nationally representative US internet panel were randomly assigned to an anti-vaccine or pro-vaccine narrative, as presented by a patient discussing a personal experience, a physician discussing a patient's experience, or a physician discussing the experiences of 50 patients. Anti-vaccine narratives described flu experiences of patients who got the flu after getting vaccinated; pro-vaccine narratives described flu experiences of patients who got the flu after not getting vaccinated. Participants indicated their probability of getting vaccinated and rated the informativeness of the narratives. Results. Participants with lower numeracy generally perceived narratives as more informative. By comparison, participants with higher numeracy rated especially anti-vaccine narratives as less informative. Anti-vaccine narratives reduced the judged vaccination probabilities as compared with pro-vaccine narratives, especially among participants with lower numeracy. Mediation analyses suggested that low-numerate individuals' vaccination probabilities were reduced by anti-vaccine narratives - and, to a lesser extent, boosted by pro-vaccine narratives - because they perceived narratives to be more informative. These findings were similar for narratives provided by patients and physicians. Conclusions. Patients with lower numeracy may rely more on narrative information when making their decisions. These findings have implications for the development of health communications and decision AIDS.
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| 3. |
- Del Missier, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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Decision-making Competence, Executive Functioning, and General Cognitive Abilities
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. - : Wiley. - 0894-3257 .- 1099-0771. ; 25:4, s. 331-351
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although previous studies investigated the relationship between general cognitive abilities and decision making, few have characterized specific cognitive abilities underlying decision-making competence. In this paper, we focus on executive functionscontrol processes involved in the regulation of cognition. Specifically, we report on an individual-differences study that investigated the relationship of executive functioning (EF) and general cognitive abilities (fluid intelligence and numeracy) with different aspects of decision-making competence. Individual differences in EF components explained aspects of decision-making competence even after controlling for fluid intelligence and numeracy. However, different aspects of decision-making competence varied in the extent to which they relied on different executive functions. In particular, resistance to framing effects, the ability to apply decision rules, and successful engagement in cognitive reflection partially depend on individual differences on the monitoring/inhibition dimension of EF. The ability to provide consistent judgments in risk perception is related to the shifting aspect of EF. The ability to recognize social norms and resistance to sunk costs were not significantly related to EF, thus supporting the idea that executive control is not a major determinant of these aspects of decision-making competence. Finally, substantial variance in some of the decision-making tasks remained unexplained, suggesting that other cognitive or non-cognitive abilities need to be considered in future studies.
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| 4. |
- Del Missier, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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Decision-Making Competence in Older Adults : A Rosy View From a Longitudinal Investigation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Psychology and Aging. - : American Psychological Association (APA). - 0882-7974 .- 1939-1498. ; 35:4, s. 553-564
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cross-sectional studies have suggested age-related differences in decision-making competence, but these differences may also reflect cohort-related effects. We present a longitudinal study of age-related changes over 5 years in older adults (aged 60-85) for 3 important aspects of decision-making competence: resistance to framing, applying decision rules, and resistance to sunk costs. The findings show small age-related longitudinal declines in resistance to framing but no decline in applying decision rules or resistance to sunk costs. The results also indicate that individuals' decision-making competence after 5 years is significantly related to their initial decision-making competence assessment and that the contribution of crystallized abilities to decision making in older adults is greater than previously thought.
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| 5. |
- Del Missier, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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Executive functions in decision making : An individual differences approach
- 2010
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Ingår i: Thinking and Reasoning. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1354-6783 .- 1464-0708. ; 16:2, s. 69-97
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This individual differences study examined the relationships between three executive functions (updating, shifting, and inhibition), measured as latent variables, and performance on two cognitively demanding subtests of the Adult Decision Making Competence battery: Applying Decision Rules and Consistency in Risk Perception. Structural equation m delling showed that executive functions contribute differentially to performance in these two tasks, with Applying Decision Rules being mainly related to inhibition and Consistency in Risk Perception mainly associated to shifting. The results suggest that the successful application of decision rules requires the capacity to selectively focus attention and inhibit irrelevant (or no more relevant) stimuli. They also suggest that consistency in risk perception depends on the ability to shift between judgement contexts.
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| 6. |
- Del Missier, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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Predictors of Decision Making Across the Adult Life-Span : An Individual-Differences Study
- 2016
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Age-related decline in complex cognitive tasks has been explained by changes in sensory functioning, processing speed, and working memory. However, there is still no agreement on the relative importance of these factors, and their relative role in decision making has not been investigated. In an individual-difference study on a population-based Swedish sample of adults (N = 563, age range 30-89), we disentangled the contribution of sensory decline, processing speed, and working memory measures to age-related changes in three cognitively-demanding decision-making tasks of the Adult Decision-Making Competence Battery (Resistance to Framing, Applying Decision Rules, Under/Overconfidence). Structural equation modeling showed that working memory is a significant predictor even when the influence of sensory variables, processing speed, and education (as a control for cohort effects) is taken into account. Moreover, the effects of sensory functioning and processing speed on decision making were mediated by working memory. These findings indicate that the age-related decline in complex decision-making tasks may not be entirely explained by changes in lower-level processes, highlighting the functional role of working memory processes.
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| 7. |
- Del Missier, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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The Multifold Relationship Between Memory and Decision Making : An Individual-Differences Study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory and Cognition. - : American Psychological Association (APA). - 0278-7393 .- 1939-1285. ; 39:5, s. 1344-1364
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several judgment and decision-making tasks are assumed to involve memory functions, but significant knowledge gaps on the memory processes underlying these tasks remain. In a study on 568 adults between 25 and 80 years of age, hypotheses were tested on the specific relationships between individual differences in working memory, episodic memory, and semantic memory, respectively, and 6 main components of decision-making competence, In line with the hypotheses, working memory was positively related with the more cognitively demanding tasks (Resistance to Framing, Applying Decision Rules, and Under/Overconfidence), whereas episodic memory was positively associated with a more experience-based judgment task (Recognizing Social Norms). Furthermore, semantic memory was positively related with 2 more knowledge-based decision-making tasks (Consistency in Risk Perception and Resistance to Sunk Costs). Finally, the age-related decline observed in some of the decision-making tasks was (partially or totally) mediated by the age-related decline in working memory or episodic memory. These findings are discussed in relation to the functional roles fulfilled by different memory processes in judgment and decision-making tasks.
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| 8. |
- Del Missier, Fabio, et al.
(författare)
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Unraveling the Aging Skein : Disentangling Sensory and Cognitive Predictors of Age-related Differences in Decision Making
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. - : Wiley. - 0894-3257 .- 1099-0771. ; 30:1, s. 123-139
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Age-related differences in sensory functioning, processing speed, and working memory have been identified as three significant predictors of the age-related performance decline observed in complex cognitive tasks. Yet, the assessment of their relative predictive capacity and interrelations is still an open issue in decision making and cognitive aging research. Indeed, no previous investigation has examined the relationships of all these three predictors with decision making. In an individual-differences study, we therefore disentangled the relative contribution of sensory functioning, processing speed, and working memory to the prediction of the age-related decline in cognitively demanding judgment and decision-making tasks. Structural equation modeling showed that the age-related decline in working memory plays an important predictive role, even when controlling for sensory functioning, processing speed, and education. Implications for research on decision making and cognitive aging are discussed.
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| 9. |
- Eriksson, Gabriella
(författare)
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On Physical Relations in Driving: Judgements, Cognition and Perception
- 2014
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Drivers need to make judgements of physical relationships related to driving speed, such as mean speed, risks, travel time and fuel consumption, in order to make optimal choices of vehicle speed. This is also the case for the general public, politicians and other stakeholders who are engaged in traffic issues. This thesis investigates how drivers’ judgements of travel time (Study I and II), fuel consumption (Study III) and mean speed (Study IV) relate to actual physical measures.A cognitive time-saving bias has been found in judgements of travel time. The time saving bias implies that people overestimate the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed and underestimate the time saved when increasing speed from a low speed. Previous studies have mainly investigated the bias from a cognitive perspective in questionnaires. In Study I the bias was shown to be present when participants were engaged in a driving simulator task where participants primarily rely on perceptual cues. Study II showed that intuitive time saving judgements can be debiased by presenting drivers with an alternative speedometer that indicate the inverted speed in minutes per kilometre.In Study III, judgements of fuel consumption at increasing and decreasing speeds were examined, and the results showed systematic deviations from correct measures. In particular, professional truck drivers underestimated the fuel saving effect of a decrease in speed. Study IV showed that subjective mean speed judgements differed from objective mean speeds and could predict route choice better than objective mean speeds. The results indicate that biases in these judgements are robust and that they predict behaviour.The thesis concludes that judgements of mean speeds, time savings and fuel consumption systematically deviate from physical measures. The results have implications for predicting travel behaviour and the design of driver feedback systems.
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| 10. |
- Kause, Astrid, et al.
(författare)
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Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports : a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines
- 2022
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.
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